Foot's Forecast | Weather Intelligence

IS THIS A COUP, A BUST OR SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN ?

LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER AND THE FORECAST ARE ONCE AGAIN, MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE OF EACH OTHER. This storm has confounded most meteorologists from the get go, it's trends have eluded detection by the computer models, it has successfully avoided being correctly forecasted by even the world's best weather service, Accuweather, who have had to revise their snowfall projections for this event at least 3 times now. With the NWS yanking Winter Storm Warnings, something that is embarrassing to do, I think we're all ready to throw in the towel and as Andy said, "Write this winter off altogether."

Radars indicate the storm has split into two parts. The bulk of frozen precip has progressed through PA, going into New York and New England later tonight. To the south of Maryland is a large area of rain. Both of these precip swaths are heading mostly east. In between them is this large twilight zone encompassing most of Maryland. The infamous, much scowled-upon "dry slot" has found a home. Perhaps the moisture got forced out trying to get over the mountains, and downsloping on the east side in central Maryland dried the air further. With dewpoints already 20 degrees or so away from temps, it is highly unlikely that anyone in Maryland will get much of anything, so those of you near Baltimore, forget the "1-3 inches of wet snow" idea on TWC. This will be a bust for Maryland, a coup for the GFS, and a touchdown for New England. Hmmm, that sounds familiar.

I'M MORE CONFUSED THAN DISAPPOINTED...THIS IS SUCH A BIZARRE STORM

Three items I indicated earlier made me think this was going to turn out weird.

First item is the NAO continuing it's strong negative trend Unusual for a storm to just totally go against the grain and head into northern New England on a neg NAO signal. The Jan 22 storm went north because NAO was beginning a slow trend back to neutral, allowing more northerly track with time. This is totally opposite of that situation, and yet it continues to head north.

Second item are the talk of a secondary Low. While I was expecting this, it now seems unlikely that will even happen. Seems to me the overall system is moving too quickly to the east, and there is too much west to east zonal flow for a secondary to develop anywhere.

Third item is that current observations show the Canadian high is now parked in the classic spot for a good Nor'easter...just over upstate New York. It is a secondary piece of the main High, but with a 1 millibar difference (1032 v. 1033) I'd say that's not really much. Another high off the DelMarVa would argue AGAINST coastal redevelopment in that same area, thus the further south idea for the secondary. Unless we are going to violate all laws of physics and have two different parcels of air occupying the same exact place at the same time. Isn't that the Heisenberg Uncertaintly Principle?

It would now seem that High is what the storm will tap for a good snow in central New York, Massachusetts and into Boston. I am going to revise/cancel some of my snowfall totals, as I doubt we will be seeing anything near what I advertised for certain areas, while others are probably going to be right on target.

CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS

Maryland/West Virginia: All forecasted amounts have been cancelled. Sleet indicates there will be virtually no snow at all, or any that does will be less than 1 inch. Storm Grade: E

Pennsylvania: Amounts for York lowered to 1 inches, Paoli 3 inches, Philadelphia 3 inches. Other amounts stay as forecasted.

New York: 4 inches in Central Park, up from 2 inches before. Binghampton: 4 inches

Massachusetts: All previous amounts remain. No changes will be made.

I may add a few new cities for fun given the new storm dynamics.

WHAT'S THIS ABOUT ANOTHER STORM LATER THIS WEEK ?

As if you really want to hear about "another possible storm." It reminds me of the final scene in "Hunt for Red October" when the Russian Ambassador speaks privately with the U.S. National Security Advisor about the loss of a second sub, and the advisor says, "General.... you've lost ANOTHER submarine?"