"LOOKS LIKE WE MADE IT..."
- Barry Manilow, from the album Ultimate Mantilow
WELL, LOOKEY WHAT WE HAVE HERE THIS SUNDAY MORNING...A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM WASHINGTON TO BOSTON AND THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MARYLAND, PENNSYLVANIA, NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. NOW HOW DID THAT HAPPEN? What did I tell you? Did we all not say in the comments on Saturday that the drift east would eventually result in NWS having to admit that the snowier solution was staring them in the face? Did we not say that given all the computer models (except for one) trending off shore and farther east, that it would be impossible to ignore the fact that the bullseye was going to target I-95?
Don't you feel a bit of personal vindication at believing all along that the atmosphere would play out the way YOU envisioned, and not the way that the fancy computer models or the more simpler fruit cup forecast had. Mark my words... all the forecasters are going to change their tune today, from Accuweather to WeatherMatrix to WxRisk to anyone else I don't know of. In fairness to the business, Mr. Cosgrove of WeatherAmerica had this one pegged pretty well before Accuweather or NWS, in the sense that he was willing to admit what no one else had the guts to say... a potential blizzard for the east coast major cities. So here's the super early Sunday morning rough guide.
SNOWFALL : This will be a heavy wet snow for all locations, so downed power lines and outages are likely.
NORTH CAROLINA...4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE RESEARCH TRIANGLE, 10 INCHES OR MORE IN MOUNTAINS.
VIRGINIA...AROUND 10 INCHES IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN VA, 2-4 INCHES AROUND RICHMOND, 1-3 ALONG TIDEWATER AREA AS STORM MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTH.
MARYLAND...5 TO 10 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW LIKELY THROUGHOUT CENTRAL MD. 10 - 15 INCHES IN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND, VIRGINIA, WEST VIRGINIA, NC.
PENNSYLVANIA... 5-10 INCHES FROM PHILADELPHIA N AND W INTO THE SUBURBS. 4-8 INCHES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PA, HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE SW PA MOUNTAINS. 10-15 INCHES IN EAST CENTRAL PA INTO SE NEW YORK STATE.
NEW YORK CITY...3 TO 5 INCHES. INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND 12 INCHES OR MORE
BOSTON AND SURROUNDING AREAS...6 TO 12 INCHES AND MUCH MORE POSSIBLE.
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND / DOWNEAST MAINE MAY RECEIVE UP TO 2 FEET.
These are preliminary numbers which I will refine tonight with actual storm grade amounts based on the QPF and snow ratios, which are expected to be low, perhaps around 8:1 or even 6:1 in the big cities.
SCHOOL: FUGGETABOUTIT. All Central/Northern Maryland Schools, All Central Western/Northern Virginia Schools, All Central/Southeast/East Central Pennsylvania Schools.....CLOSED AT LEAST MONDAY, AND VERY POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY...2 HOUR DELAY.
AND NOW... FAMOUS LAST WORDS
"SORRY SNOW FANS IN THE I-95 CITIES of the NE.... NEXT EVENT WILL BE SNOW to RAIN ON THE COAST-- SNOW INLAND & OVER APPALACHIAN MTS" - from DT on Weather Risk
"NO BIG SNOWSTORM FOR THE MAJOR CITIES..." Henry Margusity, Accuweather (paraphrasing the intent of his forecast... such as 1 to 3 inches for Baltimore, then over to rain)
WE SHALL SEE, WE SHALL SEE INDEED. With my more detailed update later today, I will post an analysis of the two opposing scenario...how the forecast could bust AND how it could become a historical event.
BOSTON AND SURROUNDING AREAS...6 TO 12 INCHES AND MUCH MORE POSSIBLE.
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND / DOWNEAST MAINE MAY RECEIVE UP TO 2 FEET.
These are preliminary numbers which I will refine tonight with actual storm grade amounts based on the QPF and snow ratios, which are expected to be low, perhaps around 8:1 or even 6:1 in the big cities.
SCHOOL: FUGGETABOUTIT. All Central/Northern Maryland Schools, All Central Western/Northern Virginia Schools, All Central/Southeast/East Central Pennsylvania Schools.....CLOSED AT LEAST MONDAY, AND VERY POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY...2 HOUR DELAY.
AND NOW... FAMOUS LAST WORDS
"SORRY SNOW FANS IN THE I-95 CITIES of the NE.... NEXT EVENT WILL BE SNOW to RAIN ON THE COAST-- SNOW INLAND & OVER APPALACHIAN MTS" - from DT on Weather Risk
"NO BIG SNOWSTORM FOR THE MAJOR CITIES..." Henry Margusity, Accuweather (paraphrasing the intent of his forecast... such as 1 to 3 inches for Baltimore, then over to rain)
WE SHALL SEE, WE SHALL SEE INDEED. With my more detailed update later today, I will post an analysis of the two opposing scenario...how the forecast could bust AND how it could become a historical event.
WHAT YOU SEE DEPENDS
ON HOW YOU PERCEIVE IT
Yes I know the headline above says "Sunday" I am trying to fix that as the problem has been whenever a new post comes on for a current day, comments from that day are deleted. Until that is corrected, the posts will be a day ahead. But consider it a glimpse into the future, you'll know what's going to happen with the weather a full day before anyone else.
For a Saturday morning, I thought you would enjoy a few illusions as we head into this next Winter Storm situation. I think the computer models, and the forecasters who interpret them, are having some illusions of their own. I will explain in Analysis Part 2 of the storm ahead. from 10:15 AM until about 5:00 PM, I will be out with family, so continue to post your questions and comments, but don't expect a reply until around dinner time. But first...
JUST THE WEATHER FOR THIS WEEK
graphics from Accuweather.com
SUNDAY: Very cold to start throughout the Northeast with morning lows in the 20's from Baltimore on south, in the upper teens around Philly, and mid to lower teens into single digits from NYC north. Clouds on the increase later in the day as storms approach from the west and south. Temps warming into the mid 30's, except for DC, which will creep towards 40.
MONDAY: (I-95 CORRIDOR ONLY) Overnight Sunday is when the problems begin. Precip will move in from southwest to northeast, starting in all locations as snow, sleet and freezing rain. In the southern cities of the I-95 corridor (Richmond, DC, Baltimore) a changeover to rain may not occur until the latter half of the rush hour, so expect very slippery and treacherous conditions, as road surfaces may be at or just below freezing. Philly north to NYC and interior sections of eastern PA and southeast NY will be spared the AM rush hour madness, but the real McKoy is coming later in the day.
Frozen precip SHOULD go over to all rain no later than noon. Rain becomes heavy in the major cities and inland, but near and west of I-81, precip will remain all snow. That is a different arrangement I will discuss in more detail in the next section. The drive home Monday should be free of frozen precip, but windy conditions will make for difficult driving. As the storm passes to the north, colder air rushes back in behind, turning any leftover rain to snow overnight into Tuesday. K2 goes on to hammer Pennsylvania, New York and New England.
TUESDAY: Windy and much colder with scattered snow showers along I-95, accumulating up to 3 inches. Interior PA, NY and New England will be hammered with at least 6-12" of snow and probably much more. At present I believe areas north and west of I-95 and I-90 will see the heaviest snow, except for Boston, which is likely to be just inside the heavy snow bands.
Overnight into Wednesday, stiff northwest winds will freeze over any daytime slush, making for another round of icy conditions.
WEDNESDAY: Continued windy and much colder with scattered flurries and snow showers continuing as K2 keeps hammering Northern New England and slowly lifts north into Canadian maritimes.
THURSDAY: Northwest flow continues with cloudy and cold conditions. Temperatures not rising above 40 from DC north.
FRIDAY: Some moderation in temperatures is likely, but still several degrees below normal. Upper air flow becomes more west-east, allowing Pacific air to inflitrate the Northeast.
K2 ANALYSIS PART 2....MONDAY
WHAT WE KNOW
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS: Computer models are all still in great disagreement over evolution of the Monday situation, but a few things are becoming clear. While there is high pressure nearby, it does not appear to be in the classic location for a big time major city snowstorm. That having been said, there is also the concern that the high pressure squeeze between the Great Lakes system and the Coastal system does a dipsy-doodle... instead of being pinched out to the west... it drops east in front of the approaching coastal Low. This strongly enhances the pressure gradient, which in turn could draw cold air into the storm, deepening it faster farther south (a solution the European model has alluded to). Hence the changeover to rain in the big cities is short-lived, or never happens at all. Here's a key sign of uncertainty.. when the Weather Channel puts up a graphic that says "Snow MAY change to rain in the major cities" That gives us reason to be concerned that something wicked this way comes.
DRIFTING EAST: All major models continue to DRIFT EAST with the storm's track. NWS has mostly discounted the NAM model with it's track up the western Appalachians. The other issue is the influence of the Great Lakes system, which if it were not there, would spell a massive snowstorm with no doubt. But that system complicates things. The current thinking which is keeping NWS offices away from raising the storm flag for the Northeast cities is... the upper level energy from this system arrives TOO LATE in the game to energize it for a major east coast snowstorm. Sounds like famous last words, does it not? Remember the Jan 22 storm, remember how Paul Kocin on the Weather Channel said that same scenario I just described was the reason the storm would not blow into a big coastal storm but a general 4-8" snowfall? Then just hours later he had to totally reverse course and say that the "unlikely" scenario was going to come true after all.
HISTORY REPEATING? We know this winter that in complex situations, the US models fairly much worse than the foreign models. Given the continued eastward drift of the models, is this a sign that a major coup is once again on the table for the Euro? The only difference this time appears to be the lack of the classic strong high in upstate NY. The NAM has been able to nail a few storms this year, but it is odd that is the only model acting as the outlier, with the GFS, European, UKMET and other programs all calling for a double-barrel coastal low. I think it is likely you will see the NAM suddenly shift east in line with the other computers, and then forecasters will come out guns blazing with their definitive calls.
WHAT WE DON'T KNOW
ACCUMULATIONS: While not know for sure at this point, I can make some general statements for interior PA, NY and central/northern New England. These are preliminary calls and will be adjusted at least twice, once later tonight, again Sunday morning, and then the final numbers Sunday night. 12 inches of snow or more is very likely from anywhere west of I-81, as well as north and west of I-90. This would include our readers in Altoona, State College, Binghampton, Woburn, Boston. This is likely to be a heavy, wet snow, hard to shovel... so make plans to do several rounds of shoveling to keep you out of the chiropractor's office.
Along the coast, the current thinking is a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain changing over to rain but accumulating possibly 1-2 inches before the changeover.
SCHOOL: DC, Northern Virginia, West Virginia and Baltimore area schools will have the toughest time figuring out how to call this one. Onset of precip will begin in the early morning hours of Monday, and with a cold ground and roads at or below freezing, snow, sleet and freezing rain is very likely to cause delays with the morning rush. It would seem prudent to start with a 2-hour delay, depending on temperatures. As always the timing is critical. A later start to the precip would seem to make for schools closed, except that it could change to rain sooner due to daytime heating from sun.
For those wishing for a 5 day weekend, an earlier start time would be ideal because the precip can take advantage of overnight cooling, thus hamper the changeover to rain until it is clear than a 2-hour delay would not be effective. If a delay is called at 5:30, the decision to change it over to closed has to be made really no later than 7:00 AM, because by then buses are rolling to pickup high school students. If we still observe sleet and freezing rain by that time, schools will have to close even though most precip SHOULD go over to rain by 10 AM or so. Tuesday? That is still too much up in the air as it depends on how much cold air gets in behind the storm to refreeze any standing water overnight, certainly possible but not a lock yet.
STRENGTH OF THE COLD: The final factor to impact the outcome of this entire situation will be the strength of the cold in the East on Sunday and Monday. While Saturday should be cool, Sunday is supposed to be colder due to radiational cooling and snowpack enhancing the cold. If the cold air gets trapped underneath advancing clouds on Sunday night, big cities would be looking at more of an icing event than snow. If overnight lows Saturday are not as cold, then the warmth on Sunday will get trapped under those same clouds, which prevent overnight temps into Monday from dropping as much. Thus a faster changeover to rain, or perhaps like last Sunday, we (DC Baltimore) start as mostly light sleet and then go over to rain.
THE NEXT UPDATE SOMETIME AFTER DINNER SATURDAY, NOT BEFORE 5:00 pm. The tell-tale sign to watch for between now and then is what the North American Mesoscale (NAM) decides to do. If it jumps to the coast, then look for a snowier solution to creep into your local forecasts. Remember I will be out from 10:15 AM to 5:00 PM, so I won't be able to respond to your comments during that time.