Friday, February 18, 2011

"Go West Young Man"
- Lead song by Michael W. Smith in his 1990 Album

video

5:35 PM EST 2/18/2011
What better way to celebrate this "Go West Friday" than with another excellent video report from adventurous Forecaster/Mountain Climber Vincent Webb of Central Mississippi, reporting on location from Mt. Evans in Central Colorado. We think you'd agree that these kids are simply amazing.


Speaking of going west, luck would have it that Forecaster Webb and Forecaster Foot may even have the unique opportunity to meet this Sunday with the Front Range to their backs. You can bet they will post a team forecast or two as part of the soon-to-be launched "Central Colorado Zone" on facebook and right on this site. This has come about because next week, Mr. Foot will be in Fort Collins attending a Professional Development meeting with his colleagues. The 5-day session is part of National Science Foundation's "Pathways to Environmental Science Literacy" Project. More details about this exciting multi-state student centered program of the Math Science Partnership to be featured in our "Learning Your Environment" section next week.

4:00 PM EST 2/18/2011 Fabulous warm Friday greetings to our readers in the Central, Southern and Mid-Atlantic states. The western third of the country is absorbing the impact of a troublesome system which delivered heavy snow to the Central Rockies, strong winds in western Colorado and significant ice in parts of Washington State. Snow is making its way through the usual places including northern New England and the Upper Great Lakes. With the exception of
Fire Weather Watches and RED FLAG WARNINGS in portions of the east, the majority of the NWS advisory map is more calm than challenging, at least for today. For those traveling
on this President's Weekend Friday within in the eastern two-thirds of the country, we foresee only one weather frustration (if you are seeking warmer conditions):

Why did Mother Nature set her SmartPhone calendar to "Make Friday nice, do big cold front on Sat, colder Sun." Our synopsis of the holiday travel plan:

1. Friday: Best day to get somewhere without hassle of storms, wild temperature changes, rain changing to snow, straight-line winds to aggravate your favorite airline pilot or air traffic controller.

2. Saturday: Heading south? Start with a winter coat, then change to rain jacket before dinner. Heading north? The opposite: Wear raincoat in AM, take winter coat for PM. Flying west? Progressively colder the farther west you are going. Head wind from a strong northern jet stream following the front passage will make for a slower outbound trip west. Going back east? Jet fuel might be optional. Strong westerly flow may even get you there early, similar to Forecaster Dakota and Mr. Foot's return trip from Seattle. We arrived 40 minutes early at BWI courtesy of our friend the northern jet stream.

3. Sunday: You just had to ask, huh? The secret we are now compelled to give away is that we expect this to be a much BETTER travel day than Monday.

Doing one of these rapid fire 3-day ski or beach adventures and plan to zip back home Monday? Get ready for headaches. Another system will move up from the southern Rockies to the Midwest and barrel into a major high pressure system. It is likely to kick out severe weather in the Southeast along the cold front, and cause travel delays in places like O'Hare.

Supporting links will be added later today. Our best wishes to all travelers for safe journeys this weekend. (Forecast Advisors Foot and Lear)

23 comments:

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

73.4 degrees at 2:40 pm!  I am in full Springaling mode.  Pull out the surfboard, fire up the grill, go outside in shorts!  WAIT.  Just checked the calendar and its Februrary 18th, and had a look at the models and they wern't wearing bikinis, but rather they had us covered in a blanket of snow!  Can't be, I mean it is Key West out there right?  Temperature wise sure, but the final remaining blanket of snow in my yard says otherwise, and it might be time to break out the snowblower again come Tuesday.  Picture at 2:40 pm today. 

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

Right now things look in line for a 6-12 inch event if current trends continue for Monday into Tuesday.  Again we are a few days out so I wouldn't alter plans yet, but there continues to be better agreement in models and there is brutal cold air to tap into. 

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

Had an unexpected afternoon off today becasue son was sick and needed asthma medicine.  After I sorted out the little dude, I put him out in the snow with nothing but a short sleeve shirt on!  What an awful dad =-O   Fortunately, child protective services can't touch me, becasue the national weather service can prove it was 75 outside, warmer than inside.  What a great afternoon. :) 8-)

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

Hi Andy - Working from home today and had a chance to spend some of my lunch time with my 19 month old in the woods in the back - no snow, just lots of dead leaves to play with. The current temperature predictions have us in Bowie area starting as rain and moving into snow. Do you think the modeled trends will keep going colder or are we likely below the all snow line at this point? -I know it is too early for any predicting with confidence - just thought I would see what you think the trends are doing. Thanks Michael

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

NWS BALT WASH disco above.  They seem pretty bullish. 

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

The trends have been colder each day and each run in general.  Factor in high precip rates and dynamic cooling I think this is at least an 80% snow event for Monday into Tuesday from BWI north.  From north of Baltimore city maybe close to 100% the way things look now.  You are right the devil is in the details, but if you like snow the details are trending in the right direction for HEAVY snow.  Perhaps double digit numbers.  10 inches is on the table with this system, maybe a tinge more further north of the city. 

Tina said...

I have to keep remembering I'm not in Baltimore anymore and that Gaithersberg is probably not gonna get nearly that much.  ::sigh::

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

Gaithersburg is on the hook for warning criteria snow as things look now.  Wouldn't hide the snow boots yet!

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

Thanks for the info. I will hide the spark plug on the snow blower to try and coax the cold trend down past Bowie (DC area).  I am tired of being on the wet side of that line across MD this year.

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

OK I am going all out and added an avatar pic from the February "Big" storm last year to appease the snow gods...for some real snow in Woodmore - Bowie area.

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

This year...

Tina said...

::snort::  Can you tell I've only lived in Gaithersberg/burg a little over a year?

I just want major snow for so many reasons.  Time will tell, as always.  :)

Tina said...

Srsly.

BioPat said...

Lost a good friend and colleague today to cancer.  We learned of her death this morning and the skys were so cloudy, but around 11 the sun began to shine brilliantly; as we walked to lunch one of our wonderful service people said, "Miss Judy has checked in to heaven and she has sent us the sun to let us know she's ok".  I'm betting we're going to get a boatload of snow on Tuesday to place a beautiful carpet on her resting place. 

hocoKtchr said...

Sorry to hear of your loss... and I think a carpet of snow would be a nice tribute to your friend!

Jen O said...

I've been out of town and what do I come back to? Warm weather and the threat of snow...WOW...

Andy, Southern York County PA (FORECAST ADVISOR) said...

Tragic loss.  All the best to you and friends. 

Matt S said...

Sorry to hear of your loss Pat. Cancer is a horrible thing.

Morpheus - Woodmore, MD said...

Condolences Pat

JULIE said...

38 weeks pregnant and counting :) SNOW? Could it be? hmmmmm???? :'(

somestars said...

Andy ... certainly hope your little boy is better now.  I've been wearing the asthma mantle this week as well, but instead of following your protocol (going out in the snow in summer clothes) I spent three days in bed, coughing until my retinas detached.  Still coughing in fact. Can you hear me from there?
I know what will make me fell better! SNOOOOOOOOOOOW!!!!!
Are we to be treated to a weather-warm-up-then-whomp scenario?  Sure seems impossible after a day like today, doesn't it?

terpguy said...

Sorry, Pat.

Brian Hood said...

Should I even bother asking why at this point the local mets are unconcerned and calling for rain or a light mix for Tuesday?