Central Maryland Archives
5:35 PM Wednesday 2/9/2011:
The storm system south of the region may spread flurries into southern portions of the area late this evening, continuing into the overnight hours. The best chance for a light dusting of snow will be in areas closer to Washington, D.C. The latest snowfall forecast imagery from the Sterling VA NWS can be found via this link: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/wintersto
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Clouds will rapidly decrease across the area tomorrow with northerly winds only allowing high temperatures to reach the lower 30s. After one more cold day Friday, a milder airmass will be ushered into the region over the weekend with high temperatures by Sunday near 50°.
8:30 AM 2/3/2011 Good Morning Maryland! Roads remain very slick in places this morning, so please use caution in your travels today. If you think the road looks wet, it is probably ice. The suburbs today will not make it above freezing today with highs around 30, and city temps getting up to 35 degrees. Partly sunny skies will dominate today, but there will be much less melting because of the cold temps.
The good news on Friday for school systems is that precipitation will not arrive until well after the school day has been concluded. In fact, precip is not likely until the overnight hours. By Saturday morning, the storm that will produce freezing rain and sleet along the Gulf coast is projected to spread wintry precip into our area. Strangely enough on Saturday, Central Maryland is probably going to see snow and sleet transitioning to rain south of I-70, with periods of light freezing rain along the PA border until afternoon. Have a great day everyone in getting your school and work schedules back to normal! (Forecaster Winterman and Mr. Foot)
10:30 PM Wed 2/2/2011 - We have received numerous reports of black ice and refreezing of standing water on roads, sidewalks, parking lots throughout portions of Baltimore, Carroll, Howard and Harford Counties. Two of our forecasters from UMBC have observed noted icy conditions at the campus and en route home this evening. Forecasters Aaron and Connor also referenced concerns in earlier updates this evening about black ice for overnight commuters. Readers have also reported several accidents in which ice may have been a factor.
With the brief rise in temperatures to near 50 this afternoon followed by a sharp decline tonight, snowmelt had several hours to "leak out" from underneath snow piles bordering sidewalks and in parking lots corners. This in addition to runoff from driveways and large parking areas will produce widespread "surprise" ice situations tomorrow.
For our many Cecil County readers who commute to the Central MD area, also note the Philadelphia/Mount Holly NWS has issued a Special Weather Statement regarding the black ice threat for overnight and tomorrow morning: Text of the advisory from PHL we did not wrwite this in CAPS, it is just how NWS does it.)
"942 PM EST WED FEB 2 2011
...POCKETS OF BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. ANY LINGERING WET UNTREATED SURFACES WILL FREEZE. USE
EXTRA CAUTION AS POCKETS OF BLACK ICE WILL FORM OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ON SIDEWALKS, PARKING LOTS, SECONDARY
ROADS, ROADWAY SHOULDERS AS WELL AS ON AND OFF RAMPS.
For all Maryland readers, we encourage you to bookmark this link to the MD Coordinated Highway Action Response Team (MD CHART) for latest on statewide road conditions. Messy URL we know, but worth clicking on it for road surface temps:
1:05 pm 2/2/2011 Good afternoon MD! Despite some school delays this morning for pockets of ice in northern counties, fortunately the majority of our area just missed the heavy icing. Temps today will be in the low-mid 40's with clearing to partly sunny skies. This morning's rain has tapered off, and frigid air begins rushing in tonight. The NWS watch/warning map shows a wind adivsory has crept into western Maryland, and in our area winds will begin gusting near 30 mph overnight.
An early overview on our next weather maker for this weekend have been posted above in the Winter Stormcast Zone.
UPDATE 7:30AM 2/1/11
Good morning once again! We still do have to worry about ice for the next 3-4 hours, but then most places will rise above freezing except for areas N&W.
Now a look ahead to our next part of this storm- We expect sometime AFTER evening rush hour freezing rain will come back into the area, and continue through midnight. Some places could switch over to all rain shortly after 1am, but most areas N&W will stay in freezing rain through 8am.
Overnight, this causes great concern for ice accumulation of 0.50"+ in the N&W suburbs with 0.25" of ice possible around the city. Once it turns over to plain rain it will continue through the afternoon on Wednesday and taper off in the evening hours. So, we are not done, but we have to get through this morning first so stay safe! ~Forecaster Winterman
UPDATE 5:30AM 2/1/11
Good morning Maryland! As expected everyone is now seeing freezing drizzle which is causing some major problems. It has been reported by the State Highway Administration that I-70 over the Carroll/Frederick border is starting to become icy. This freezing drizzle will continue through most of the morning, but some areas will not rise above freezing until 10am-noon. Areas N&W of Baltimore will most likely not rise above freezing today, so be mindful of more icy spots in those areas. ~Forecaster Winterman
UPDATE 11:15 PM 1/31/11
OVERNIGHT: Brief pulses of snow, sleet or freezing rain will continue intermittently through the night, but remain light in most places. We expect less than one-tenth an inch of ice to accumulate by daybreak. This could produce a black ice stuation for some unlit areas. is The morning commute tomorrow could be treacherous in one area, and just fine in another area of the same county.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Precipitation will become light oractually stop altogether during the day. Freezing rain should resume toward the evening rush, with the bulk of the ice accumulating tomorrow night. Overnight, we expect near a quarter inch of ice in Howard, Montgomery, Southern Baltimore and Southern Carroll counties. Places north of I-70 could see near a half inch of ice which would cause major power outages and damage to trees. We urge everyone to prepare for the worst and do not underestimate the dangers of ice. Text of Winter Storm Watch:
WEDNESDAY: The morning commute is likely to be worst of the entire storm. Though temperatures are likely to rise above freezing by Wednesday late morning, the Arctic front will charge across the area by dusk, and send temperatures tumbling back into the 20's overnight. This will rapidly refreeze any standing water and produce a widespread black ice problem Thursday morning. (Forecaster Foot, Collaborators: Winterman, Mintong N., Jason M. , onnor M. Dakota S.)
TEAM STATEMENT 10:25 PM 1/30/2011
Good evening Central MD! The team is watching the next storm very closely as it is one of those very complex situations. At this time it does seem we will at least see some ice on Tuesday and Tuesday night which is displayed on the map below, but current models show a mainly rain event for the Baltimore metro area. Forecast confidence is not high is because computer models can over-estimate temps in these situations with cold air damming.
We believe the N&W counties of Baltimore will stay in an ice situation longer than the city and areas south, which is why we have that area in the moderate ice accumulation range.
TIMING: Light snow and sleet will spread across the area Tuesday morning, before changing to freezing rain by noon. A brief lull is possible after noon but will return in the evening hours with more freezing rain. Freezing rain will transition to rain overnight for areas near the city, but the area N&W of Baltimore could stay in the freezing rain longer.
By daybreak Wednesday most should be in just a plain rain, but this it all depends on the temps, and a one or two degree difference can cause major problems. Overall, the toughest part of this forecast is when the freezing rain will transition over to plain rain, so we will keep you posted as new data becomes available. (Author: Forecaster Winterman; Contributors: Forecasters Connor, Jason, Dakota; Map Creator: Forecaster Connor)
10:30 PM Friday 1/28/2011 - Good evening, we have been getting many questions about next week’s snow, so we wanted to put out our first fair warning to all. This statement should not be taken with panic, but it is a statement to make sure we are ready once again when Mother Nature hands us some wintry weather! The ...potential for a Winter Storm to impact the central MD region by Tuesday night is growing. At this time it also seems likely the precipitation form for the majority of the event will be of the wintry type.
What does this mean?--- This means we still are 5 days out from a storm that looks very likely to give us some type of winter weather. There are two tracks which determine the exact precip type;
1.) A large area of low pressure takes a slide south but cuts into the Ohio Valley region, still affecting us with a wintry mix.
2.) The large area of low pressure slides south, gulf moisture taps into the storm, and transfers to the coast giving us a possible snow event.
Both situations are on the table, while precipitation amounts cannot be projected at this time. So this is just our preliminary statement and we will continue to keep you posted throughout the weekend! (Author: Forecaster Winterman; Contributors: Forecasters Connor, Jason, Dakota)
Attached is the Climate Prediction Center threat map. This will likely change again because this event is 4 days away so we will have to watch for any changes. To learn more visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ex
What does this mean?--- This means we still are 5 days out from a storm that looks very likely to give us some type of winter weather. There are two tracks which determine the exact precip type;
1.) A large area of low pressure takes a slide south but cuts into the Ohio Valley region, still affecting us with a wintry mix.
2.) The large area of low pressure slides south, gulf moisture taps into the storm, and transfers to the coast giving us a possible snow event.
Both situations are on the table, while precipitation amounts cannot be projected at this time. So this is just our preliminary statement and we will continue to keep you posted throughout the weekend! (Author: Forecaster Winterman; Contributors: Forecasters Connor, Jason, Dakota)
Attached is the Climate Prediction Center threat map. This will likely change again because this event is 4 days away so we will have to watch for any changes. To learn more visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ex
2:40 pm Friday 1/28/2011
Update Forecaster Jason M. Light to moderate snow in association with a weak clipper system will end from west to east over the next couple hours. Snowfall accumulations will be under one inch for most areas with high temperatures in the lower to mid 30s. Snow is currently melting on some roadways throughout the area, and this will refreeze tonight.
A secondary clipper system will cross the region tomorrow, with any light accumulations confined to areas along the Mason Dixon line. Dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday with some sunshine.
Information and preliminary ideas about the next winter storm, still 5 days from arriving, will be posted in the Winter Stormcast Zone and on its companion facebook page.
Good morning Maryland! Make sure to check for school closings and delays today, but the main counties closed today are Baltimore, Carroll, Cecil, and Harford county schools. This is due to icy and narrow roads and the anticipation of our next weather maker. It won't cause to much of a problem, but a weak clipper will come through around mid-morning and end by mid-afternoon. This will just give us a little period of light snow, dropping a coating in most places, but up to an inch in the N&W suburbs.
Other than that we watch for another clipper to come through Saturday with just a coating of accumulation possible. Tuesday and Wednesday do look a bit dicey for another major storm to possibly make its way into the area, but it is still 5 days away so we will post a basic and brief statement tonight. Have a great day! ~Forecaster Winterman
8:50 PM WEDNESDAY 1/26/2011
Good evening everyone! A truly amazing storm continues to plow through the region, but should start to wind down by 10pm in most areas. IMPACTS: ROADS ARE CLOSED, 69,000+ BGE CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AROUND MD, FLIGHT DELAYS AND CANCELLATIONS. We will now see 1" per hour snowfall rates until 9pm, before going down to around normal. Snowfall totals for the entire storm look to be on target ranging anywhere from 6-12". Please relay any amounts to us to help us get a good handle on what is happening.
WE URGE ALL DRIVERS TO STAY OFF THE ROADS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE, ROAD CONDITIONS ARE GETTING TO BE IMPASSABLE, ESPECIALLY WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. Please stay tuned! ~Forecaster Winterman
Earlier this morning...Good morning MD! On this exact day 7 years ago the original Foot's Forecast was born; 7 years later we are here for all of you ready to give you the latest on a significant Winter Storm. All of you are such great loyal fans, and we thank all of you have joined us for the entire or most of the ride! It is a true honor for me to be a part of this amazing organization and my central MD team. I thank the chairman and creator of this organization, Mr. Rich Foot for giving me this amazing opportunity to share my love for weather forecasting and environmental science skills. On to the weather: Right now most of Central MD is dealing with some moderate snow, but the mixing line is starting to invade Montgomery and Howard Counties. We do expect a change over to rain for areas around Baltimore, but areas N&W could stay all snow. If it stays all snow totals will be higher. We will see a break in the action after noon before the second round of precip comes in tonight with heavy snow for most of the area. We still are calling for a general 5-8" for the entire Central MD region (Ending Thursday-2am). Please stay tuned for many updates throughout the day!~Forecaster Winterman
TIMING: We expect precip to move into the area before the dawn hours of Wednesday as light snow possibly falling in the suburbs of Baltimore and mostly rain falling around Baltimore city. We expect the snow in the suburbs to possibly change over to rain by mid-morning, especially those N&E of I-95. We are still concerned about when the changeover will occur for areas N&W of Baltimore. We do believe a changeover is likely for Carroll and Frederick Counties, but it could only be for 3-4 hours, with the rest being snow.
AMOUNTS & INTENSITY: We are also confident all areas will see accumulating snow on the back end of this storm Wednesday evening into the Thursday early morning hours. Exact amounts are still in question right now, but 2”+ looks likely at this time. We will wait for another few model runs to make our FINAL CALL, but things are starting to come together at this point; prepare for messy commutes both Wednesday and Thursday. Contributors: Forecasters Connor, Jason, Dakota and Advisor Krichinsky:1M Monday Forecaster Jason: A large area of high pressure residing over New England will continue to support frigid temperatures for the remainder of the day. At this hour many locations are currently in the mid 20s with light winds. Temperatures will not be as bitterly cold tonight with lows in the upper teens to around 20°. As arctic high pressure finally departs the region overnight, temperatures will soar to near average tomorrow with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. A storm system is still expected to affect the area Wednesday, and details on this storm are listed in our team statement posted last night.
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