I figured that headline would get your attention. Yes, there is the potential of a major winter storm brewing for the as yet untouched I-95 corridor from DC to NYC. In fact, several world-reknown computer models (the European featured below, the Canadian, and the UKMET) all are predicting a significant to possibly crippling snowstorm for Saturday night into Sunday night. However, this is not to be the classic setup for major snow as was the case in February 2003. This is a "northern branch" storm, which means it is going to be all snow for everyone affected. The southern jet is not going to be involved with this, much like what happened in January 1996. It is a "cold-core" storm that does not feature a rain-snow line or any freezing precip, just all snow. Can you say, "Hallelujah!" ?
There will be a couple clipper systems to lay down an inch here and there across the Mid-Atlantic between now and Friday, but that is just a preview of the Big Kahuna.
By Wednesday, I expect the major media outlets will start to pickup on this, and by Friday it will be hyped into outer space. Everyone will be racing to the store, clearing out home depot of shovels and snowblowers. And you'll be resting comfortably in your well-stocked house, not stressing or worried about preparing for the storm. Why? Because you're reading this website and knew a week ago that this might be coming.
Several of the forecast offices in the National Weather Service, namely Baltimore-Washington and Richmond, have been poohpoohing the storm. That's because they mostly rely on the GFS, which is the US model. It would be nearly treason for them to base their forecast on FOREIGN computer modeling programs. Is there a hint of politics in this forecast maybe? I think you'll see private weather agencies be all over the storm, and then suddenly out of the blue... the NWS will appear to jump on the bandwagon with a Special Weather Statement Thursday, then a Winter Storm Watch Friday.
All your questions will soon be answered... like how much, when, where and so on. The basic 411 for you to begin planning on is:
- 6 TO 12 INCHES SNOWFALL for the major metropolitian areas from Richmond to Philly, perhaps as far north as NYC. This include all of central MD, metro Baltimore, Chester, Delaware Counties west of Philly, southern NJ, Del-Mar-Va. Baltimore NWS says the storm appears to be going out to sea, and is going to be a near miss for the major metro areas. We'll see who is right in the end.
- Time frame looks to be a Saturday morning start in western PA, Saturday afternoon in MD and continuing through Sunday night for all areas. It should really get cranking from late Saturday night into Sunday late afternoon.
- How certain am I this is a real forecast and NOT a wishcast? When most major computer model programs start coming into agreement on a significant winter weather event 5-6 days away, it is a very good bet they are right. Data from the 2003, 1996 and 1993 Blizzards has been added to their programming, thus these models are becoming more adept at spotting this kind of system farther in advance.
- Will this affect school on Monday or Tuesday of next week? If your school system was planning to hold classes as normal next Monday (not a teacher inservice) there is a strong likelihood school will be closed. What happens Tuesday depends on how quickly maintenance crews can clean up on Monday. A 12" storm on Sunday has the potential to produce at least a 2 hour delay on Tuesday due to the amount of time it takes to clear parking areas and bus lots.
More details on the evolution of this storm in the next several days. I am preparing for midterms and a ski trip so don't stress if I don't post more than once daily until about Thursday. So prepare yourself... for WINTER STRIKES BACK!