SADDLE UP YOUR HORSES,
WE GOTTA A TRAIL TO BLAZE
- Steven Curtis Chapman
TUE AM UPDATED SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
In the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, the Sun over the next 4 days may look and feel more like Spring but at the ground, winter refuses to let go of a persistently cold and windy pattern as shown by the "example forecast" for the Baltimore area. By St. Patrick’s Day, the only indication that spring is still on the calendar is the new grass beginning to make it’s appearance from Pennsylvania and New Jersey south. From The PA/NY line on north, deep snow cover will continue to reinforce the below normal temperatures. For all areas of the Northeast from DC on northward, temperatures will remain 10 or more degrees below normal this entire week. A high pressure system moving in to from central and southeast Canada to the Northeast and Great Lakes will be a key factor to set the stage for a significant winter storm to affect a very large portion of the East Coast by the weekend. A series of smaller storms will give rise the "Final Kahuna" and this storm may very well be the largest winter weather event of the season for the Mid-Atlantic. (Summary was posted on Saturday 3-12, and modified on 3-14)
TRAILBLAZER UPDATE: For those who are willing to be trailblazers and just want the quick rundown, it appears the Canadian High will keep storms below and away from the Northeast I-95 corridor and Mid-Atlantic Interior from DC north. The trailblazing will have to go on a few more days to get us to the weekend, which is where the Final Kahuna lies waiting.
WEATHER FOR SPRING SPORTS
The first part of the week will feature a cold and windy pattern enabling fields to dry. Coaches, AD’s and players are advised to take advantage of this week leading up to the first round of scrimmages and competitions after the 20th. The ‘Final Kahuna’ of the season is likely to cause a wide range of disruptions to the practice and game schedule from Thursday until early next week. The “aftermath” of this storm could continue to cause significant rescheduling problems in the week following the 20th. This will be the calmest week of the month regarding the weather, and an opportunity for teams to catch up on missed field time.
WHERE DID YOUR 'BIG STORM' GO MR. FOOT? COME ON NOW, GIVE IT UP.
Hey, be nice or else. I have made adjustments to the forecast because it appears that the Canadian High at the moment is going to hold it's ground and overpower the storm track along the East Coast. I'm not going to say "see I was right all along, I said the storms would stay south" etc. I will say that there is NO WAY OUT OF THIS PATTERN without a big storm to correct the imbalances in the atmosphere, especially the Blocking High problem in Canada/Greenland. A series of strong Canadian High argues for more cold air to influence the nation for the rest of the month. A suppressed polar jet being so close to the subtropical jet means that the danger remains for a big storm to develop with less than 48 hours notice on your local forecast is still on the table.
The first part of the week will feature a cold and windy pattern enabling fields to dry. Coaches, AD’s and players are advised to take advantage of this week leading up to the first round of scrimmages and competitions after the 20th. The ‘Final Kahuna’ of the season is likely to cause a wide range of disruptions to the practice and game schedule from Thursday until early next week. The “aftermath” of this storm could continue to cause significant rescheduling problems in the week following the 20th. This will be the calmest week of the month regarding the weather, and an opportunity for teams to catch up on missed field time.
WHERE DID YOUR 'BIG STORM' GO MR. FOOT? COME ON NOW, GIVE IT UP.
Hey, be nice or else. I have made adjustments to the forecast because it appears that the Canadian High at the moment is going to hold it's ground and overpower the storm track along the East Coast. I'm not going to say "see I was right all along, I said the storms would stay south" etc. I will say that there is NO WAY OUT OF THIS PATTERN without a big storm to correct the imbalances in the atmosphere, especially the Blocking High problem in Canada/Greenland. A series of strong Canadian High argues for more cold air to influence the nation for the rest of the month. A suppressed polar jet being so close to the subtropical jet means that the danger remains for a big storm to develop with less than 48 hours notice on your local forecast is still on the table.
There continues to be a lot of disparty and inconsistency in computer model projections for the period from Wednesday to Saturday. The first of a series of smaller systems is tracking east out of the Southern Plains and will follow a Shreveport, LA – Knoxville, TN – Richmond, VA line. At the same time, a large and expansive Canadian High pressure is forecasted to nose out into the Atlantic in advance of this storm.
The current European model has waffled a bit on this idea, and has now changed it's tune to follow some of the other models suppressing all storms this week to the Carolinas. Keep in mind that every significant storm this winter, with 2 notable exceptions (last weekend and the Sunday-Monday light snow in VA) started out suppressed far to the south in computer models. Forecasters said, "it will miss us to the south" and the "US" being anyone from Richmond north. The Feb 24-25 storm was supposed to "miss Baltimore" to the south in the 3 day forecast prior to the event. Result: We had 5 inches of snow in my bacykard at Dundalk, MD from a storm that was going to miss us to the south. So this week, there are a lot of valid concerns on the table from either side of the aisle. On one side , a trend to the north will find forecasters hastily revising their outlooks to make it appear they were calling for this storm all along. On the other side, there are reasons to believe the suppressed flow could keep storms to the south. Either way, I will break down the overview on this storm into 3 sections:
1. THE ROUGH GUIDE…Timing, Snowfall, Impacts.
2. METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF THE PATTERN that will create this storm
3. A PREVIEW OF MODEL MAYHEM AND FORECASTING FUMBLES
First, the Rough Guide.
This is designed for those who just want to know how much, when and where. Keep in mind that I understand your skepticism with this forecast, but in Foot’s Forecast tradition I have to put out the call now, so that when the weather service and TV stations start jumping on the bandwagon, you’ll understand why.
TIMING: The "storm" to which I am referring is now looking to be a (groan) weekend event in the Saturday timeframe. No matter how it ends up, this will be a long duration event with the classic multi-day buildup, media madness and subsequent supermarket pandemonium. If the European model is right, then the timeframe for snowy and windy conditions for the Mid-Atlantic could begin as early as Saturday morning. One important factor that was alluded to last weekend on this site, and has now come true is...."the strength and movement of the High pressure which could delay or speed up the storm’s arrival." A saying used at Accuweather is: “Predict the High and you predict the storm.”
1. THE ROUGH GUIDE…Timing, Snowfall, Impacts.
2. METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF THE PATTERN that will create this storm
3. A PREVIEW OF MODEL MAYHEM AND FORECASTING FUMBLES
First, the Rough Guide.
This is designed for those who just want to know how much, when and where. Keep in mind that I understand your skepticism with this forecast, but in Foot’s Forecast tradition I have to put out the call now, so that when the weather service and TV stations start jumping on the bandwagon, you’ll understand why.
TIMING: The "storm" to which I am referring is now looking to be a (groan) weekend event in the Saturday timeframe. No matter how it ends up, this will be a long duration event with the classic multi-day buildup, media madness and subsequent supermarket pandemonium. If the European model is right, then the timeframe for snowy and windy conditions for the Mid-Atlantic could begin as early as Saturday morning. One important factor that was alluded to last weekend on this site, and has now come true is...."the strength and movement of the High pressure which could delay or speed up the storm’s arrival." A saying used at Accuweather is: “Predict the High and you predict the storm.”
AREAS OF IMPACT: The "Final Kahuna" storm has the potential to deliver heavy wet snow in a large portion of the Mid-Atlantic from central Virginia to the the Del-Mar-Va north to central and eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and more likely now southern New England. Whether northern New England gets in the game is not clear yet. However, many of our "southern storms" trended much farther north than anticipated. With the North Atlantic Oscillation forecasted to rise toward neutral after the 16th, this is a telltale sign the forecast could be changing as the week progresses. As always, I will be refining the geographical area to be impacted by this storm as it gets closer.
SNOWFALL: I have made a comparison to the March 1958 storm in the Mid-Atlantic as a guide for this event, which closed schools in Chester County, PA for 2 weeks due to the 4 feet of heavy wet snow. Some of the ‘seasoned’ teachers at my school recall that storm from how high the snow got ABOVE their first story window. I am NOT saying that 4 feet is in the cards, I am making reference to a late season storm which dumped a lot of snow in a cold and stormy March. For the past few days, the European model showed an arrangement which would have easily delivered 1-2 feet of heavy, wind-whipped wet snow for many areas south of I-80 to Virginia. Now those models are sending the storms south, which at first glance seems disappointing or great depending on your point of view.
SNOWFALL: I have made a comparison to the March 1958 storm in the Mid-Atlantic as a guide for this event, which closed schools in Chester County, PA for 2 weeks due to the 4 feet of heavy wet snow. Some of the ‘seasoned’ teachers at my school recall that storm from how high the snow got ABOVE their first story window. I am NOT saying that 4 feet is in the cards, I am making reference to a late season storm which dumped a lot of snow in a cold and stormy March. For the past few days, the European model showed an arrangement which would have easily delivered 1-2 feet of heavy, wind-whipped wet snow for many areas south of I-80 to Virginia. Now those models are sending the storms south, which at first glance seems disappointing or great depending on your point of view.
Next, the Analysis.
The purpose of the on-going headline “Saddle up your horses, we gotta a trail to blaze” is to point out that this forecast, as compared to what you will read or hear in the next 3-5 days, will be blazing a trail into uncharted territory. Please note that if the elements I describe in the my storm evolution post do not come together, and this storm all goes over to rain, or stays south and never happens, then I will be the first to explain why that happened. I see that some computer models are having a hard time resolving the many anomalous features in the atmosphere over North America. However...it’s been TWELVE YEARS since our last major March storm to affect the East Coast. We are due. The 3 major climate indices for North America have made condition favorable for a major storm to develop, it will take a couple days for there to be some agreement reached by models on how to handle this system now moving out of the southern Rockies and into Texas.
I realize that the NWS and TWC forecasts have been waffling all over the place. What do you expect? Yesterday it was snow showers, then earlier today it was rain AND snow, then plain SNOW on the NWS forecast, now it is partly to mostly cloudy with no precip at all. They are pretty much tied to the GFS..so whichever direction the wind is blowing on that computer model any given hour will govern how your local forecast advertises this event. By tomorrow morning, it'll be back to rain mixing with and changing to rain... I...I mean snow, er uh, partly to mostly rain/snowy, or something like that.
MAJOR PLAYERS TO INFLUENCE DEVELOPMENT OF FINAL KAHUNA These are the atmospheric and oceanic influences currently in place all of which have a hand in creating our storm. A graphic posted by WxRisk.com maps this out nicely. I will explain in detail each of these players in the next day or two so you understand the big picture of how this storm can develop, as well as how the forecast can bust if these players do not put their cards out in the correct sequence.
1. RECENT SERIES OF NEW ENGLAND STORMS
2. GREENLAND HIGH PRESSURE BLOCK
3. WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
4. ABOVE NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES IN GULF OF MEXICO
5. UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM SO. CALIFORNIA TO MEXICO
6. PERSISTENT WESTERN U.S./PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
Again, please check back later today for more details on the storm evolution analysis. I have actually hand written the whole idea, but have not had time to type it yet.
Update on the Sunday River Snowfall Contest: We are trying to get a firm accumulation number. It is somewhere between 12-24" but not sure on the precise amount.
BRIEF COMMENTARY ON WEATHER BLOGGING
The popularity of "weather blogs" throughout the country has risen from barely noticeable to very noticeable this past year. There are many high quality sites out there with a plethora of information to satisfy the appetite of any weather enthusiast. It is a veritable feast out there on the internet nowadays for what one can discover about the weather, and I appreciate the time and energy which countless thousands have put into making this interest for all of us more than just a "fun little hobby." I believe I can accurately speak for many like myself in saying that those of us passionate about the weather view this as a serious and life-long commitment to understand and appreciate the complexities of Mother Nature. For many of the people who put in a considerable amount of their own personal time which could be spent doing something else, following and forecasting weather is an important undertaking for them. I for one appreciate their passion, regardless of if they are a professional meteorologist or merely enjoy posting comments about the weather on discussion boards. So if you have found this site just today, or have been following it for a long time, you should feel welcome as a member of this unique community where all viewpoints and input are equally respected.