Wednesday, February 3, 2010

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Where will you be...
The day after tomorrow?


HIGH-IMPACT HISTORIC WINTER STORM 
TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE MID-ATLANTIC REGION


4:30 PM WEDNESDAY 2.3.2010 

NWS Advisory statements: Baltimore-Washington

SYNOPSIS Based on the team's 12+ hours of analysis into climate teleconnection trends, computer model data and affect of current snowcover on temperature projections, the forecast team has assembled 2 scenarios for the Mid-Atlantic:

SCENARIO A 12-18" of snow from Washington to Philadelphia with higher amounts further inland, ending Sunday morning. Some mixing may occur along I-95. In this scenario, snow should arrive around noon Friday in southwest Virginia, and after the evening commute along I-95 and continue to Sunday morning.

SCENARIO B 18-26" across the western Chesapeake Bay into the Piedmont with isolated higher amounts, including the entire I-95 corridor. In this scenario, heavy snow arrives across the region by mid-afternoon Friday. The evening commute along I-95 would be difficult but not impossible. Mixing of sleet occurs in lower southern Maryland and along the eastern shore. 

Supporting data The 12z (7am) projections from the North American Mesoscale (NAM) project roughly 3.0 inches of liquid for the Baltimore metro area. We are not making this up. Please consider the impact this situation could have on your family, students, schools and property, and make the necessary arrangements if you believe the data is not lying.


5:30 AM WEDNESDAY 2.3.2010 Snowfall began clearing Maryland's Bay region just after 4:00 AM. With this being a heavy wet snow and surface temps close to 32 F has permitted state highway crews to keep main roads clear. View latest road and traffic conditions on MD DOT's CHART (Coordinated Highway Action Response Team) website. News reports indicate few incidents on major thoroughfares.


Widespread delays across Maryland indicates that school grounds crews anticipate some warming mid and late morning will enhance the cleanup process. We ascertain that is the reason most VA and MD western shore schools will open 2 hours late today. Several southern MD and Eastern shore districts are closed. Though many of you in the school community were hoping or expecting a closing, in this active El Nino pattern, it may be wise to "get as many days in" as you can. Remember January 1994?
This weekend's SuperKahuna is already developing over southern Texas. Computer models continue to project between 1.0 and 2.5 inches of liquid for much of the Mid-Atlantic, including most of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia, DelMarVa, New Jersey.  Last nights liquid equivalent projections are shown below from the mid-range NAM (North American Mesoscale) model. Later this morning, details of our research and investigations will be shifting to a new page on this site to be titled "KahunaCast Zone."   Until then, the HPC has given clear warning this storm will not be for the faint of heart.

Announcing a new forecast zone! The Foot's Forecast team is proud to welcome Christine McEnrue, a junior in Meteorology from the Pennsylvania State University. Christine, who also works alongside Forecasters Matt Alto and Jon Kegges at the PSU Campus Weather Service, will be leading a newly developed Southeastern Pennsylvania Zone. This is wonderful news for our long time loyal readers in PA whom have waited in the weather wilderness for this to occur. They will discover Ms. McEnrue's skills to be spot-on with regard to the nuances of forecasting, as she comes to the table with an impressive resume of background in Dynamic and Synoptic Meteorology. The zone will be posted later today, to include the PA counties starting in Lancaster going northeast to Northampton, then south to Philadelphia and back west. Welcome Christine, we are thrilled to have you on the team!  - Forecaster Foot

Monday, February 1, 2010

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Aaron Salter
Director of Team Operations

University of Maryland, Baltimore Co.
Class Rank: Junior
Major: Environmental Studies
Education: Associates Degree,
Carroll Community College   Hobbies: Soccer, Surfing, CrossFit






At Foot's Forecast:
- Student Outreach Director
- MD Team Administrator
- Forecaster for Z104.3 & The Jackson Blue Show
- Central MD Forecaster
- Severe Weather Forecaster


Employment Experience
- Personal Trainer at Y of Central Maryland
- Personal Trainer at UMBC



Projects in 2010-2011
(Left) Surf & Sail Forecaster for Captain Larry Vazzano and the crew of "Wharf Rat" during the June 2010 Bermuda Ocean Race from Annapolis Yacht Club to Bermuda. (Above right) Presented at June 2010 conference of the Maryland Emergency Management Agency in Ocean City, MD with 3 other team members 


- Interned at Anne Arundel Emergency Operations Center
- Featured in snowfall article by the Carroll County Times
- ABC 2 News interview with Justin Berk
- Hurricane Tabletop, Baltimore County Emergency Operations Center
- Student volunteer, Baltimore Ecosystem Study, UMBC

                                             
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"I have a bad feeling about this..."
- Han Solo in Star Wars

6:00 AM MONDAY 2.1.2010  Now is that any way to start what may be a Fantastic February? (that is, unless you are with state highway administration crews!)

If you saw some of the current text reports coming from NOAA's HPC in Camp Springs, MD - you'd think we were once again hyping storm potential for the sake of ratings. Suffice to say what may be coming in the Friday-Sunday time frame could rival the Superbowl for intensity and coverage. If you have weekend plans, such as attending the annual MAEOE environmental science conference in Rocky Gap, MD ; better keep a close eye on this storm potential. For a glimpse, let's just leave here this snippet of their original ideas posted by HPC on Sunday afternoon 1.31:
1:56 PM SUN 31 JANUARY 2010: (emphasis ours)
HVY RAINFALL SHOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS TX WED AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST INTO MUCH OF FL/GA/SC AND NC THURS TO FRI. HVY RAINFALL WITH FREEZING PCPN POTENTIAL WELL INLAND IN THE APPLCHNS AND FOOTHILLS FRI AND SAT AS HVY RAIN SPREADS INTO ERN NC/VA.  HVY PCPN EVENT SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE MID ATLC REGION SAT VERY POSSIBLY INTO SUN SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER THREAT IS POSSIBLE. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONG ONSHORE WIND CONSENSUS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLC SEABOARD WITH OCEAN OVER WASH/BEACH EROSION/COASTAL FLOODING FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
Granted they update ideas twice a day, so please consider monitoring HPC discussions in the preliminary (early morning) and final extended (mid afternoon) reports. Obviously trends will change, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is sending mixed signals. This storm could go south of DC, but we've heard that before. By the early looks of this, it would be nice for it to go WAY south - as in out to sea. Our team will be examining where a high will setup, what the NAO is doing and positioning of the polar vortex. We use HPC ideas as a general guide and then on our own go into the gritty details of each data point they raise to unpack the actual details.


Yes, Virginia, there is snow potential for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Details on that in our facebook page, and we will report back on those developments tonight. Welcome to February, if you have a bad feeling about this - then tighten your seatbelt!


A copy of our latest storm grade data for the Mid-Atlantic and the I-40 corridor, as forecasted by students at the BCPS Crossroads Center, will be posted in our "Storm Data Zone" Note grades for Virginia and Delaware are pending - so they are not included yet.