Wednesday, October 28, 2015

2 comments:
"From a distance..."
- 1990 single by Bette Midler (Youtube music video)

5:00 PM 10/28 - With the wind swept rainy remnants of once Category 5 Hurricane Patricia having moved through the eastern U.S., thoughts now turn toward what is ahead on the long range horizon. 

It is surmised by some climate analysis writers that downstream "blocking" in Greenland, as indicated by a negative Arctic Oscillation since summer may correlate to interesting impacts on the not-too-distant winter weather pattern. An example? 

In the short term, could the southerly winds and moisture from Patricia's remnants:
A) cause a reduction in northern snow cover, and B) Slow the onset of future wintry conditions in the eastern U.S.? Below are shocking photos that unveil new evidence of this unfolding tragedy in the snow cover community.

COOL EARTH IMAGES. Before we investigate that question, science teachers and satellite enthusiasts alike may be delighted to learn this: NASA has launched a new website where daily color imagery of the full Earth disk can be obtained, courtesy of the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR). The imagery is produced from a special telescopic and photographic satellite called EPIC (Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera). The image shown here is from Friday, October 23, 2015 just before Patricia made landfall in Mexico.

SHOCKING TRUTH OF SNOW COVER

The two images shown are from the NOAA National Ice Center. Left is snow cover as of Saturday 10/24/15 - a day after Patricia's landfall. Right is the most recent image as of Tuesday 10/27. Look carefully at the stark reduction in snow cover. The province of Ontario was nearly half-covered, and now in just a few days, most of that has vanished! 

If Jim Kirk were a forecaster, he might say "Come on Spock...Big deal." For those gaming to have a White Christmas, or just have a fighting chance to get anything white out of the sky, you need Canada's snow cover to get back on track, and fast. We will expand upon this report to outline if there is any probability of that happening in the near future. 

Otherwise, the "snow-capped mountains white" sung about by Bette Midler will stay just lyrics in a song until January for some. From this distance, even the 8-14 day temperature outlook below points to further delays in snow cover buildup likely well into November.


-The FF Long Range Team


Sunday, October 25, 2015

No comments:
"Here Comes The Rain Again."
-1983 single by Eurthymics (Youtube Music Video)

5:35 PM 10/25If you're wondering about any effect the remnants of once-Hurricane Patricia may have on our region, your concerns are valid. Although the weather mid-week will have periods of wind-swept rain, it will be nothing like what we saw before Hurricane Joaquin threatened the region. The exception being water-logged South Carolina still in long term recovery from the devastating rains early this month.

This projected NOAA surface map below for 8 PM Tuesday night 10/27 shows the classic "double barrel" setup of a large High to our north and a sprawling area of Low pressure approaching from the southwest.


The interaction of these opposing pressure systems will create multi-day easterly flow, moistening the atmosphere ahead of the Low. Remember, this sweetie has already been on a sugar high, being that it is a remnant tropical system which was supercharged by El Nino-warmed waters of at least 86 F!  

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC?
  • At least 1.0" of rain is expected late Tue into early Thu, under Easterly flow and much cooler temps in the 50s;
  • Further enhancement of rainfall totals likely due to moisture transport toward our area from the Gulf and Atlantic;
  • If your area or home is prone to flooding, make sure leaves are not blocking gutters, downspouts or storm drains. 






(Image left: NOAA 5-DAY PRECIP PROJECTIONS SHOW 1.0-1.5" OF RAIN POSSIBLE)


UNTIL THEN, Monday brings another classic October day of gorgeous blue skies, albeit chilly with highs in the upper 50s. Clouds on the increase Tuesday with rain arriving by late evening.

The best news: This system clears out of here on Thursday as conditions stabilize under new High pressure that will make for a rain-free trip around the neighborhood Saturday evening.


1 comment:
Sunshine on the Pumpkin


9:25 AM 10/25 - Wondering about the weather for "All Hallow's Eve"?
  • Early indications are high pressure will dominate the region Friday into Saturday, with rain free skies likely from Hill Valley to Sleepy Hollow and Elm Street, and other areas of the Mid-Atlantic.
  • Sorry Black Lagoon, probably no spooky fog this time. Attending or planning a special themed event? We'd love to hear about it!

For families holding an evening outdoor activity involving alternatively-styled apparel on Sat 10/31, here is our preliminary look into the FF crystal ball:
* Weather: Generally clear with light winds
* Temps: Mid 50s daytime, 50 F sundown, 47 F by 8 PM.
* Effects: Significant intake of small, multi-colored objects containing glucose and confectioner's glaze is expected.
* Impacts: Increasing levels of high energy outdoor activity, followed by delayed onset of sleep and fatigued elders.


Any schools planning to hold an "Enchantment Under The Sea" dance, we doubt a terrible thunderstorm - or a pre-planned bolt of lightning - is in your future next Saturday night. But if you are testing weather equipment at the town square, make sure you have a permit.
Enjoy this last "normal" weekend of sorts before the busy holiday schedule kicks into gear after next week!
-The FF Maryland Team
Image credit: NOAA Weather Prediction Center Day 7 surface map projection