WINTER STRIKES BACK WITH A VENGENCE
FOR THOSE OF US IN THE NORTHEAST, WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES! Monday afternoon I was resting comfortably after school in my "captain's chair" in the corner of my room as the wonderful sunshine filtered through the blinds. I am looking out over green fields and blue skies. The temperature is 70 degrees in downtown Baltimore.
24 HOURS LATER...I am sitting in the same chair, looking out the same window. A near blinding mini-blizzard has just ended, the fields of green are white again. The temperature is 26 F and wind is howling something fierce. No doubt all of you experienced in some unique way how Winter hit back hard today. The winds beating against my door makes it feel as though if I were to open it, I would find myself back on Killington Peak in Vermont in -30 temperatures.
SO THIS IS WINTER'S LAST BLAST? Oh no no no. I know it seems that weather people keep saying this, but it continues to be true....the WORST is YET to come. If you thought this was bad, wait until you see the weekend storm that will be a bonafide coastal and not a bomber that drops and moves on. Behind that storm is more cold air and wind that will test even those with nerves of steel. And after that is the potential for the grand finale blockbuster event of the winter I've been indicating now for weeks and weeks. The ULTRA KAHUNA that will once and for all end this whole charade and get the atmosphere moving toward Spring again.
WHAT ULTRA KAHUNA? It's been 12 years since the last one, and there are many lined up in history that were the final great event of the winter and served to once and for all kill the polar vortex pattern and send it back to where it belongs... THE POLE! The timeframe for this very significant East Coast event looks to be in the period from St. Patrick's Day to the 20th. The Ultra Kahuna of March 1958 dropped 4 feet of heavy wet snow just west of the major cities from DC to NYC. The pattern we are in favors this whole game to go out in a blinding white squall of glory that will challenge even the hardiest powderhounds and make them cry uncle.
UNTIL THEN, THE FOCUS IS ON THE SET OF MAJOR SNOWSTORMS TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST...the Tuesday-Wednesday event and the Friday-Sunday event.
Current Storm: An overall 6-12" was a reasonable forecast for areas from Boston on north and west into interior New England. Local amounts in excess of 12" are likely from central Vermont into central and northern Maine. Other forecasts that verified fairly well was the 2-4" in New York City and 3-6" in Connecticut and Rhode Island. As you already know, incredibly strong winds of 50-60 mph and blizzard-like conditions raked most of New England yesterday and today, as a sub 970 mb low continues to intensify and charge northeast. These are the kind of pressures we usually see in tropical systems. The last storm to have a pressure nearly this low was... the March 1993 Superstorm. All this from a glorified cold front. Makes you wonder what the next storm could end up doing.
The Next Storm: Since you asked, I'll explain it. This second event has the potential to be a very heavy snow producer for the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and New England again. It is a system coming east out of the Lakes which will incorporate upper level energy from a shortwave in the southeast, and then "bomb out" once it reaches the coast. New information makes it more likely that the Lakes system will head across Pennsylvania, reach the Jersey coast, and then intensify heading north-northeast. This would make it another major storm for most of New England into the weekend.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS: This will be a hit and miss storm for areas from Philadelphia on south and west. The slowly rising negative NAO will allow for this system to lift north and keep accumulations in the PHL to DC corridor less than 4 inches overall. However from northern New Jersey to Maine, be on the lookout for another potentially explosive storm that could EQUAL OR EXCEED amounts from the current storm. A general guide this time around would be another 6-12" forecast from N NJ to Maine, except that most areas should be at the 6" mark or above it.
More evidence this will be a Boston and north event is the current Day 4-5 QPF. It shows a moderate amount of precip .25-.50 in the southern I-95 corridor from Friday morning to Sunday morning, with .5 to .75 in northern New England. Higher snow ratios farther north in the drier air will mean a 15:1 conversion, and perhaps 20:1 in far northern areas above Burlington and west of Portland, ME.
TIMING OF THE STORM: In the southern I-95 corridor, (PHL on south) snow showers will be on the increase Friday and taper off by Saturday morning. Central and eastern PA could easily get 3-6", more the farther east you live. Again this has explosive written all over it as a sharp temperature contrasts between the Gulf stream and coastal waters will allow this Low to really crank up as quickly as the current storm did. From Central and Northern NJ to Boston, expect snow to break out by Friday night, and move up the coast by Saturday morning, with snow throughout the day Saturday, tapering with gusty winds behind it late in the day.
SPRING SPORTS FORECAST: Strong March sun will melt the light snow covering today in most areas in southern PA and Maryland. Breezy and cold winds will dry fields off quickly, but make practice very unpleasant, especially for coaches who have to stand still and tolerate the wind whipping through your coat. Snow showers returning Friday makes for another day indoors. Next week, some warming back to seasonal temperatures is expected, highs getting back to the low 50's in advance of yes... another big storm late in the week.