Thursday, March 8, 2018

Believer

"You made me a believer..."
 "Believer" by Imagine Dragons in the 2017 album Evolve

Tired of the way things have been this season? Any chance of "real snow" to warm the hearts 
of Powderhounds? Let's just say the pain of this winter may have been worth the wait.

THE CLAIM:

WHAT IS THE PRECEDENT?
  • The pattern we last saw from February to March of 2017 is reoccurring this season. Recall when last year, temperatures over President's weekend ramped up to 75 F under sunny skies?
  • A few weeks later, just as many had written winter off, the mid-Atlantic was clocked by a 2-day snow and ice storm on March 13-14 with January-like temperatures to seal the deal. 
  • Many schools in the Baltimore-DC region were closed 2 days in a row.

WHERE IS THE EVIDENCE?
  • Explanation: Winter 2017-18 has been influenced by the same major climate factor as last season: La Nina. The irregular cooling of the eastern equatorial Pacific in a strange way produces all kinds of stranger things in winter for the U.S. eastern seaboard: Wildly fluctuating conditions, a variety of precipitation types all in the same storm, snow in unusual places and at unusual times of the year.
  • Examples: Christmas snow in Charleston SC? How about the 70 degrees then snow 2 days later in Baltimore, only to climb back to near 80 two days after?! Oh yeah, then we had a historic windstorm, then another snow event. Tired of this pain train? It shows no sign of stopping. 
  • Evaluation: The largely overnight timing of precipitation events this season has exacted a toll on school schedules, not that any students or teachers are complaining. Though some parents are way past done with the back and forth of school being open, then closed, then open again. For now, at least most of us have 4 normal, calm weather days ahead from today to Sun 3/11.
PRELIMINARY EXPECTATIONS
  • Sunday evening 3/11: With weekend temperatures across the region to hold near January-like levels, overnight lows will have dropped back to the 20s several days in a row. A moisture laden system moving from the southern Plains is expected to gain energy from a northern Plains system. By early evening, snow should be moving northward from some type of coastal system developing along the Carolinas. 
  • Monday morning 3/12: The map above is one scenario for 8 AM Monday, with snow possible along the I-95 corridor for the morning commute. However, an old rule about winter storm forecasting will be back on the table -- "If you want snow, DON'T be in the bullseye 5 days out." Why? This allows a couple days for the computer models to resolve toward a more consistent solution -- and depict any westward drift that can occur with a coastal system. Conversely, the chances of the model showing a perfect all-out snowstorm scenario 5 days in the row is very low. Instead, we adhere to what's called the "most probable" outcome.
  • Winter weather graphics from the NOAA Winter Weather desk spell it out: The areas noted in light green currently have at least a 25% probability of 0.25" or more of liquid precipitation falling in some frozen form Sunday night into Monday. That may not seem like much, but with each passing day the probability of that scenario builds if the pattern remains consistent.

REASONING
  • By Sunday evening, we believe several key factors will be in place: A southern system able to interact with energy from the northern jet stream, evening to overnight timing of precipitation, ample moisture, a nearby High pressure system, a projected rain/snow line to setup well east of the major east coast metro areas, and all this coming on the heels of 4 days with sub-32 F overnight lows to chill the ground throughout the mid-Atlantic & mid-South.
  • A 5 day projection may not be enough to make you a believer, considering it is March and time is running out. However one question is clear: Since FF has barely posted anything this whole season, why bother now? Winter is probably over, right? Let's just say it is a case where "good things come to those who wait," because we wouldn't post a long report like this without...believing there was a good reason for it. ;-))
Forecaster Foot and the Winter Stormcast Team


14 comments:

Westsidehideaway said...

Hi Everyone. I pray. I pray. Bring on the powder!!!

Westsidehideaway said...

Hey. Where is everyone??

Luvwinter said...

I miss these guys!! Where are you! Why have you not posted anything all winter! Please come back!

NeedaSnowday said...

:::runs in::: {exasperated}

THIS WINTER STINKS!!!!!!!

WE ARE IN THE SNOW HOLE AGAIN!!! AGAIN?!!? How..... why??

::::calmly walks back out::::

Westsidehideaway said...

I’m with ya Snowday. I’m with ya!!

Kyle said...

Turn out the lights the parties over!
Such a depressing winter.

Butch Dynomite said...

Buck up y’all . Some times it goes the other way too. And May flowers and lighting bugs and leaves turning upside down before clouds like towers in the sky . But generally March always kinda sucks . the right jacket in the morning isn’t so in the afternoon. And I mean we still could get some snow this time .

JR said...

I think the learning lesson is not to look at models 5 days before an event, and even no more than 2 days out. Clearly, no one knows anymore. Until next Winter....

Lizzy B said...

Suckiest winter ever. Oh well, only nine months til December...

NeedaSnowday said...

What a tease..... flurries??!!

Butch Dynomite said...

but if you look at he models for 7 days out ......

Lizzy B said...

I want to, but my heart has been broken so many times... I will start paying attention on Friday. :)

Rebecca said...

I give up. Anyone else ready for gardening and the pool? Next winter...

NeedaSnowday said...

I AM GETTING SUCKED BACK IN........