A Storm of the First Order
THE EMPEROR WOULD BE PROUD
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FROM LOUISIANA TO PENNSYLVANIA
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FROM LOUISIANA TO PENNSYLVANIA
- BLIZZARD WARNINGS FROM WASHINGTON TO NEW YORK
- UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS, SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT AM.
- WINDS OF 35 MPH+ FOR 12 HOURS OR MORE & THUNDERSNOW.
- DO NOT TRAVEL AFTER 7 PM IF POSSIBLE
TIMING & IMPACTS
- SNOWFALL & RATES. 2-3" an hour will be common from 11 PM Friday to 7 AM Saturday throughout the region from the middle and northern Eastern shore west to the DC/Baltimore region. If you anywhere between Richmond, VA and I-76 in PA, including the Eastern Shore of MD, 12-18" is possible on your doorstep by daybreak Saturday. Expect thundersnow tomorrow through Noon in areas bordering the Chesapeake Bay. Then the snow gets heavy. We are not making this up, honestly. See the impact timeline below.
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS with winds sustained at 35 mph+ for up to 12 hours in some locations. Do not go outside. Get all your outdoor prep done today, yes even after you get home following a full day of work. Tell the kids to hunker down with a Tolstoy novel or a 5000 piece puzzle, and a flashlight. They'll have a blast. We're not trying to be cavalier, we're trying to make a point: No one under this storm will be going anywhere for a couple days.
IMPACT TIMELINE
This is an example of advance reports available through our Insider Service.
This one was issued with our update last night at 7:15
QUESTIONS FOR YOU
- What is your plan if you lose power? You better talk about it. Remember the Derecho? Irene? Sandy? Let's be honest and face the possibility you might lose power for 3-5 days. For those who think you're being alarmist, send them to us and blame it on Foots. For calmer heads, an excellent Red Cross checklist for Power Outages (print it out).
- What is your plan for the children? In the Foot home, it was quite chaotic for the 2010 storms. Mrs. Foot ran the indoor program, Mr. Foot ran the outdoor recovery. You know how it was: Coffee, shoveling, eat. For several days. It was like a second full-time job. Another great Red Cross Checklist for Winter Storm Safety & Your Family. (print it out).
- Do you have: Your prescriptions? Cash? Car tanked up? Water & food for 5 days? Gas & mix for snowblower? Salt? Raincoats? (hint: wet snow); Propane?
- Will someone be checking in with the elderly? Family AND neighbors. If you see an older person shoveling, consider offering to help if you can. We know older is better, but the alternative is a regret not worth having.
- What about the pets?? Do you have enough food for 5+ days? We got in trouble with readers for suggesting not to take them for a walk on Saturday. When you see tomorrow's weather, we think you will understand. Until then, here is a Red Cross Checklist for Pets
- Can we work on not having parking wars this time? Just help each other, it's not hard. If the lawn chair battle is going in your neighborhood
- Electronics: Got a cell phone USB battery booster? It's worth having. Leave a USB cord in the car. Don't dump coffee on your computer, don't drop your phone in the snow or toilet.
- Going to order stuff online in the down time? Think about that. When will delivery drivers get it to you?... if they have 2 feet of snow at their house too? Set your delivery time in the order to... say, after President's Day. Well after.
REMEMBER THE SONG, "I Won't Back Down..."?
That seems to be what the US models are showing. View this map not as as an actual 'FORECAST' but an indication of how this event could significantly OVERPERFORM for some areas, and where sleet mixes in, UNDERPERFORM.
That seems to be what the US models are showing. View this map not as as an actual 'FORECAST' but an indication of how this event could significantly OVERPERFORM for some areas, and where sleet mixes in, UNDERPERFORM.
See the DARK BLUES? That's not 5-6" It's the other dark blue on right side of scale. We don't actually think this is PROBABLE, but with 2-3" an hour or more, it is not impossible.
How do we know that? Because of what happened in South Carolina, Texas and the Mississippi Valley recently. All three were catastrophic high precipitation events that way out performed the models. El Nino has the big boy pants on this year and he is showing what he can do. Need some data to convince your supervisor? It's pretty simple. Look at east Pacific sea surface temps as measured were El Nino data is measured (see below for the chart)
- The 2002-03 El Nino measure peaked at 1.2 deg C above normal. Result: Feb 2003 storms
- The 2009-10 El Nino peaked at 1.3 deg C above normal. Result: Snowmageddon.
- The 2015-16 El Nino is peaking at 2.3 deg C above normal! That is 43% higher than 2009-10. Is it a stretch to consider the mathematical hypothesis that this year could produce storms of a 25-40% greater magnitude than in 2009-10? Climatologists might scoff at the idea, but the data seems to be suggesting the Mid-Atlantic may be about to receive it's own El Nino Episode, starting today.
We really hope you are ready, or finishing getting ready, really fast. This is absolutely not a drill.
The Winter Stormcast Team of Foot's Forecast
From Forecaster Connor on Route 32 in Howard County MD
Below: The Oceanic Nino Index is the straight-on measurement of sea surface temperatures in a specific region of the equatorial Pacific where El Nino is sampled, called "Region 3.4"
The Fall 2015 numbers make weather and climate forecasters like us fall out of the chair.
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Weekly Report
Below: The Oceanic Nino Index is the straight-on measurement of sea surface temperatures in a specific region of the equatorial Pacific where El Nino is sampled, called "Region 3.4"
The Fall 2015 numbers make weather and climate forecasters like us fall out of the chair.
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Weekly Report
