Wednesday, January 19, 2011

"Guess who's coming to dinner..."
- The 1967 classic film starring Spencer Tracy and Sidney Poitier

1:15 PM Wednesday 1.19.2011  An important message to all readers: Starting 12 noon Friday, we will initiate a site transfer. The URL of this page http://footsforecast.blogspot.com/  will return to the familiar URL of (http://www.footsforecast.org/).

LATE WEEK STORM WATCH For our latest analyses on the Thursday-Friday event, please visit the new Winter Stormcast Zone.

For details on changes to our website, Please read this FAQ, containing the important context of doing this to provide students, teachers, and our readers in all 50 states, with direct access to Web 2.0 skills in a 21st century world of rapidly advancing technology.

EASTERN U.S. ROUNDUP Wintry precipitation is decreasing the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, having produced school delays in Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania. Light snow associated with an upper level shortwave system doused New York and New England with light accumulations. Rain showers with a second weak coastal system were observed across the Carolinas. The Southeast is enjoying a first real day of pleasant weather in the new year with abundant sunshine and normal temperatures for mid-January.

The real question...who's coming to dinner?  If you live in the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic or Northeast, and a parent of school age children, teacher, administrator or transporation manager...dinner guests tonight will include the datebook and child care contact list. Why? A strong pulse of Arctic air will move into the Upper Plains today and reach the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday night. The National Weather Service advisory map shows another expanding swath of Winter Weather Advisories, Watches and Warnings -- all heading east once again. Our detailed analyses in the Winter Stormcast Zone, as well as found in the second tab from the left. A new update will be posted later this evening.

Winter Storm Watches are bleeding eastward across the Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania and West Virginia ahead of a strengthening low pressure system moving with the Arctic front. These areas are already expecting 4-8" starting Thursday afternoon. Watches are likely to be hoisted once again for the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast, to take effect Thursday afternoon night. With a fresh resupply of Arctic air and a cooling boundary layer, by Friday morning, we expect areas from the Blue Ridge of WV & western MD to the Washington-Philadelphia metro corridor to see accumulating snow. At this time, it is uncertain whether this storm has the potential to be "significant" (4" or more). Our Winter Stormcast Team will re-analyze data projections this afternoon and evening.


REGIONAL ROUNDUP FROM TUESDAY 1.18.2011

EASTERN U.S. "Round One" delivered a wintry mix to the Mid-Atlantic and has reached New England. These areas have received disruptive to significant icing as well as heavy snow in parts of New England. Another round of travel disruptions are affecting commuters in the I-95 corridor from Washington to Boston. Winter Storm Warnings blanket much of the interior Northeast just outside the major cities. However, this latest winter weather event has again closed or delayed schools, colleges and universities. Overnight temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic may refreeze standing water and slush, producing another round of school delays at a critical when those in the public schools are working to complete quarter/semester projects (students) and grades or midterms (teachers).

Meanwhile, the Southeast U.S. continues to thaw and remove slush from last week's winter weather, as school systems work to reschedule up to six missed days. Additional details about local reports from our Florida, Georgia, Carolina teams can be found in the Eastern U.S. tab in the menu bar above.

"Round Two" will be brief upper-level system to move from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday. "Round Three" is projected to develop on the heels of "Two" by Thursday night. This storm may encounter significantly colder air in place along the East coast than presently observed. Details on our team forecasts for these events are posted in the Winter Stormcast Zone and on its companion facebook pages.

As part of our transition to "main page zones," our Central Maryland Team has begun posting updates both on this on this site and in their Facebook Forecast Center. Several inches of snow was observed in our Central PA and Southeast PA zones, producing closings and delays there as well. Freezing rain has turned to plain rain across the Capital Region of DC / Southern Maryland, as well as the Bayshore of Eastern MD and Delaware.

Winter Weather Advisories across the Mid-Atlantic will expire early this afternoon while Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect from eastern Pennsylvania into northern New England. These areas are expected to see a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain well into tonight.

CENTRAL U.S. A much stronger push of Arctic air will arrive Wednesday with highs in mid 20's and chance of a flurry. Thursday: Forecast is coming together, our next Winter Storm is due in over the day on Thursday. Low will track just South of the area and lift will be the greatest during the afternoon hours. If you live near Dayton, Ohio check out http://daytonweather.org/ for a more in depth look!
In the Upper Great Lakes by mid-week, delivering extremely cold conditions. You can monitor impacts to the forecast for these regions by visiting our Central U.S. page with updates from Lead Forecaster Terence Keaser in the Ohio Valley and Affiliate Forecaster Joe Puma in metro Chicago.


WESTERN U.S. The heavy precipitation has ended across the Pacific Northwest, but flooding still continues. Numerous streams and rivers were above flood stage as of this morning, but most have crested and will continue to recede. A heavy snowfall potential twill arrive today across the Colorado Rockies, the central Plains and into the middle Mississippi Valley.

(Updates by Advisors Lear and Foot, with contributions from the Eastern U.S. Forecast Team)

79 comments:

Stephanie said...

Wow! The site looks great! Kudos to the team! Hope it's okay to start posting!

Mary said...

This looks GREAT!!!!!!!!!! Very exciting all around for all of you. Look how far you have come..... Congrats!

Julee said...

GREAT new look!
40,000 readers ... 50 states ...100 countries ... you've created a Weather Wonderland website!

Bonnie said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
The Eastern U.S. Team said...

Thanks everyone! More zones will be added in the forecast center section as we finalize the format.
Glad you like the look and feel of the site.

BioPat said...

Outstanding job team!! I love the the entire format, especially the return of the map and radar links.

NeedaSnowday said...

CHA-CHING! Nice job.. hope this site has better "reception" at school!

rob.badboy said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Bonnie said...

Uh Oh....what happened to the comments on the main page???

Hopefully they come back soon!

Mary said...

Bonnie, I was wondering the same thing. Wanted to see what everyone said about this morning and their thoughts for tonight as well as Thursday night

Tina said...

See the Foot comment at the bottom of this comment page...

NeedaSnowday said...

I am not as fond of this comment format. Plus, Julee cant change her bird avatars, Andy cant display the Manwich and we will now know if we are talkin' with Julie/Daniel...

Word verification isnt my fav either.. ok.. dont complainin'

Bonnie said...

I did read the comment about "back to the future" but both comment spots were available earlier...wahh....

And I agree Needy....don't complain....they are busy at work on the new site...just like to "play with my comment friends" especially since it's a snow day! :()

Amy said...

I for one am glad they called this even though it delays our exams. My dog can barely walk on the deck and my husband sounded like he needed a jackhammer to clear the ice off his windshield this morning.

Cathy in Bel Air said...

Like the new site, don't like jumping through hoops to make a comment! Will that remain in the final edition?

terpguy said...

Cathy- No...please see Foots comment at the "Leave your comment" part

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

Finally up to 32.0 degrees. Been below freezing all day. Have been busy, but Friday storm has lots of potential, right now looks like a 3-6 or 4-8 inch event if all goes perfect. Not a lock, but trends are better. Potential larger storm next week, maybe time to break out the Kevlar?

Amy said...

Pat- is this another year for the two week midterm administration? Wish John (your husband?) a happy birthday.

Julee said...

Andy -- unearthing the Kevlar? That makes me happy!
Four to eight inches is a far cry from "chance of snow" that I'm reading on other sites. I like the way you prognosticate!

Really like the new look Mr. Foot, et al. Less cluttered look, like the bigger maps. Who KNEW there were THAT many different kinds of weather maps?

Mary said...

any thoughts on tomorrow morning? Delay anyone? I'm thinking not, but you may all know something I don't

NeedaSnowday said...

Check this out - make sure you ANIMATE!!!!!!

So far out I know.. but if it verifies.. wow!


http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

BioPat said...

Amy, thanks I'll pass along your wishes to the bday man.
So far as extended exams, I think you'll be in exams through next week, but I don't think you'll need a 2 week extension. Maybe you'll get some extra grading time!!
Friday's call s perplexing; I do see snow on its way however the amount is still too early to call. I can see the 3" mark being passed but not sure by how much

BioPat said...

I'm hoping for lots of snow through the next 2 weeks, but no snow the 11/12th of Feb; need to get to Boston overnight.

NeedaSnowday said...

Extend that a bit BP... the annual trek to DisneyWorld is Feb 15th.. we met one of your students down there last year!!

Rob said...

Hope Fridays storm pans out!!

BioPat said...

OK, let's go for storms the beginning and end of February leaving that middle week where we already have a day off alone!

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

I'm still voting to bring back the old comment format. The new site is top notch. I miss the older comment format, but everything will be adjusted and readjusted with time. The current GFS runs show a 3-6 event, maybe 4-8 is possible. For what it is worth Julee, Joel Lundberg thinks 6-12 might be doable in his article today for central MD. I am in the 3-6 camp now, but ot is very early in the game, and it could as always go either way.

Cathy in Bel Air said...

Thanks terpguy....when I saw those squiggly words I had a panic attack and missed that! :) lol

Julie said...

JB fbook post:

Next storm: Snow
Here is a look at the Canadian model for Friday morning. That has been consistent all week with this storm. It will be arriving from the south with ample moisture, but not off of the coast to give us that tease. This should pass just south through VA keeping us mostly in snow. Some mix might be at the start.
It will be a relatively quick mover, but the snow looks to arrive close late Thu evening, and be heaviest between 3am and 8am Friday. Then taper off around or just afternoon. Roughly a 12-14 hour storm. You may speculate by the precip in this time frame, but there has been a trend for us to get less than the models have shown all winter. That is why I am waiting until tomorrow to give my first call.
Add a caption
Next storm: Snow
Here is a look at the Canadian model for Friday morning. That has been consistent all week with this storm. It will be arriving from the south with ample moisture, but not off of the coast to give us that tease. This should pass just south through VA keeping us mostly in snow. Some mix might be at the start.
It will be a relatively quick mover, but the snow looks to arrive close late Thu evening, and be heaviest between 3am and 8am Friday. Then taper off around or just afternoon. Roughly a 12-14 hour storm. You may speculate by the precip in this time frame, but there has been a trend for us to get less than the models have shown all winter. That is why I am waiting until tomorrow to give my first call.

Julie said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Julie said...

miss the "like" feature on the old comments. Well, that and our cute avatar's. But I understand this is a work in progress. And at least I am not a she-him (daniel/julie) anymore lol

Bonnie said...

I never want to wish against snow...ever...but seriously, another snow day on top of today's ice day? And already in a 4 day week? C'mon man!

But....even with all that....3-6" or 4-8" would be quite entertaining! :) It will give us something to watch for the rest of the week too! Sounds like Manwich to me! Wahoo!

Julie said...

no rufus?

Jen - Red Lion said...

Site looks sweet!

It's so foggy out..Eerie.
I'm so ready for the storm Friday morning. One thing to remember. Each storm so far has given us "more" than what was forecasted..at least for us up here, lol...so I anticipate this storm on Thursday/Friday to give us a "surprise"...bring it on.

I think tomorrow, I might make my calls on what I think will happen..lol

Rufus said...

Nobody knows the trouble I've had...LOL!

My drive is beginning to glaze over and it's a little foggy in Catonsville...in the low lands.

Site looks great!

Rufus said...

I'm here MEOW!

Looks like all the usual suspects are as well. So Friday looks like maybe some snow. Saturday is my hubby John's b-day.

Leslie said...

On time tomorrow though, I suppose....

Rufus said...

I like the greens and blues...very nice

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

31.5 degrees after a high of 32.4. Light freezing mist. Looks and feels like the north pole here. Have a solid 4 inch snow pack (some leftover from last event) everywhere and it is shiny. Really bright outside as the moon is coming through a break in the clouds and reflecting off the frozen snow. It looks like winter.

Julee said...

WOWWWWWWWWW! This site looks better and better! I voted for seasonal background, but the green/blue addition is BEAUTIFUL!

Rufus said...

It is winter silly:) I just went out to get something from the car and it's not doing anything but the driveway is icy.

Rufus said...

Julee I really like the blue and green very cool and earthlike.

Hitting the hay. see ya all soon

Rufus said...

Freezing Rain Advisory for Balto County and a few others....be careful

NeedaSnowday said...

Balt Co - one hour late, Car and HoCo - 2 Hours late...

Exam schedule for HoCo now means a "full" day today...

Rufus said...

Having trouble with password...hmmm at least I was I see I'm in :) Good Luck with exams forecasters and student readers.

Ian said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Ravensbbr said...

NE Carroll County is dreary like the UK in winter. North of freezing, but so damp and numbing it makes you wish it was below freezing to take some of the humidity out of the air...

Bring the snow, MD Powderhounds unite!

Amy said...

Really Howard County? Are we going to start calling delays every time it rains? It was 37 and foggy on my drive to work this morning at 6am (2 hour delay was called an hour earlier). Got to school and barely a crystal of ice anywhere.

Rufus said...

I do miss like button and :O from Andy...LOL. Have a great day!

Anonymous said...

Amy,, many teachers live outside hoco and the conditions were different in other areas! I live an hour away and my roads are completely a sheet of ice at 8:30!

Amy said...

While I appreciate that many teachers who work in HoCo do not necessarily live there, it's the road conditions within the county that determine delays and closures. I asked other staff members that live in rural parts of this county how the roads were and they felt the delay was unnecessary. I appreciate caution, but sometimes it is over used.

BioPat said...

Well folks, hope all the school people enjoyed that few extra minutes of shut eye; I for one used it to the max. MSJ is closed Friday for semester break, but our ski trip guys are leaving at 8am for the 7 Springs. Hopefully they'll all get to school for their departure and have a safe weekend. So far as the public schools, sounds like another day at home; I know this is so disruptive during exams, and the thought of more days in June for HoCo is beyond words, hopefully no repeat of last year's June 23rd closure.
Hey Rufus, don't you hate trying to be creative for a birthday gifts in January. Perhaps something that goes with snow would be helpful; or better yet, something to make him think of summer. We got my husband a beach cabana/shelter for his bday - he loved it! Just a thought.

Anonymous said...

Hello Amy! I live in western Ho Co and it was extremely icy at 6 this morning. It could have been very dangerous for students waiting at the bus stop as well as for the buses on the roads. I actually prefer to have the teenage drivers off the roads during icy conditions as well, especially since black ice is just so hard to see. It’s better to be safe than sorry – no need for a tragedy to remind us that a delay is a minor inconvenience in life. Be safe on Friday!

Anonymous said...

Wow! Love the new site! Congrats to the whole team and keep up the fantastic work. You've started a weather revolution!

Julie said...

You know what would be great? If the newest comments posted at the top!

NeedaSnowday said...

Oh dear Julie... were you on this site when it had Foot stumped...kept trying to figure out how to move them to the top!!

Is Friday's potential dwindling? This pattern of weather is just frustrating!

Rob said...

I agree Julie!!

Anonymous said...

I personally find the Foot's website (both the new and old) difficult to navigate. There is too much similar information spread across multiple pages, sections, and websites (i.e., Facebook).

I appreciate the hard work that goes in to providing the information; however, I still feel the information could be organized more effectively.

Julie said...

No NEEDY I wasn't lol so it's not just me. Yes I was all pumped for 3-8 inches now it's seeming to be the measley 1-3

Rufus said...

Hey All. Hope everyone enjoyed the spring day. Rufus is in his perch making sure I don't make any typos LOL!

Amy said...

Julie- Where did you see the 1-3 posted?

Julie said...

ACCUWEATHER

Julie said...

That and NWS -

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/

NWS going with 3-5 for Most of Northern Baltimore/ Harford County. I still think this is a solid 2-4. We will see some of the model trends tonight. Models are bad verbatim this season.

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

Quantitative precipitation NWS STATE COLLEG PA:

QPF forecast looks meager so snow
amounts in excess
of 4 inches will likely have to be due to some high snow-water
ratios which buf kit hints at with a deep dendritic snow growth
zone being approached by a short lived but potent area of upward
vertical motion. Most of this should occur Thursday night and is
addressed below.

HoCoKtchr said...

Andy...I get the 2-4" or 3-5" but the 2nd post was gobbledty gook to me....

Deep dendritic snow growth zone? Does that mean more snow? Less snow? huh???

But wahoo...get to use my old name again!

Julie said...

which buf kit hints at with a deep dendritic snow growth
zone being approached by a short lived but potent area of upward
vertical motion. Most of this should occur Thursday night and is
addressed below.

If I had a smiley face choice right now to post it would be CONFUSED.

Julee said...

Dendritic snow is the kind we get in VERY cold temps. Flakes are very sharp and well defined. Usually fluffy due to the temps.
Not sure what a "deep growth zone" has to do with dendritic snow.

Andy???????

Jen - Red Lion said...

I'm going to stick with my 4-6" more on the higher side for us in SE PA...We'll see how it plays out :)

Ravensbbr said...

Yeah, not going to lie, deep dendritic anything sounds like a skin condition of some kind. :-)

But if it's fluff like Rockies fluff, bring it on! That is fun snow. Just change the name. ;-)

Rufus said...

It sounds like a painful exercise :)I want some snow dagnabitdit!

Ravensbbr said...

for a quick look at snowflakes:

http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/class/class.htm

very informative!

Julie said...

Ravensbbr...I laughed out loud at skin condition. wish I could "like" your comment.

Julie said...

I give up!

JB Fbook page:

Snow Thursday night into Friday morning. A potent little storm, but a fast mover. The race will be on as to how much it can drop as it speeds by. This means it will end sooner on Friday morning. See my notes with the snow map posted below on my page. It will be a little more than a little, but not enough to be a lot.

NeedaSnowday said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
NeedaSnowday said...

Doesnt look good gang.... based on latest models..... horrible pattern this winter.

Jen - Red Lion said...

FF FB says..closer to the MD/PA line will see higher amounts than 2-4...I'm still stuck on my 4-6" for SE PA..lol

Rufus said...

On that note I'm gonna hit the hay. Not being a naybob just tired. JB's map was still saying 3+ in a couple areas...or was that someone elses' map? Whatever...what will be will be :)Now I'm going to go to sleep sing Doris Day music....

Rufus said...

Hmmm no advisory yet. It's warmer than I was hoping and weather bug has removed snow from it's forecast.