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Sunday, February 1, 2015

Kahuna Bachata?

Kahuna Bachata?

  • WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, WATCHES AND WARNINGS STRETCH NEARLY 2,000 MILES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
  • NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES RETURN IN STORM'S WAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT - AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT


KAHUNA = In Hawaiian culture, a medicine man, sorcerer, priest or person of preeminence. On this site, a term first used in 2004 to describe a potentially significant winter storm that could produce 6-12" or more of snow over a large area.

BACHATA =  A form of music and dance with origins in the neighborhoods of the Dominican Republic. The genre is usually romantic and prevalent with tales of heartbreak and sadness.  In the FF Team, Bachata refers to a winter storm not delivering the expected outcome for an area, in contrast to a bust for a large scale under-performing storm. 

7:31 AM 2/1 – FINAL MAP & PROJECTIONS (Forecaster Mike Natoli, Advisor Foot and the Winter Stormcast Team) 

Saturday sure felt like winter, and now right on schedule, the next winter weather event is charging across the country. Haven't seen the NWS national advisory map? Better take a look. It's a sight to behold. Although sections of the Mid-Atlantic may not seem significant impact, many other areas of the country most definitely will, affecting inter-state commerce, schools, airlines and transportation.






CURRENTLY 
Winter Storm Watches and Warnings now stretch almost 2,000 miles from Owls Head Island in Down East Maine clear across to Hog country in Oshkosh, Nebraska! But unfortunately for the Mid-Atlantic Powderhounds, the "Kahuna" scenario is very unlikely at this point. It would also not be accurate to deem the system "a bust" 24 hours in advance seeing that it has not yet arrived. Please see our "bust scenarios" below for reference.




With consensus in the computer guidance and the storm moving through the Central Plains, by tonight, we expect a Low pressure center to move north of the I-95 corridor and usher warm air into the southern and central mid-Atlantic. For those hosting SuperBowl events and for students and teachers alike: Best not to stay up real late watching the radar then mosey home thinking you'll get Monday off to rest up.

SYNOPSIS & TIMING – A low pressure will move into the region from the west, but most likely take a track just north of us. Some wintry precipitation is possible for locations closer to the Mason-Dixon Line. South of BWI, we generally expect mainly rain.




  • Overnight into Sunday, precipitation will extend through the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys before reaching the Mid-Atlantic and eastern metro areas around Noon
  • Rain is expected in the South with mixed snow, sleet, and ice for the northern counties late Sunday evening between 9 PM and 2 AM. 
  • By 3 AM Monday, we expect much of the southern I-95 corridor region will have warmed enough to see plain rain, with that continuing until noon. 
  • Monday afternoon, the cold front plows through and temperatures drop rapidly Some flakes could fly in a quick burst Monday mid afternoon., which might be an early treat for the Spring-a-lings, but Winter warriors will be pounding their fist in defiance.
BUST SCENARIOS – There is still some uncertainty with this system, as with every large scale weather system that covers thousands of square mile. If we pretended there wasn’t uncertainty with this, we would be lying. Here is what could go wrong with the forecast: 
  • "Circle of Ice" (25%): If we get a slightly southerly track of the system, and a fresh feed of cold air on subfreezing ground temperatures, we could have a snowy and icy travel disaster Monday morning. Remember Sunday morning the 18th? Add in an inch or two of snow, and travel could become very hazardous.  
  • "Blame it on the Rain" (25%): Conversely, a slightly northerly track of the low from what we expect would surge most of the region well above freezing before the precipitation arrives, and keep us as all rain with little to no freezing precipitation anywhere in Maryland.
  • "Hakuna Matata" (0.01%): For those gaming to see "Scenario D" as in no storm at all or zero impact to the area, it is highly improbable areas with at least a winter weather advisory will escape effects from this system.
IS THAT IT? Do we just say goodbye to winter now? Hardly our fellow fractual friends! The snowiest month of the year starts tomorrow. Need we go on and on about how many of the most notable and memorable snowstorms occurred in February? If you need a trip down a powder-filled memory lane, be sure to revisit Forecaster Dakota's famous on site video in the raging blizzard from our February 2010 days of lore. Yes that was 5 years ago. No, you are not getting older, just better! 

But, will there be another storm? 

Like Captain Picard said in that famous scene of Star Trek: First Contact, "Plenty of letters left in the Alphabet."

(Forecasters Mike Natoli, Connor M., Jason M., Troy A., Jolene W., Tyler R., Mintong N., Advisors Keith K,, R. Foot, Pete W.)


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