SUNSHINE AND SNOWFLAKES
Friday afternoon 2/25 update: Reveling in a 4, or 5, or 6 day weekend
and now, the moment you've been waiting for....
K2...AS BIG AS THE MOUNTAIN IS TALL
This is an actual picture of the famed K2 mountain in Pakistan, the SECOND tallest mountain in the world. Will this upcoming series of storms translate into the second largest snowfall ever? Hard to tell, but not impossible. What we do know is that a very significant and possibly historic situation will be setting up over the eastern third of the country starting Sunday night and lasting into....a while, perhaps a week. A more detailed analysis is coming over the next 24 hours, but here is the rough guide for now:
1. A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT MOST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WITH HEAVY SNOW, HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING from Sunday night to Tuesday.
2. NAO LOST IN A BLACK HOLE MEANS SOUTHEAST REORGANIZATION OF THE POLAR VORTEX over Ohio and Pennsylvania for the period Tuesday-Friday. This will result in intensely cold air of 10-20 degrees below normal for most of the Northeast from South Carolina up the coast.
3. BIG KAHUNA 3 MIGHT BE THE ULTIMATE GRAND FINALE OF THE WINTER WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL for the major east coast cities from Richmond, VA to Portland, ME in the Friday-Monday period of late next week.
K2 ANALYSIS PART 1...SUNDAY NIGHT
I will post a series of maps to show the differences between the major models battling it out for supremacy over the life cycle of this storm. My comparison is between NOAA's GFS and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts.. the ECMWF or the European. Please feel free to post your questions and reactions to this analysis. There will be two more parts in the next 12 hours... Part 2 is the Monday analysis, Part 3 is the Tuesday analysis.
LIKELY TO HAPPEN
- A large storm will move up and/or along the Eastern Seaboard from the Gulf Coast. Precipitation is likely to start in areas from North Carolina on northward as snow on Sunday night or Monday morning.
- Every meteorologist on the East Coast, real or imagined, will find it hard to pick one solution or the other given the implications of a forecast for heavy rain that turns out as snow, or vice versa. Weather outlets will hedge and alter their forecast and timing of the storm's onset until the moment it begins.
- A second system moving in from the Great Lakes will meet up with the primary Gulf Low, and energize it significantly, which is when the snowstorm/blizzard aspect of the event will get underway. Snowfall in the area where that occurs will likely be in excess of 12 inches and some locations will exceed 2 feet.
NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN
- Predictions for 1-2 feet of snow in the major I-95 cities are not likely to be issued until the event is underway, such as was the case with the February 2003 Blizzard. I am not saying this much snow is going to fall, I am saying that enough moisture will be present in the atmosphere, that given the right conditions and timing, this much snow is THEORETICAL in the major cities.
- Computer models all resolving on one clear-cut solution early on, such as 24 hours before the event. Already major differences exists as depicted in the graphics above, with the GFS having mostly a rainstorm along I-95 and heavy snow in the interior, whereas the European would be a repeat of the January 1996 or 2005 storm.
- School closing on Monday, as the forecast for that day will vary wildly from one agency to another, making the public very uneasy and confused about the evolution of the storm in general.
BEFORE I POST THE NEXT UPDATE, CAN YOU PICK OUT THE SUBTLE OR GLARING DIFFERENCES IN THE GRAPHICS ABOVE? What is your reaction to this given the track record of the GFS and European on storms this winter? I look forward to your responses as we inject a little politics into the forecast.