Congratulations to some of the Baltimore Metro region schools, who have finally earned their mini-snow day. I notice that as of 7:45 AM, Harford County schools turned a 2-hour delay into a CLOSING! I realize that many readers of this site do not live anywhere near the Baltimore region, but for desperate powderhounds everywhere, it is a sign to you that winter still has a few tricks up it's sleeves. For those who would ask, "you didn't predict this one!" I can say, "That's correct." Because I don't spend time trying to nail every flake that may fall, I am only after Big Kahuna fish, not goldfish. Though the little delays and closings are golden for a Friday.
NOW THE EARLY WORD FOR THE WEEKEND STORM
I have outlined in previous posts my analysis of this storm, which will be no Kahuna, but it sets the stage for bigger events next week and into March. The basic idea is that a negative to neutral NAO is starting to be sniffed out by the computer models, thus the track of the primary storm cutting to Erie on Sunday has trended farther south and east with time. The high pressure coming into the Northeast this weekend will recharge the cold air currently in place, and then be slow to leave as the warm air rides over this cold dome and the precip falls into it. The result will be widespread snow over the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night into Monday morning, but accumulations will overall be less than 6" in any one place, save for the mountains of West Virginia and Southwest PA.
SATURDAY: Cold and clear to start, increasing clouds late in the day. Temps holding in the 30's from Philly on south, in the upper 20's from NYC north to Boston.
SUNDAY: Clouds increase throughout the day from southwest to northeast, snow breaks out after nightfall in SW and Central PA, moving east. Snow reaches I-95 corridor after midnight. First graphic above is accumulation ideas for the period ending 7AM Monday.
MONDAY: With a secondary Low forming off the Del-Mar-Va coast by daybreak, snow is falling throughout the I-95 corridor, northern-central Virginia, WV panhandle into southeast PA. General 2-3" with local amounts up to 4" by noon, then a gradual changeover to light rain.
WHAT ABOUT NYC-BOSTON ON NORTH ? I have not forgotten about you, but am doing more analysis to see what the secondary Low will do. I see that most NWS offices are having a hard time justifying the GFS out to lunch forecast, and have been relying more on the UKMET and European models, as per guidance from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. The secondary may do a repeat of last week's storm in that it hugs the coast but not as much. The result is snow to start, then over to sleet-freezing rain, then back to snow as Low departs. Amounts will be held down due to that frozen precip mixing in, which is why I'm not going ballistic with it.
WHEN ARE THE COMMENTS COMING BACK ? I plan to return the comments feature this weekend, probably by Saturday so you can post your observations and reactions to the storm. Keep in mind that if you disagree with the forecast, which you have a right to do, it is expected that you will express your thoughts in a respectful manner as many other people read what you write. Skepticism is part of the scientific process and that is welcome in this forum. However, comments which are designed only as personal attacks without any constructive basis will be deleted, and the IP address will be blocked.