ALMOST DE JA VU ALL OVER AGAIN
WED 5:00 PM. I personally was glad not to see an early dismissal, as today might have been the only day this week I see my Environmental Science students. With interim quarter grades due Friday, I knew it be their last chance to lock in the grade they want. They all knew why, as the word has gotten around about Friday's storm. But then you should have seen the look on their face when I mentioned what's brewing for NEXT week! The next 10 days could turn out to be among the most exciting periods of winter weather of the decade. "What would cause that to happen?" they wondered. "Oh nothing big, really, just a massive hemispheric trough extending from the Arctic circle to the Gulf of Mexico, with a possible stalled cutoff Low parked over the East Coast..for a day or two. Kinda like March 1993. That's all. Okay, now back to the assignment that's due by the end of class." :::stunned silence deer in headlights::: Needless to say, they were motivated to get the work done.
WED EVENING DISCLAIMER: Note that at the end of class I showed them via the internet these were not my original ideas, but that of two different forecasters whom report on long range trends. I'd never have enough expertise to create that kind of dream scenario on my own...and end up being right.
DELAYS ON THURSDAY MORNING? Difficult to predict this early, depends a lot on how much more falls, if there is rapid refreezing overnight. I would definitely set the alarm, and just be pleasantly surprised (or annoyed) if there is one.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: There are no major changes except to make it clear I expect more ice than snow due to cold air damming at the surface. This high probability of frozen precipitation and it's arrival overnight into Friday morning makes the closing of schools and colleges a near slam dunk. A roundup of what the evening forecasters are saying will be very interesting to see, I expect a wide range of ideas.
WED 6:00 AM. With a snow advisory posted for central and western Maryland, NWS ideas on the clipper arriving this afternoon are now coming around to what has been discussed here for several days. The general thinking on this first round has been that it will be light and intermittent, and not enough to prompt early dismissal of schools. However, this is also a case of De Ja Vu all over again, because those were the original ideas on the Dec 5 "Little Storm That Could." So what's the likely situation this time? Given a reasonable radar presentation, and the fact a slightly warmer atmosphere can provide additional moisture, we cannot rule out a one hour early dismissal for schools in the Baltimore Metro area. Of course, if you see the "blues" falling apart coming over the mountains, then game over. Those of you with access to comments, please continue to post your observations and any changes you detect in the forecast.
SPECIAL NOTE TO COACHES AND ATHLETIC DIRECTORS: Even without an early dismissal, the clipper's arrival time of 1 PM - 3PM does present the possibility that afternoon and evening activities will be cancelled.