Southern Snow Surprise

Southern Snow Surprise...

3:15 AM 2/26 - PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING VIRGINIA, REACHING DC METRO, AND TO BALTIMORE METRO BY 5 AM, PA LINE BETWEEN 5-6 AM IF NOT SOONER.

• Snow will fall rapidly and accumulate quickly due to cold surfaces. Up to 1" an hour is possible between 6 and 8 AM from the I-66 corridor to the I-95 corridor, including northern and central Maryland. Accumulation is expected to reach southern PA counties.

1:10 PM EST 2/25 - The climbing and expanding NWS Warnings, Watches and Advisories associated with the southern winter storm has no doubt set many to wondering about this system:

• How much farther north might this storm track go?
• Is there any potential for this system or "over or under" perform, and leave (or take away) a bigger surprise than current;y expected? 

We will address these two issues in the team statement below. We are not expecting a major snowstorm for the central and northern Mid-Atlantic, as most of the action should stay "south of DC" and centered on the Richmond metro area to the eastern shore. However, the problematic timing of this next potential event presents concern for the AM commute.

SYNOPSIS - The widespread winter storm which has been impacting the Deep South with extensive snow and ice will generally be kept to the south of the central Maryland region. 

• However, we won't avoid seeing some snow from it. Tonight, Lows in the Mid-Atlantic will fall to the mid 20s overnight with increasing clouds ahead of the storm system passing by late. 
• Precipitation on the northern edge of the system may bring light accumulations early Thursday morning. Though the Baltimore metro region will be on the periphery of the significant snow, it is worth mentioning as this system could cause some travel problems in the AM hours. 
• A general rule with this event: The further south your location in the region, the more likely you are to see accumulating snow.

TIMING - Light snow in the metro area is expected by 3 AM Thursday, ending by 10 AM Thursday. 

ACCUMULATIONS - South of DC/Baltimore, we expect 1-2" of snow, with higher amounts near and east of the DC metro region. For Northern MD counties that border PA, snowfall will be lighter the farther your location is from the system. A dusting (or "Coating" up to 1" is possible.) 

HAZARDS - The timing (of course) during the AM rush will make for some difficult travel, especially south of the metros. Use caution on the roads if snow is falling, and give yourself a little extra time to get to work. Those north will have it a little easier, but if the storm trends just a little bit north, that could change. 

BUST POTENTIALS - What can go wrong with this storm? Unlike the last storm, the temperatures don't really matter much with this one. It's all about the track of the storm and extent of the precipitation field. 

• THE BIG KAHUNA (20%): The computer model guidance has been trending significantly further north with each run lately. If this continues and the storm ends up even further north of where we expect, central MD isn't just on the fringes anymore. The excess moisture easily overcomes the dry air in place. This scenario could bring easily a significant snow south of the metros and accumulating snow to the north. Travel would be heavily impacted Thursday morning in this scenario. 

• THE BUMMED BACHATA (15%): On the other hand, if the northerly trend in guidance abruptly reverses and the storm ends up south of expectations, northern MD ends up receiving no snow, while just a dusting reaching those south of the metros. This scenario would occur with a more southerly track of the low, or if the northern extent of the precipitation field doesn't reach as far as we expect. 

The situation with this storm could rapidly change (because it has been already), so stay with us for updates! We will keep you informed of the latest information.

(Map and Statement by Foreacaster Mike, Analysis and Forecasts by the Winter Stormcast Team