WAITING FOR THE SNOW TO STOP IN NEW ENGLAND
BEFORE POSTING A GRADE ON FORECAST AMOUNTS
Well, you win some, you lose some....and others just completely explode in your face. I never promised you a rose garden, but I did promise I would pay the piper if the time came. There are a few simple reasons why the forecast for Big KaNOna turned out so much wetter for almost everyone who was originally pegged to have a lot of snow. I will go into a little more detail later today for each of these items, because it is very good reference material to have in forecasting future storms. We haven't see a situation quite like this for some time...a storm that resembles more of a March or early April pattern then early February. This has me concerned that the volatility of the atmosphere has the calendar reversed once again, which means the worst of winter is yet to come, as it was in the case of the 1992-93 Winter.
But that is a topic for another day.
REASONS THE FORECAST BUSTED
1. The Regional Climate Indices were not aligned the way we like to see them for a big Nor'easter. The NAO was trended much too positive, the PNA (Pacific North American Index) was still mostly negative, the AO (Arctic Oscillation) was also beginning to trend positive. My mistake was that I felt these were temporary trends that would quickly reverse, and the computer models would pick up on the reversal too late. More about this later, as it becomes the key issue in forecasting the next storm, because I'll show you later what setup we need for the three indices to get any big winter storm on the East Coast. I'll also answer the question as to why the indices went this way, in stark contrast to their NOAA forecasted trends.
2. Although big snowstorms can follow periods of abnormal warmth (early March 1993 was in the 50's preceding the 'Storm of the Century'), the difference this time is that the SE Canada High just did not get into the act as much as was expected. So what we are seeing is in fact what the Baltimore NWS correctly predicted, the cold air will arrive AFTER most of the precip has exited the area. Meaning the big snow will be confined to northern New York, northern Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine. It will be a heavy wet gloppy snow for them too, difficult to ski in except for powder paradises like Jay Peak, Sunday River and Sugarloaf.
3. Overconfidence? For those who want to get a piece of me, I'll throw that olive branch out there for rabid powderhound to rip apart and snarl over. If I was always right, you'd start using religious terms like "prophet" and that's scary and unscientific anyway. The most recent prophets we have documentation on are Jesus and John the Baptist, and I'm no match for their predictions.
AFTER A STORM WRAPUP AND GRADED TOTALS, except a mild and tranquil weekend. I am going to Whitetail Ski Resort in Southcentral PA, so no post on Saturday and perhaps one on Sunday if I've recovered from the trip. Any word on the next storm will have to wait until at least Wednesday. So I'll just let the anticipation build...in silence.
ABOUT THE COMMENTS
If you are disappointed the comments feature has been disabled for now, I understand your feelings and am sorry. I also apologize to the many supportive readers who have enjoyed the site and the fun discussions we have had recently. There were a couple storm totals I overlooked, including Belair MD, Loudon County VA, Northern Bucks County PA. You will not be forgotten next time! These past few weeks, it has been fun to come home, play with my toddler daughter, and then we sit together and read some of the comments to Mommy. We enjoyed the fun of it, which was the whole idea in the first place. I did not yank the comments because my forecast was failing, or because people disagreed with me. I welcome skepticism, it is part of the scientific process.
However, there is a line of respect for others that I believe we should not cross in a public forum as a manner of decorum considering who may end up reading what is written. I personally do not care what other rules exist about any other blogs anywhere else in the internet. It is the same situation with my students and the restroom. They tell me... "but the lav is right outside your door, can't I just go real quick?" I tell them... "No. If you leave the room, you are to have a pass." But Mr. or Mrs. So and So lets us." I AM NOT THEM. Someone's elses classroom rules or lack thereof, do not apply in my classroom. The expectations are communicated in a respectful way, without disrespecting the student in front of others.
By the same consideration, this website is designed to offer a fun, interactive and respectful forum for those who enjoy weather and storms, or participating in the discussions about them in a respectful manner. Healthy skepticism about how the forecast is made or the rationale behind it is welcome, and encouraged. Disrespectful criticism without any constructive basis is not welcome, and will be deleted accordingly. As the webmaster, I reserve that right as any newspaper editor would in choosing to edit a letter for decency or content.
Several years ago, I witnessed the rise and fall of a very robust and entertaining email list site, where I was able to participate with many of my friends through the Northeast region in a fascinating and on-going discussion about a virtual universe of topics. Unfortunately a few select people took that service hostage, and the ensuing fallout caused it to be cancelled. The whole situation rubbed a number of people the wrong way, and some of the consequences included a few of my friends being forced out of the community of volunteers of which I was a part. What started as an interesting and high quality discussion descended into chaos which ruined friendships and reputations. I will not let that occur with this site on my watch.
When the comments feature returns sometime later, it will be accompanied by a set of clear and reasonable expectations for what constitutes respectful discourse within this free electronic exchange of ideas. The consequence for failing to meet those expectations will be denial of participation. There may also be a log in feature which requires the creation of an account with blogger.com but is not invasive to your privacy. I believe our founding fathers would have intended this version of democracy we have created to allow both criticism and praise, whether it be about government or the weather. But I also believe they would have expected us to go about it in a respectful manner.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom, must undergo the fatigues of supporting it." - Thomas Paine. September 11, 1777