Sunday, October 8, 2017

1 comment:
A Return To Normalcy? Not For A While.
  • RAIN RELIEF IS NATE'S FATE: Remnant moisture and wind from T.S. Nate overspreading the eastern third of the U.S. will reinforce the summer-like pattern seen in these areas since late September. The upside will be a welcome relief of rain to many dry areas baked in the recent warmth. See below for 7-day precipitation projections.
  • TEMPS STAY WARM: Long range temperature indicators show above normal temperatures for the mid-south, mid-Atlantic and northeast should continue through much of October.
  • BERMUDA HIGH HOLDING: As shown in the steering currents image from University of Wisconsin, the clockwise spin of air in the west Atlantic is maintaining a moist, tropical hold on the eastern U.S. while allowing Nate to fuel the fire even more with an infusion of fresh Gulf moisture into the pattern.

7-day rainfall projections from NOAA

What it all means?
Expect a warm, wet pattern through mid-October, returning to dry and windy toward end of the month. Unless of course the Gulf sends along another hurricane. 

Saturday, September 23, 2017

1 comment:
"How do you solve a problem like Maria?"
- from Maria in the Sound of Music

  • WESTWARD SHIFT: Computer model trends past 24 hours are depicting a significant westward shift in Maria's track toward North Carolina's Outer Banks. 
  • CONE OF UNCERTAINTY: The National Hurricane Center's official track has also moved notably west, from solutions earlier this week that were all out to sea.
  • EXPANDED EFFECTS: A strong and large but slowly weakening tropical system results in an expansion of the wind field. A wider area will experience tropical-storm force winds than if the storm was very strong with a tightly-compacted wind core.
  • IMPACTS FOR MID-ATLANTIC COAST? Coastal communities from South Carolina to New Jersey will experience 72+ hours of large and increasing swells, persistent onshore easterly winds, water levels rising with each tide cycle and probable flooding in low-lying areas. 


Tuesday, September 12, 2017

1 comment:
Jose Surprise?
  • ATLANTIC WANDERER JOSE, ONCE A CATEGORY 4, now looping in the Bermuda Triangle before expected to turn toward the Southeast coast this weekend.
  • Long range show that a high pressure ridge over E Canada & northeast could move into North Atlantic late next weekend. Ensemble models below largely depict an out to sea solution.
  • Development of a deeper trough in western U.S. same time period could either nudge Jose away from land, or help create a channel with the ridge, driving the storm northwest. 
  • We will continue monitoring for indications for / or against this scenario.



Saturday, September 9, 2017

TAMPA: COULD THIS BE THE ONE?

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Tampa: Could this be the one?
  • WATCHES & WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTH ON EAST & WEST FL COASTS.
  • MULTI-CITY LANDFALL on Florida's west coast while areas of east and Space coast receive 100 mph winds. The Nature and Gold coast cities likely to see winds of 100-120 mph include Naples, Fort Myers, Port Charlotte, Sarasota,Tampa-St. Petersburg, Clearwater. 
  • 3/ 4 of  FLORIDA PENINSULA likely to receive winds 75 mph or greater, per NOAA.
  • FORECAST POSITION: NORTH TAMPA METRO BY 4 AM MONDAY AS CAT 3.
  • SUMMARY OF OFFICIAL DETAILS: See our Hurricane 411 Center.

6:00 AM ET SAT 9/9 Westward shift in track took place overnight as has been the trend, resembling the scenarios early this week of a west coast landfall as a major Category 4. These impacts would mirror the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, 1960 Hurricane Donna and Tampa's last major direct hit in 1921 (1-min video) that produced 6-12 feet of surge in the Bay. View Surge Maps for Tampa inundation levels at Category 3, 4 and 5.

Below is the forecast position for 4 AM Monday 9/11 by the European, of which NHC has indicated their path is mirroring. A docu-drama video scenario developed by the Tampa Bay Catastrophic Plan Project shows how a Category 5 strike would play out were that to occur. Even if not a Cat 5 at landfall, it won't matter. Impacts from this path would essentially be the worse case scenario if the storm restrengthens after leaving Cuba.



What this map means: 
  • A Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds channels directly through Tampa Bay
  • Previous 175 miles of coastline and interior sections of West Florida will have just experienced a Category 4 storm with damage far exceeding Donna and the 1935 storm.
9:50 PM ET FRI 9/8 If major westward shifts occur in the official track at this point, Tampa-St. Petersburg could be looking at "the one" they've been fearing for years...a Category 3/4 monster with a 12 foot+ storm surge that inundates the entire downtown and leaves St. Petersburg an island. 


Friday, September 8, 2017

A SIGHT YOU SELDOM SEE

2 comments:
A Sight You Seldom See
  • ATLANTIC BASIN NOW SUPPORTING 3 HURRICANES, 2 OF WHICH ARE CATEGORY 4, BOTH WITH WINDS OF 150 MPH (IRMA & JOSE) 
  • KATIA ONLY 6 MPH AWAY from becoming the THIRD consecutive category 3 or above storm to form just this month! 
HURRICANE 411 CENTER: IRMA, JOSE AND KATIA



Concerned about track changes?
Monitor the satellite loop
It is direct access to the most important model: Reality.




Wednesday, September 6, 2017

A STORM OF ITS OWN

2 comments:
A Storm of Its Own
  • Irma underwent an eyewall replacement cycle Wednesday evening, and appears to have experienced no change in wind speed, indicating it has influenced the atmosphere to the point of creating its own environment.
  • 40 foot wave heights in Antigua and British Virgin Islands, see Swellinfo.com
  • Complete devastation reported on the island of Barbuda, with 90% of structures damaged or destroyed. An anemometer failed at 155 mph before breaking off. 
  • NO-WIN FLORIDA: An 18-24 hour path along the Florida East coast, if it is crossed by the western eyewall as a Category 4/5, would produce widespread catastrophic damage equivalent to Hurricane Andrew were it to travel a 200 mile path from Miami to Jacksonsville. "Grazing" or "scraping" the coast with winds of 120-150 mph would not be an appropriate term to describe the immense danger this storm presents.



CATEGORY 5 IRMA TUESDAY EVENING, WINDS 185 MPH. THAT'S WINDY.
5 MPH SHY OF ALL TIME STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE (ALLEN, 1980)

SITUATION SUMMARY as of 3:00 PM WED 9/6/2017
  • A SHIFT HAS BEGUN. Some models earlier Tuesday and into the evening began shifting the Florida landfall track ideas to eastern side of the state, and several have moved back into the Atlantic. These include the Tue afternoon output of the US Global Forecast System.
  • BIG PLAYERS: The current south/central Florida projected path for late this weekend remains a dominant threat. However, several features including a depression in the Gulf, newly minted Tropical Storm Jose, the Atlantic ridge and the approaching trough from the western U.S. are all influencing the track of Irma. These are among the many reasons behind track fluctuations. 
  • STILL IN THE WOODS: Interests in the Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland and the Delmarva should remain on alert and well-informed of additional track changes which may be coming. A number of scenarios have yet to play out which could quickly bring Irma toward the Southeast coast. If the southern edge of the High weakens, or the western trough arrives sooner, or Jose changes forward speed...any of these could introduce an "escape hatch" to the north. This is behind the sharp right turn everyone has been observing sees in the models. Another 36 hours will be telling on which part of the East coast country is at highest risk for impacts or landfall.
  • WHAT WE REALLY THINK? While all eyes and thoughts are on a potentially devastating strike to Florida -- as well remembering the daily suffering after Harvey -- eastward shifts in models and other players are hinting that original track ideas toward the Carolinas and coastal Mid-Atlantic cannot be ruled out. We encourage Emergency Managers from the Carolinas north to Virginia and Maryland remain on an alert footing and avoid thinking a Florida hit eliminates risk. There is no guarantee of any one model track becoming true.

MODEL MAP TRACK FROM SATURDAY 9/2/2017 FOR COMPARISON