"And the hits just keep on comin'..."
- 1972 Album by the Monkees singer Michael Nesmith
Image source: NOAA Precipitation Projections for 7 PM Sunday 3/1
Image source: NOAA Precipitation Projections for 7 PM Sunday 3/1
9:10 AM 2/28 - Updated team statement in progress. Synopsis of forecast concerns:
- Significant cold surfaces in the Mid-Atlantic will be retained into Sunday as moisture overruns at upper levels. Precipitation will begin Sunday afternoon as mostly snow north of I-66, with sleet and freezing rain DC metro east.
- By evening, most precip will turn to freezing rain as upper and near surface temperatures warm to near 32 F -- continuing overnight into the Monday morning commute.
- We disagree with the low-hazard assessment of this event as currently portrayed by the Sterling VA NWS as of 9:15 AM 2/28. The lack of a posted Hazardous Weather Outlook conveys a false sense of security to the public that a slight amount of freezing rain would not pose a measureable risk of hazardous travel.
- The 0.005" of freezing rain which occurred on Sunday morning, January 21 is evidence enough that the next 24-36 hours present an increasing risk of impactful weather to the Mid-Atlantic, as is currently depicted by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
Image source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center US hazards outlook
3:30 AM 2/27 - Seasoned readers may remember the origins of that phrase from the 1970s, but for the rest of us it summarizes the current weather pattern -- and is a clue for what's directly ahead.
FRIDAY - We'll try again for a normal day, but many areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas stretching back to Texas are pulling out from under a thick layer of snow and ice. Icy patches on roadways are likely throughout these regions the next several days. Temps won't make it past 32 F for most in the north, while 40s and 50s return to the south.
THE WEEKEND - More Arctic air returns overnight into Saturday AM, with lows again back near 5-10 F. Even bright sunshine will not be any help as highs stay near 30 F north of Richmond VA.
Though Sunday should be dry with highs breaking 32 F, the headlines may be dominated by yet another coast to coast winter storm to approach by Tuesday.
NEXT WEEK? As our headline indicates, there is already growing concern for a potentially widespread and multi-day wintry precipitation event to affect a large area of the Eastern U.S. In fact, we were "taken aback" ourselves with the rather high precip probabilities posted in your NWS local forecasts. Why?
- By noting an already high 70% chance of precipitation that could be rain or snow SIX DAYS OUT is quite the red flag in winter weather forecasting. It's not a lock, but it is worth mentioning so you know we are watching the situation.
- Though we're also not "on board" with any specific calls at this time, we can say this: Global models and 6-10 day outlook maps at the Climate Prediction Center have been increasing the potential each day for a large scale event early to middle of next week.
It's much too early to pin down precip type and timing of course, so consider this just an early heads up before the weekend, and before the hits start a-comin' again.
-The FF Long Range Team