PREPARE FOR THE BIG KA..NO..NA
Thank you to the many readers who have commented today, for or against, in regards to the upcoming storm or lack thereof. The comments feature has been given a cooling off period and will return with time. If you are new to this site and have no idea what this is about, that is a good thing. Storm grade totals for specific areas have been posted as of 9:00 PM. I will do a brief overview based on current observations around 6:00 AM Thursday.
Is there any chance this storm could change suddenly and catch everyone off guard? Absolutely, given the law of unintended consequences and surprise snowstorms this winter. Our "storm" has not even begun to exist yet, so things could still change in your favor. Even so, only the Good Lord above knows exactly was is going to happen for sure. But it appears increasingly clear this will not qualify as a Big Kahuna for the areas which had been expecting one. A strongly positive NAO is something I should have taken more seriously once the trend became more clear, and that is discussed below.
WHAT ABOUT SCHOOL?
DC and Northern Virginia schools: You’ll be sitting in class looking at scattered snow showers falling outside by lunchtime, that’s about it.
Baltimore Metro Schools: I will bow to the laws of physics in that temperatures are not likely to fall enough for any snow to disrupt travel. I'll probably have to wear my 5-minute grocery bag for my students tomorrow. Tell me what other forecaster on the planet wears a bag in public when their predictions fail? Name one who owns up to their mistakes. Come on.. who is it?
Philadelphia area schools: You might be luckier (or unluckier) as everyone will be able to get in on time safely, but face a slippery, slushy trip home.
Suburban Philadelphia area small businesses located on Darby Road: There is still a “ONE QUARTER INCH SNOW WARNING" for your area by noontime.
Interior east central PA schools: Onset of the storm may be late enough that you are unfortunately driving home in wet slushy snow, but not from an early dismissal.
Bucks County, PA: A delay is likely Friday morning especially with 3-6 inches or more.
New York City Schools: Proximity to the coast and relative surface warmth due to urban heat island effect will limit accumulations in the city until later in the day, and eliminate any chance for school to be disrupted.
Most Massachusetts schools: North of the Mass Pike, closings are likely. South and east of the pike, the weeping is understandably so loud that school should be called off just to allow disappointed powderhounds the chance to emotionally recover from this loss.
FINAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (AS OF 8pm Wednesday)
The reason these amounts have changed drastically is due to a strongly positive NAO, which has refused to give any ground. I remind you that I post preliminary estimates until 24 hours before the storm, then the final amount which is a single number that I will not change. I am not playing the "but I said it might not happen game" to make myself look right no matter what happens. My original estimates were high because at the time, it did not seem at all probable the NAO would take such a giant leap into the stratosphere. It has, and here we are.
I originally felt the NAO would retreat back to neutral, which is part of why I was holding onto my earlier forecasts, all well within the realm of possibility given the overall trend of most computer models. However, in the past 24 hours, the models have initialized in their data stream the fact that the NAO is now 2.5 deviations above baseline, which this time of the year is a huge anomaly. Thus computer models sensed this undeniable fact, and have continued to trend the storm farther north with time. It is possible that the final amounts will end up being even less than what the NWS was expecting, prompting another round of Winter Storm Warning cancellations, which is something they RARELY ever do.
I know all your hopes and dreams of a big snowstorm have leapt almost to the Canadian border, since the pos NAO has relieved the recent logjam in the Atlantic and allowed the Ocean storm from 10 days ago to finally get out of the way. After the storm passes, I will post a more throughout explanation of why the forecast did not turn out as we expected. How you decide to take it is up to you. I remind you that no one else will offer an explanation or hang themselves out to twist in the wind, but in this discourse, I have always said I would be honest tell you why if it did not pan out.
Northern Virginia: A coating to .5 inch
Baltimore Metro to the PA line: Generally 1-3" Dundalk: 1.5" Towson 2" Parkton 2.5"
Martinsburg, WV: 2"
South Central PA: York 2" Southeastern PA: Paoli 1.5" PHL airport 1"
NE PA: Scranton 2" Binghampton: 3" total Boston Metro: 3" Woburn: 7"
Northern New England (Eastern Upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, downeast Maine): 12 – 18" and locally up to 24" with near-blizzard like conditions due to strong east and northeast winds. Portland: 14"
IS THERE ANOTHER STORM IN THE NEAR FUTURE?
Many probably think that this is it... the most depressing end to an overall let down winter. Up to this point, I would have to agree with you. Except for the blockbuster storm of January 22, it has been a mostly miss winter for just about the entire Northeast U.S from West Virginia north and east to Maine. Given this most recent salt-in-the-wound-bad-taste-in-the-mouth experience, you probably don't want to hear any more promises of big storms only to see them wheeze away and be dead on arrival.
So guess what? I'm going to let the natural course of events dictate what you see on this site. I am doing background research on a dandy of a pattern coming up in the next 3-4 weeks, but given recent events, 90% of readers won't buy it anyway. So why spent hours upon hours of my own personal time trying to convince 90% of the people that 90% of their snow will be coming between February 17 and March 10? I'm not going to. When I think I have a solid forecast in the bag that is not going to disappoint even the most hungry powderhound, then I will post it. But don't expect it anytime earlier than 5 or so days from now. I am not going to put so much time and energy into a forecast for snow from 10 days out, and then be ripped to shreds when it does indeed snow something on the date I predicted. Granted, no where near what you or I wanted, but by 8PM Thursday, it will have snowed something where you live in the Northeast.
So guess what? I'm going to let the natural course of events dictate what you see on this site. I am doing background research on a dandy of a pattern coming up in the next 3-4 weeks, but given recent events, 90% of readers won't buy it anyway. So why spent hours upon hours of my own personal time trying to convince 90% of the people that 90% of their snow will be coming between February 17 and March 10? I'm not going to. When I think I have a solid forecast in the bag that is not going to disappoint even the most hungry powderhound, then I will post it. But don't expect it anytime earlier than 5 or so days from now. I am not going to put so much time and energy into a forecast for snow from 10 days out, and then be ripped to shreds when it does indeed snow something on the date I predicted. Granted, no where near what you or I wanted, but by 8PM Thursday, it will have snowed something where you live in the Northeast.
POST SCHEDULE THE NEXT 5 DAYS
Thursday night: Big KaNOna # 1 wrapup and overall storm grade.
Sunday afternoon: Preview of the week ahead
Thursday night: Big KaNOna # 1 wrapup and overall storm grade.
Sunday afternoon: Preview of the week ahead
ABOUT THE COMMENTS
If you are disappointed the comments feature has been disabled for now, I understand your feelings and am sorry. I too look forward each day to coming home, playing with my toddler daughter, and reading the comments to my wife. We enjoyed the fun of it, which was the whole idea. I did not yank the comments because my forecast was failing. I look at all the data, I know it will turn out an E or worse, duh! But in the free exchange of ideas under the First Amendment, things can be said which are not to the pleasing of everyone, that is the democratic system.
However, there is a line of respect for others that I believe we should not cross in a public forum as a manner of decorum considering who may end up reading what is written. I personally do not care what other rules exist about any other blogs anywhere else in the internet. It is the same situation with my students and the restroom. They tell me... "but the lav is right outside your door, can't I just go real quick?" I tell them... "No. If you leave the room, you are to have a pass." But Mr. or Mrs. So and So lets us." I AM NOT THEM. Someone's elses classroom rules or lack thereof, do not apply in my classroom. The expectations are communicated in a respectful way, without disrespecting the student in front of others.
By the same consideration, this website is designed to offer a fun, interactive and respectful forum for those who enjoy weather and storms, or participating in the discussions about them in a respectful manner. Healthy skepticism about how the forecast is made or the rationale behind it is welcome. Disrespectful criticism without any constructive basis is not welcome, and will be deleted accordingly. As the webmaster, I reserve that right as any newspaper editor would in choosing to edit a letter for decency or content.
However, there is a line of respect for others that I believe we should not cross in a public forum as a manner of decorum considering who may end up reading what is written. I personally do not care what other rules exist about any other blogs anywhere else in the internet. It is the same situation with my students and the restroom. They tell me... "but the lav is right outside your door, can't I just go real quick?" I tell them... "No. If you leave the room, you are to have a pass." But Mr. or Mrs. So and So lets us." I AM NOT THEM. Someone's elses classroom rules or lack thereof, do not apply in my classroom. The expectations are communicated in a respectful way, without disrespecting the student in front of others.
By the same consideration, this website is designed to offer a fun, interactive and respectful forum for those who enjoy weather and storms, or participating in the discussions about them in a respectful manner. Healthy skepticism about how the forecast is made or the rationale behind it is welcome. Disrespectful criticism without any constructive basis is not welcome, and will be deleted accordingly. As the webmaster, I reserve that right as any newspaper editor would in choosing to edit a letter for decency or content.
Several years ago, I witnessed the rise and fall of a very robust and entertaining email list site, where I was able to participate with many of my friends through the Northeast region in a fascinating and on-going discussion about a virtual universe of topics. Unfortunately a few select people took that service hostage, and the ensuing fallout caused it to be cancelled. The whole situation rubbed a number of people the wrong way, and some of the consequences included a few of my friends being forced out of the community of volunteers of which I was a part. What started as an interesting and high quality discussion descended into chaos which ruined friendships and reputations. I will not let that occur with this site on my watch. When the comments feature returns sometime later, it will be accompanied by a set of clear and reasonable expectations for what constitutes respectful discourse within this free electronic exchange of ideas. I believe our founding fathers would have intended this version of democracy we have created to allow both criticism and praise, whether it be about government or the weather. But I also believe they would have expected us to go about it in a respectful manner.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom, must undergo the fatigues of supporting it." - Thomas Paine. September 11, 1777