It's all about the O

It's all about the O's...the NAOs

WHO REMEMBERS THE OPENING DAY SNOW OF 2003? THOUGH ONE MIGHT THINK AT FIRST 

THE MANAGER IS ARGUING WITH THE UMPIRE, POWDERHOUNDS KNOW WHAT HE WAS REALLY SAYING...

PHOTO CREDIT: BALTIMORE SUN'S RETROBALTIMORE ARTICLE.

• NEXT FIVE DAYS BRINGS CONTINUATION OF THE "STRIKEOUT" PATTERN WHERE ARCTIC AIR MASSES ARRIVE TOO SOON OR TOO LATE AND LACK SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO FUEL EAST COAST STORMS. 

• TELECONNECTIONS INCLUDING NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION, PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICAN INDEX AND OTHERS "OUT OF SYNC" AS PINEAPPLE EXPRESS INTRODUCES NUMEROUS MOISTURE PULSES TO WEST COAST

• AS READERS HAVE POINTED OUT, MODEL INDICATIONS SUGGEST AN UNFAVORABLE SETUP FOR THE NAO WHILE THE PNA REMAINS MODERATELY POSITIVE AFTER MID-FEBRUARY.

9:30 AM EST 2/7 - It's tough to be a Powderhound these days, especially in the surprisingly snow-starved Mid-Atlantic. But in contrast to this point in February 2014, alternating bouts of record-breaking cold, surprise ice storms and notable snow events had some crying uncle before the real action from mid-February to late-March even arrived. This year's back-and-forth makes one wonder if perhaps Snow Miser and Heat Miser decided it is more fun to watching hapless snow fans squirm with endless uncertainty, than to bring what we know you really want. Just. One. Good. Storm.

By February 10, the pattern had begun churning toward what became a six-week grand slam of several significant storms. Starting with the 2/13-14 event that delivered 11.5" to Baltimore-Washington Airport in the biggest "pow-wow" since February 2010, each time indications seemed to point away from storms, the setup returned  with a vengeance (or a delight). (Left:  sight you seldom see: School buses plastered in snow. Photo credit: Baltimore Sun, February 2010 )

The result was a "March repeat" of the January 2014 cold outbreak that smashed low temperature records, and then produces two more significant snow events ( St. Patrick's Day and March 24-25) at a time when many baseball fans had long since checked out of winter. The icing (or grease) on the cake was a surprise Tax Day Snow on April 15, 2014 where some saw higher accumulations than the Orioles' famous April 5, 2003 Opening Day Snow! 

Thus, as we head into what is usually one of the stormier parts of the winter, the real question is:

Perhaps Snowstradamus already reported to Spring Training and left us behind? The answer lies in the seemingly minute differences of a lesser-known feature called the "NAO" and why this indicator is evidence of where winter takes us next.

Part 2 In Progress, including:

• Why this time of year, the North Atlantic Oscillation can be a reliable resource to investigate how the pattern plays out;
• Is there ANY CHANCE LEFT of a big storm this season, or should  you just check out??

• AND, for those ready to make the Spring-a-Ling jump, early details on our NEW "Opening Day Orange" Embroidered Pullover that is sure to surprise and delight your fellow Camden Yards friends all season long. (To gauge interest in this special offer, we are accepting no obligation pre-orders in a simple email to orders@footsforecast.org)