(Who's) Got The Eye of the Tiger?"
- Katy Perry in the 2013 single Roar
LATEST NWS REGIONAL WARNING MAP | DAY 1-3 LIQUID PROJECTIONS
- Katy Perry in the 2013 single Roar
LATEST NWS REGIONAL WARNING MAP | DAY 1-3 LIQUID PROJECTIONS
- AREAS OF HEAVIEST SNOW MAY BE ALONG I-81 TO I-64 CORRIDOR TO SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND DC METRO OVER TO MIDDLE EASTERN SHORE
- HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED 5-10 AM WITH RATES OF 2"/HOUR POSSIBLE. A LULL AROUND NOON WITH A SECOND BURST 1-3 PM.
- NEAR-ZERO TEMPS TUE MORNING FOR THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST
11:00 PM 3/2 (UPDATE FROM WSC TEAM) Warnings to the south and Advisories to the north? That's not normal! (By Forecaster Mike & Advisor Foot)
- This may be that rare storm where Annapolis ends up with more snow than York, PA. We have many important details included in this post so be sure to read ahead! The NWS in State College is responsible for southern PA and has downgraded to Winter Weather Advisories in response to lesser totals across the border.
- ADVISORIES - From the US National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington, the Winter Storm Warning began at 7PM for the counties along the Mason-Dixon Line in addition to Montgomery and Howard, and begins at midnight for the counties south of there. The Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ NWS also has a mix of warnings to the south and east, with advisories to the north.
- TIMING - We expect sleet/freezing rain to start mixing in from north to south around 9PM-Midnight. We are in a lull in between two waves of precipitation right now. Light mixing with snow is possible for the northern counties in between the waves. Then after midnight the snow will push southward increasing in intensity. The heaviest snow is anticipated during the morning rush hour from 4AM-Noon, with the heavier rates south of Baltimore.
- ACCUMULATIONS: In general we expect 4-8" towards the north near the Mason-Dixon line, and 6-10" further south. We do think a heavy snow band will set up, likely near of south of DC-Annapolis, and stretching westward. This band could be similar to December 8th, 2013, just in a different area.
OUTDOOR EQUIPMENT OR SERVICING? For Central Maryland readers, we recommend the good folks at GAMBRILLS EQUIPMENT CO. in Severn, Anne Arundel County. They have a full line of snow throwers up to 21", top names in big saws, as well as service many outdoor equipment types including tractors, mowers, snowblowers and more. It's not too late to get heavy-duty equipment for this storm: 410-969-3947
6:25 PM 3/2 ( UPDATE FROM WSC TEAM) March 2014 roars in like a lion! Or a full pride of lions might be more accurate. Here is our latest timing and snowfall accumulation expectations from the Winter Stormcast Team. See below for the most current snow map:
- TIMING: Rain moving in now, mixing with sleet and freezing rain later this evening, then switching to all snow from north to south late tonight. The heaviest snow is expected Monday morning.
- ACCUMULATIONS: Widespread 6-10" with lesser amounts of 4-8" along the Mason-Dixon line. We expect a band of higher amounts (8-14") to set up, but the precise location is uncertain.
- TEMPS: Bitterly cold conditions are expected Monday night, with temperatures falling to the single digits for much of the region, and possibly below 0ºF for the northern suburbs.
(Forecasters Mike, Andrew, Julian, Jason, Advisors Foot, Keith, Rob, Brad)
11:50 AM 3/2 (UPDATE from Maryland Team) Latest indications from radar and observations show a large batch of moisture working east with the Arctic front. We expect temps will top out in the next 2-3 hours then drift down as precip moves in by 3 PM from west to east. For our current snowfall and timing map, please scroll down! The big concerns are:
1) If temps end up lower than expected today, rain could change to sleet more quickly, then to freezing rain in early evening.
2) High water content in the energy coming northeast means once rain mixes with sleet, it could begin falling very heavily anytime after 9 PM, and continue for several hours before changing to all snow from southwest to northeast. Areas nearest the Bay and I-95 will be last to changeover to all snow, closer to midnight.
3) The real question-- how much time do you have today?? If you plan to make final outdoor preparations before precip, we think you have until about 3 PM - then until about 6 PM before frozen precip starts to mix in from north to south. Northern areas along the PA/MD line should see mixing first, between 4-6 PM.
Let us know as soon as you see precip in your area-- even those far flung from Cen MD, distant obs are very helpful no matter the location!
7:15 AM 3/2 (Winter Stormcast Team) After this unforgiving winter of discontent, we bet you all would prefer going BACK to the future of warm, snowless winters right? Well, not in this reality, or at least in this winter.
11:50 AM 3/2 (UPDATE from Maryland Team) Latest indications from radar and observations show a large batch of moisture working east with the Arctic front. We expect temps will top out in the next 2-3 hours then drift down as precip moves in by 3 PM from west to east. For our current snowfall and timing map, please scroll down! The big concerns are:
1) If temps end up lower than expected today, rain could change to sleet more quickly, then to freezing rain in early evening.
2) High water content in the energy coming northeast means once rain mixes with sleet, it could begin falling very heavily anytime after 9 PM, and continue for several hours before changing to all snow from southwest to northeast. Areas nearest the Bay and I-95 will be last to changeover to all snow, closer to midnight.
3) The real question-- how much time do you have today?? If you plan to make final outdoor preparations before precip, we think you have until about 3 PM - then until about 6 PM before frozen precip starts to mix in from north to south. Northern areas along the PA/MD line should see mixing first, between 4-6 PM.
Let us know as soon as you see precip in your area-- even those far flung from Cen MD, distant obs are very helpful no matter the location!
"ROADS? Where we're going,
we don't NEED roads!"
- Doc Brown in 1985's Back To The Future
- Doc Brown in 1985's Back To The Future
THE SITUATION: A potentially overperforming and even high impact storm is plowing the nation asunder as massive amounts of liquid from the Pacific are coming on shore in California, and will become incorporated in a southward sliding Arctic front. In fact the cold to come on Monday in the Mid-Atlantic may be the coldest in ten years for this month, since the days after the February 2003 blizzard that saw a similar early March Arctic outbreak.
This will be a most unusual storm in it's intensity and duration for early March in the major metro areas, as well as for it's expansiveness across the entire Nation. As for our headline, once you see how the storm plays out you'll understand the unique nature of what is to come by Monday morning across VA, MD, DE and PA.
TIMING
- ON SUNDAY: The storm gets underway in the Mid-Atlantic in a relatively calm manner. No wall of white or crushing burst of wind. But that will belie a more sneaky development: A slithersome Arctic front that is pressing in as seen on radar. Temperatures may cross 50 F in some areas near DC and on the eastern shore. It might even feel warm for a couple hours. Be advised: It is a weather ruse from Old Man Winter.
- SUNDAY NIGHT: Rain develops by mid afternoon across much of the region as temperatures begin the slide from 45-50 to the upper 30s by nightfall. This should last until the evening hours, where a change to a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow is expected around 8-10pm for the entire area. Sleet will continue to mix with all snow after midnight. Expect some breaks in precipitation during the late overnight time period.
- MONDAY MORNING: Heavy snow will become the dominant precipitation type between 5-7 AM as temperatures continue to dive, dropping to below freezing before the morning commute, so anything that is not frozen by that time will be by 7-8 AM.
- MONDAY AM TO EVENING: Were Clint Eastwood a forecaster, Monday's setup would NOT make his day. The heaviest snowfall will occur across the region during the hours of 6 AM-3 PM, and begin to taper off after that time. This final round of heavier snowfall will impact PA east of the Susquehanna and the entire Maryland, New Jersey, and Philly metro and suburb areas. Those to the north and west will see the bulk of the storm taper off by morning.
AMOUNTS: This virtual "coast to coast" storm will have liquid input from THREE (or FOUR) major bodies of water! The Pacific, the Great Lakes (that are not frozen over), the Gulf of Mexico AND the Atlantic. So yes, it will be wet. NOAA Precipitation projections have been showing well over an inch of liquid for the entire multi-state region for this storm.
- As shown on our map, we project the axis of heaviest snow to setup along and within 50 miles either side of the I-95 corridor. The area of 6-12" denotes that we believe a number of heavy snow bands will develop Monday morning. The southward pressing Arctic air will make for an unusual situation on Monday.
- While many areas will see sleet and freezing rain overnight, as Monday progresses, snow may actually INCREASE in intensity despite a March sun because temperatures will drop to the TEENS, believe it or not, across most of PA, northern VA, WV, central and western MD.
Sleet and Freezing Rain may top 0.20" of an inch in areas where less snow is forecasted on the map, and in places where higher totals are shown, it is possible some locations could go in excess of 12" where temps are lowest and there is a faster changeover to snow from frozen precip.
IMPACTS: The timing of this storm is extremely crucial to the impacts. Take these impacts into consideration before making an effort to travel Monday morning if the forecasted conditions develop as expected.
- The worst of the storm will occur just before, during, and after the normal morning commute hours. Heavy snowfall (possibly mixing with sleet early on during the rush) will make for very hazardous, slippery driving conditions.
- Temperatures will be diving down through this time period as well, freezing anything left on untreated roads. Winds during the main portion of the storm on Monday are expected to be out of the north behind the front at around 10-20 mph.
- In addition to the snowfall being heavy, it is expected to be a dry, fluffy snow, which will blow around fairly easily, causing visibility issues on the roadways at times. All in all, the worst impacts of the storm will occur from around rush hour until near the end of the workday.
BUST SCENARIOS – March snowstorms are not kind to weather forecasters as we all learned last year. So what could go wrong with this one? To start, we don’t think a repeat of March 6th, 2013 is likely. On that day, temperatures were just around freezing all the way up to Canada – thus no feed of cold air.
This time, we have record challenging cold in place and temperatures well below zero in southern Canada.
A) ARCTIC PLOW! (25% Chance) – If arctic air just plows right through, the heavier snow could be shifted south of our region. Yes, south. We still get the cold, but not enough moisture to get to the 6-12” of snow we expect.
B) OVERPERFORMING? (20% Chance) – If the cold comes in on track and more moisture floods in, we could have something similar to February 12-13, where 6-12” ends up quite a bit more. With snow to liquid ratios greater than 10:1, much of the region could get double digit snow totals with up to 16” possible in some areas. We will be watching all three of these potentials closely!
C) MARCH STRIKES AGAIN... (10% Chance)– If the cold front stalls too far north, we could have sleet and rain mixing until sunrise, then the snow has trouble sticking after sunrise. This would give us some slushy slop that freezing quickly Monday afternoon.
RECORD COLD TO FOLLOW? – Monday night will be brutally cold. Temperatures could fall to the single digits for much of the region with some areas potentially falling below 0°F for those right along the Mason-Dixon Line. We’ll focus more on this after the storm, but this would be a rare beast indeed for the month of March!
Forecasters and Advisors who tirelessly contributed to this report include:
- Mike Natoli, UM College Park
- Andrew Barney, Penn State
- Jason Mitchell, College of Southern Maryland
- Connor Meehan, Howard County Community College
- Joey Krastel, Community College of Baltimore County
- Julian Baron, Gilman School - Baltimore City
- Dr. Pete W., Research Meteorologist
- Advisors Rich Foot and Brad Lear