You Knew It Wouldn't Be Long...
BUT FIRST, HOW ABOUT SOME SURPRISE SNOW FOR FRIDAY?
3:35 PM 2/4 - SURPRISE SNOW MESSAGE. Short range models have been working this line of precip more west in the overnight hours.
- With cold northwest surface flow and upper level temperatures below 32 F tonight, it is highly probable that any precip falling along the I-95 corridor from Washington to Philadelphia and New York will be observed as snow.
- Untreated surfaces will quickly become slippery, and in the wake of the recent storm, once cannot just snap a finger and expect an army of fully-functioning plows and salt trucks to appear.
- We urge caution to all commuters who have to get to work regardless of road conditions. Friday morning may be an unexpectedly challenging time for many, even if it is just an inch or two.
NEXT WEEK'S STORM: YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME.
- Long range models develop a classic western ridge/eastern trough by Tue;
- Reinforcing shots of cold air into the East Sun-Tue will bring temps below normal;
- The big blue blob? If you want more snow, blue on this map is your friend. Additional details below on our preliminary thoughts.
4:30 PM EST 2/3 - PRELIM MODEL MESSAGE: The U.S. Global Forecast System's Ensemble Model Means for next Tuesday night depicts the following general idea:
- A classic and deep upper level trough parked over the eastern U.S. (the bowed lines on right side)
- A large and powerful "cut-off" Low grinding it's way toward the coast (dark blue area)
- Let's suppose there might be a robust little surface Low.. say along the coast around the same time. You don't suppose that could result in... (:::shh! might upset the media:::) snow.
- Certainly not, how could it snow again? Especially when the rain/snow line is being shown in.. er... in Charleston, South Carolina. Poppycock, hogwash, astounding...
But possible. Above is the latest run of the European operational for Tuesday morning. If you know what to look for on this, then you'll understand why it has forecasters nervous:
- A retrograding Low toward the coast?
- A large deep trough, STILL being modeled after 5 days, with 5 days to go...
- Extremely cold upper level air that would be -30 or -40 F at 17,000 feet, and 0 F at 10,000 feet. Any precip encountering this cold air will most certainly fall as snow.
(Heard there was an App? Shhhh.. don't tell the iPhone Insiders, but there is an app ready for Android users, and an iPhone solution for those folks coming this evening. Details about app access are issued upon confirmation of your enrollment in the system.)Next Update? Our Winter Stormcast Team is preparing an initial round of scenarios to be presented later on Thursday that will outline general possibilities for this next event.
If your organization needs precise, real-time 24/7 winter intelligence from an experienced team trusted by large educational, contractor and corporate institutions, consider our Winter Services. Our clients would be happy to relate examples of how we assisted them in the Blizzard and for many other storms in recent years.
