Monday, March 13, 2017

Something Wicked This Way Comes

61 comments:
Big Kahuna To Blizzard The Northeast


  • BLIZZARD WARNINGS EXPANDED (RED) TO INCLUDE PHILADELPHIA METRO, EASTERN PA & NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FOR 18-24" 
  • WINTER STORM WARNINGS (PINK) IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. Check your local NWS office for latest official details on current statements. Click Advisory map -->
  • HIGH IMPACT EVENT with multi-hazards. Please refer below to Storm Information Graphic and NOAA Winter Weather Safety graphics.
  • POST-STORM: Sub 20F temps & widespread refreezing of snow melt each morning. 


Current Regional Radar 



National Radar



"Something Wicked This Way Comes..."
-Macbeth, Act 4, Scene 1

UPDATE FROM 3:00 PM SUN 3/12

Friday, March 10, 2017

Seriously?

28 comments:
Big Kahuna 2 years in a row? 

11:00 AM ET SAT 3/11 UPDATE
  • No major changes to current storm forecast ideas noted below. Some computer models have shifted tracks a distance east or west, as is expected and customary in the days prior to a major event. 
  • Confidence remains high for accumulating snow across the region, however finer details of how much falls in which locations is not yet fully established due to changes in liquid amounts.
  • Cold air to remain in place prior to and after the event, enhancing impact to roads in all areas regardless of starting or ending precipitation type. 


If computer models stay on target with current ideas, many of us may 
have some heavy lifting to do soon. If not, this picture can stay in your memories.
  • SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF MID-ATLANTIC REGION EAST OF I-81 TO WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE-PHILADELPHIA METRO REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
  • LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF 1.0-2.0 INCHES MAY PRODUCE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
  • SNOW AMOUNTS OF 5" OR MORE MAY BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE REGION, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THE STORM SHIFTS WEST.
  • TEMPERATURES IN TEENS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IMPACTING SCHOOLS AND COMMUTERS DUE TO EXTENSIVE REFREEZING OF SNOW MELT RUNOFF.

SURFACE MAP: 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING: 
Looks like a Big Kahuna to us.


LATEST STORM SCENARIOS

SCENARIO A - 60%: Big Kahuna significant accumulating snow event across the Mid-Atlantic region with up to 5" common by Tuesday morning.

SCENARIO B - 20%: Some But Not A Lot due to a westward shift in track that moves axis of heaviest snow into morthern & western MD and southern to central PA, leaving 95 corridor with 5" or less.

SCENARIO C - 20%: Big KaNONa with a last minute pull to the East, bringing heaviest snow to coastal Eastern shore and leaving 95 corridor and interior areas with flurries. 


12:00 PM THU 3/9 UPDATE BELOW


Think of it as an early April fools.
  • CONFIDENCE GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
  • NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL & BAY AREAS.
  • OVER 1.0" OF LIQUID SUGGESTS HEAVY WET SNOW A PROBABLE OUTCOME, ACCUMULATIONS OF 5" OR MORE LIKELY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-95.
  • AM TEMPS 15-20 F WED-FRI TO BRING EXTENSIVE REFREEZING & ROAD ICE.
  • IF NOT HAPPY ABOUT THIS, NEITHER IS THE SNOWCAT. 
5:00 AM ET Fri 3/10  - Now that the word is getting around you will have snow next week, no doubt there will be lots of questions for details. For Winter's last hurrah, we invite you to join the Insiders for direct access to our forecasts via app, notifications and text alerts. 
FANTASTIC SNOW IS COMING BACK, AND WE KNOW WHERE TO FIND IT. Visit the Insiders portal for details, and be a true Powderhound for the grand finale you've been waiting for all season!

How much? Let's just say...more than you've seen in March for a long, long time. Many areas in the Mid-Atlantic are likely to see 5 inches or more, if the most probably scenario plays out as expected. Below is a short version in 3 steps to how your snow dreams may come true next week in the Northeast U.S., especially if you are a teacher, student or Powderhound-at-large.

Remember last time the European model locked onto to a major storm solution 5 days out?
You guessed it, January 2016. Here's the map for 8 AM Tuesday 3/14 (Known as Pi Day)

  • STEP 1: FRIDAY.  A fast-moving clipper on Friday unlocks the gates to Canada, and much colder air. What you get: The chance to watch wet snow fall in the daytime from your office, home or classroom window, and not stick much.
  • STEP 2: SATURDAY-SUNDAY. Truly Arctic air rushes in behind that southern system we discussed in the previous "You may fire when ready" article. What you get: Highs in the 30s, lows in the teens. That's serious cold for March. 
  • STEP 3: MONDAY-TUESDAY. Now the fun part. Since the southern system this weekend would have been pushed SOUTH, you thought that means the Mid-Atlantic escapes, right? In reality, leftovers from that system interact with Gulf and Atlantic moisture, which starts riding back north. By Monday, a fast moving upper level disturbance is expected to "activate" that moisture and develop it into a surface Low near the Carolinas. What you get: A potentially significant coastal winter storm with some similarities to the December 19, 2009 storm. A multi-day event that would "interfere" with next week with accumulating snow starting Monday night.

Tuesday, March 7, 2017

You may fire when ready

2 comments:
"You may fire when ready."
- Grand Moff Tarkin, Star Wars

  • ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR LATE THIS WEEK TO PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AN INTERIOR & COASTAL SYSTEM WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BY THE WEEKEND FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC.
  • POSITIONING OF A HIGH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA AND A LOW IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY POINTS TO A CLASSIC "COLD AIR DAMMING" SCENARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING.
  • DESPITE MILD CONDITIONS WED-THU, COLD AIR THU-SAT, OVERNIGHT ONSET AND AMPLE MOISTURE INCREASE PROBABILITY OF SNOW OVER RAIN.  

4:30 AM 3/7 - Although Princess Leia's famous opening line of "...only you could be so bold" in Star Wars Episode IV was directed at Darth Vader, the brashness of the situation is similar. Known for unorthodox, brash and persecuting methods -- Vader and Governor Tarkin are the analogy we select to describe this upcoming potential winter weather assault.