Monday, December 31, 2012

Isn't THIS an interesting development.

5:55 PM EST 12/31/12 
(Ohio Valley Winter Stormcast Team) A storm system developing across the Plains today will track east into the Ohio Valley tonight. 

Snow is already breaking out across IN. The snow will spread eastward across OH this afternoon, possibly starting as a little light rain in some areas. 

  • Further south across far southern IN, and northern KY, a mix of wintry precipitation is expected. 
  • Through this evening, snow will continue across IN and OH, into portions of northwestern WV. Mixed precipitation will continue across far southern IN, north central KY and into west central WV. 
  • While snow and ice accumulations are expected to be light, some slippery travel conditions could develop, impacting New Years Eve activities. 

The map issued yesterday still looks reasonable given the latest information obtained from models and current observations. 

The snow/mixed precipitation will continue through the night and into Tuesday across the region, before ending from northwest to southeast during the day.

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Do You See What I See?

9:45 AM EST 12/30/12 (Long Range Team)  

As we turn the corner toward 2013, one question is on the minds of many readers regarding snow and storms. "What was that it, or is there more to come?" 

We can say with high confidence the winter pattern is just getting underway.  Long range ideas by our colleagues at NOAA rightly point to a less stormy pattern the next 7 daysHowever, the large scale placement of air masses, as indicated by the North Atlantic Oscillation and other teleconnections, clearly suggests while storminess is taking a break across the lower 48 states, we believe the pattern is also reloading to repeat with equal or greater ferocity in the 10-20 day period ahead. We'll have more details on this potential in an updated analysis by 12/31.

Photo credit: Ms. Ingrid Lochte in Glen Rock, PA from 12/29/2012 snow. 

Friday, December 28, 2012

Who's Ready For More Powder?!

8:30 PM EST 12/28/12 
(Winter Stormcast Team Statement)  For those heading to ski resorts this weekend, you nailed it. Our team sees that a moderate snow event remains likely for much of the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. 

Full details in our statement below: 

  • This storm will be weaker than the midweek storm we just experienced with only nuisance to moderate snows expected. The snow will affect many major metropolitan areas including Pittsburgh, Washington DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York City. Majority of the region will see mainly snow, except when you go south of Washington DC. 
  • A few changes have been made since our earlier update, including increasing some snow totals. It does seem cold air across Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland Panhandle, and west portions of Virginia will lead to higher than normal snow ratios of nearly 15in of snow to 1 in of liquid. This leads us to believe that this area will see 3-5in of snow in general on Saturday. 
TIMING: Snow should begin shortly after midnight Friday night in Maryland, early morning in Pennsylvania, and New Jersey/New York around mid-morning. The event will only last about 6-8 hours in each region as it moves out of MD mid-afternoon, Pennsylvania/New York late-afternoon, and New Jersey during the early evening hours. 

Three Rivers: 2-4"
Central PA & Northeast 3-5"
Potomac Ridge & Valley: 2-5"
Southeast PA: 3-5" 
Central NJ: 2-4" 
North Central MD: 2-4"
South Central MD: 1-2"
Capital Region D.C. MD: C-2" 
Southern MD: C-1"

IMPACTS: Travelers heading on long weekend vacations will be impacted if they try to leave Saturday. If at all possible we advise leaving Friday, or waiting until Sunday. Temperatures will be sub-freezing to just above freezing in most areas leading to some snow covered roads and icy conditions on roads that snow melts. Expect travel to be difficult during the morning and afternoon Saturday, especially on roads where melted snow refreezes. Conditions may begin improving by the evening, especially in southern areas where the snow moves out early in the afternoon. 

Lead Writer: Winter Stormcast Director Zach Fasnacht.
Contributors: Forecasters Connor M., Greg J., Jason M., Rich Foot, Keith K., Jason I.