Ready for the Wrap-Around?
8:25 PM 1/26 - TEAM STATEMENT & LOOKING AHEAD (Forecaster Mike Natoli & WSC Team)
As we warned last night, Part 1 of this event fizzled today with the clipper system moving through. Now, a strong cyclone is starting to develop offshore, and this will begin phase 2 of this extremely complex system.But before you ask, no, we will not get the big snow that parts of New England are projected to get. Beyond that, there is still some uncertainty because this storm is so complicated.
The graphic attached shows the total liquid precipitation from the late afternoon run of the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model - a very short range model sometimes useful for short term forecasting. This shows generally 0.1-0.3" of liquid this evening for the Mid-Atlantic region until early Tuesday morning.
EXPECTATIONS OVERNIGHT
- Phase 2 does not look impressive, but it could cause more of an impact because of the lack of sunlight allowing accumulation on roadways.
- That amount of liquid would translate to a total of about 1-3" of additional snow ending tonight using a 10:1 ratio.
- This would be associated with a band of snow on the back edge of the developing cyclone retrograding from NE to SW across central MD this evening.
- The biggest issue heading into the AM commute will be ICE! Moisture and standing water from snowmelt will refreeze overnight, especially on untreated and elevated surfaces.
BUST FOR PART 2 ALSO?
If this band does not form as indicated on this model (40% chance), most areas will be stuck with the coating-1" we got during the day today and that will be the end of it.
