Another Surprise Snow?
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE CAROLINA COASTAL SYSTEM. MIGHT THE NWS RAISE ADVISORIES FOR DC METRO & OTHER AREAS?
IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE. ENTER SURPRISE SNOW #2.
IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE. ENTER SURPRISE SNOW #2.
IF THIS TURNS INTO AN UNEXPECTED SNOW EVENT,
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY 1" OR MORE
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WOULD BE:
Washington DC metro area to southern Maryland, including the counties of Prince Georges, Calvert, Calvert Southern Baltimore metro area including counties of Anne Arundel, Howard Delmarva Peninsula including Dover, Salisbury, Ocean City and VA peninsula communities Eastern North Carolina and Southeast VA
3:10 PM 1/13 - OVERVIEW STATEMENT FROM WINTER STORMCAST TEAM
We have been tracking an upper level shortwave moving northeast from the Gulf of Mexico, using some "old time techniques" that might be unfamiliar to even today's meteorologists. This approach suggested even yesterday the situation for Wednesday might not turn out as low impact as some currently expect.
Some computer models and short range maps at the NOAA Weather Prediction Center have been depicting an interaction between this shortwave, energy embedded under the High pressure, and a surface coastal system developing off the Carolinas.
What is going ON here? We think three factors are in play:
1) On-shore flow from the Atlantic courtesy of the northern High shown in this map will moisten the eastern Mid-Atlantic tonight into Wednesday.
2) Influence of the upper level short wave may enhance this moisture and touch off snow in areas that DO NOT AT ALL expect there to be more than flurries. Where? How about DC metro, southern Baltimore and the Chesapeake Bay.
3) Very cold air at the surface and upper levels would convert this moisture into snow, right quick, with rather high ratios if 5,000 foot temperatures will be between -10 C and -20 C tonight over these regions.
If you or someone you know is in charge of transportation duties for large organizations in these areas, might want to start checking the National Weather Service forecast in your area -- just so there's no surprises! We will have additional details on this potential system later this evening.
(If you don't believe what you're seeing above.)
(Forecasters Foot, Troy A., Connor M., Jason M., Mike N.)
(Forecasters Foot, Troy A., Connor M., Jason M., Mike N.)