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Sunday, March 16, 2014

From Blue & Green... to Gray & White

From Blue & Green... to Gray & White
LATE WINTER STORM FOR MID-ATLANTIC & CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION
3-6" EXPECTED FOR DC & BALTIMORE METROS, UP TO 8" ALONG I-81 CORRIDOR

7:10 PM 3/16 – TEAM UPDATE & SNOWFALL MAP
(Wishing for a less white and a more green this St. Patrick’s Day?)





With another late-season snowstorm arriving in this region, here are the latest thoughts from our Winter Stormcast team. 



TIMING: 

  • We expect precipitation to begin around 5-8 PM from SW to NE. We may not be all snow to start as the cold air hasn’t arrived quite yet. 
  • Most of the Mid-Atlantic should fall below freezing by around 9-11 PM with all snow falling at that time. 
  • The heaviest snow is expected from 11PM-5AM, prior to sunrise. Snow rates will slow down towards sunrise and the morning hours, but another quick burst is possible during the late morning. 

IMPACTS: Some accumulation may be lost initially due to warm ground temps, but once the heavier snow moves in and the temperatures get into the 20s, snow should stick fairly easily. It will still take longer to stick to roadways. Accumulations on the roadways will be slightly less than what is shown on the map. Road conditions should begin to improve when the strong March sun arrives Monday morning. 



HOW COULD THE FORECAST GO WRONG?

1. Overperform Scenario (25%) – We are watching the potential for heavy snow bands to set up over the region. This will be oriented west to east, and moving WSW-ENE which means that there could be areas that get higher totals if they get stuck under the band for a long period of time. We will be watching to see where this sets up. 

2. Bust Scenario (10%) – If warm ground temps prevail and snow rates aren’t very exceptional, snow could simply fall and melt for the initial parts of the storm. The heavier snowfall rates that come in later could just not be enough to get to the expected totals. 

LANDSCAPING ONCE SPRING COMES? To get you through these tiresome late winter days, we invite you to check out the cool projects from our partner at Four Seasons Landscaping & Nursery in Damascus, MD. They have a full range of services including patios, pools and top class landscaping for your unique property needs. http://www.fourseasonslandscaping.net/

Stay with us and have a wonderful day (as best as you can considering the weather!) Let us know how you are coping... special dinner, trip away, Netflix festival?

(Forecaster Mike N., Advisor Foot and the WSC Team)

10:46 AM 3/16 - TEAM UPDATE on tonight's winter weather event for the central & southern Mid-Atlantic (PA you luck out this time!)


We honestly don't like throwing cold water while you all are enjoying a nice sunny day. It's way more work to bring the bad news, when this time of year we prefer to make the switch to "fusion forecasting" and working with our outdoor event partners to get Spring into swing! 



But alas, there is still some Pow left in the winter machine. (See we didn't use the P-word...)



CURRENTLY: Smashing Blue Skies! Boy it sure is nice. If you still want to get a project in, or a trip to the park, go for it! You have at least 3+ hours of sunshine left before clouds roll in. Temps will top in the low 40s for northern MD, northern WV, and mid-upper 40s from the I-81 corridor east to DC and Baltimore. Too cold to plant bulbs today? Perhaps. But SUNDOGS can rejoice for a little while!



OK, THE BAD NEWS: Winter Weather Advisories are in effect starting tonight for northern MD, with a large area of Winter Storm Warnings from DC metro into Southern MD, central VA, metro Richmon and over to the MD/VA eastern shore. Official NWS details:




THIS AFTERNOON: As the Eurthymics would say, "here comes the rain again, falling on my head like a tragedy." Hard to believe that all this nice blueness will be grayness by 4PM and snowness by 7 PM. LOADS of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is being drawn north as our winds in MD already shifted to N and NNE. Wind in VA are E to SE. That spells snow, no two ways about it. The upper atmosphere will begin moistening and you'll see the cloud cover thicken and lower toward sunset. Current radar:


TONIGHT: Seeing snow by 7 PM TODAY when it was 70 F(!!!) YESTERDAY in DC  is not exactly the luckiest winning number around, unless you're a Powd... okay we'll spare you this time. The first few hours of snowfall will look pretty and probably stick to trees but melt on roads. Thus, the 0.60-0.90 of liquid printed out by the models for BWI will get zapped down to an actual 0.40-ish by daybreak. With a 10:1 ratio, that's where the general 2-4" ideas come from.

OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING: Heaviest snow is exepcted from 11 PM to about 5 AM across the region, with lesser amounts Baltimore City and north, higher amounts in the DC metro on south. Here's a repost of our snowfall ideas from last night:
  • 2-4 inches for Central MD (but around 2" near the PA line of Frederick, Carroll, northern Baltimore, Harford and Cecil.)
  • 3-4 inches in Baltimore City-northern Howard-northern Anne Arundel 
  • 3-5 inches from southern Anne Arundel over to the DC metro and Southern MD.
  • 4-7 inches in Northern Virginia, as well as the Eastern WV panhandle including Martinsburg. 
  • 5-6 inches are also expected across the Bay from Talbot County south to Salisbury & Ocean City. On the western shore, that includes the Northern Neck-Richmond and the Tidewater.
  • Up to 8" along and west of I-81 corridor in the VA/West Virginia/Shenandoah region
BOTTOM LINE: By the crucial decision hours of 5:00-6:00 AM for government agencies and school districts, we do expect snow to be falling moderately across the area, with a general 2" or so on the ground for most of us. 

ROADS & SCHOOLS: As for the tough decisions that others have to make, we do remind that the March sun is on your side. By 8 AM, rising sun angle will start to work wonders on roads that were pretreated overnight (with brown sugar if course, since all the white sugar is long gone in road crew coffee, and the salt is WAY past gone for some areas!;-). We don't do school closing or opening predictions, but we can say that by 9 AM, depending on local conditions, it is not unreasonable to expect a quick improvement in road conditions once the Sun gets to work. 

CONNECT & REPORT IN WITH OUR LOCAL TEAM ZONES!

WHO'S READY FOR A BIRDLAND or NATS DAY? Our team would like to gauge reader interest in meeting up this Spring with O's or Nats fans who are also FF readers, preferably on a sunny Saturday in April or May (there's lot of those in MD, right??) What days would you suggest we target for a team-reader day at Camden Yards or Nationals Park? We look forward to meeting you all and starting some new traditions here at FF!

Photo of Camden Yards by Maryland reader Gloria Bethke

Image and data sources:

GFS/NAM Liquid Projections:

NOAA Weather Prediction Center US Liquid Maps

(Forecasters Foot, Jason M., Connor M., Julian B., Mintong N., Kate O., Andrew B., Justin B., Joe F., Matt B., Nick G., Advisor Lear, Meteorologist Dr. Pete W. & the WSC Team)
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