Saturday, March 31, 2007

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YOU'VE GOT TO BE KIDDING...
EASTER COLDER THAN CHRISTMAS ?!?


While I can't claim ownership to that headline (Joe Bastardi of Accuweather alluded to it first) the indicators are clearly there and shown on the GFS projection for early Sunday morning, April 8. As I mentioned in my blurb last week... frost on the bunny ears is looking more likely. In Baltimore, the daily high temperature recorded at BWI for December 25, 2006 was 50 F, and the 24-hour low 30 F. In Philadelphia, the same numbers were 49 F and 33 F respectively. If the upper level 540 thickness line (dashed blue line below) does get to the Virginia/NC border as shown, I would expect the map above to verify fairly closely. That means Easter morning the Mid-Atlantic may be looking at widespread 20's and just breaking into the mid 40's by afternoon. But wait! It gets worse. (I know, I wish this was an April Fool's joke, but it really is not.)
gfs_slp_192s
You should know both the GFS and Euro have begun to advertise a fairly intense (and unwelcome) cold snap to enter the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by late in the week, starting as early as this coming Thursday. This may be followed by a series of Low pressure systems forming along the southern boundary of that cold air. The map below is a 10 day hint of snow possibility on or about Tuesday, April 10, but it is just a very early projection.

As with all storms, this one will need "the right amount of cold and moisture at the right times." Yes, I know you're thinking "how could this be, a snowstorm in APRIL? Come on." Well, April 6 in 1982 and 2003 produced memorable snows in east central PA and New Jersey. In fact as late as April 23, 1986 there was an an inch of snow that morning at my home in suburban Philadelphia, and northern New Jersey/southern New York received 2 feet of heavy wet snow from the same storm. I remember this well because exactly one year earlier on the same date in 1985, Philadelphia recorded a record high of 94 F along with many other cities in the Northeast.

So despite the strength of the April sun, there can still be snow this time of the year and this will no doubt dishearten the spring-a-lings like me who are ready to start planting and are so totally done with the snow this year. In fact I even reverse-jinxed the storm because I told my wife, "Look dear, I'm putting away the shovel and salt (for the second time)...that means it'll snow one more time." Thus the Adventure of Winter 06-07 continues yet again, so stay tuned and this coming Friday we'll revisit the potential of a final? snowstorm once my quarterly grade scans are done and in on time.

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

18 comments:
WINTER RETURNS, JUST IN TIME FOR SPRING
images courtesy of Accuweather.com

Equinox Week 2007

An early week update to say that Monday night's clipper through the Great Lakes and Northeast brought with it a temporary chill which will make the first full day of Spring (Wednesday) feel downright January-ish. Highs in my area of Maryland are only expected to reach the mid 40's with lows once again in the mid 20's. But fear not Spring-a-lings (a term of endearment for members of the discussion community who favor Spring)...your long awaited warm-up will return for a brief time late this week and into next week. As we head towards the end of March and Palm Sunday Weekend, there might be some April Fool's mischief lurking in the time frame from the 30th to the 3rd, and it's no joke that this inappropriate meteorological behavior could include SNOW for portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. More on that mayhem later, for now we can finally celebrate the arrival of "Astronomical" Spring at 8:07 PM EDT today.