Preparing for "Peak Season" ? We are...
9/14/14 - As we celebrate with Baltimore the blue-sky glow of the Star Spangled Spectacular this past week, our Long Range Team is keeping watch on a decidedly more chilly sight o'er the ramparts...
Arctic Sea Ice.
We love September for many reasons: Fall Football, start of the harvest season, college applications...
But most importantly, in honor of the Powderhounds out there, September provides the first whiff of indicators for the winter season ahead.
So if you're a school official, snowplow operator, mass transit coordinator, or anyone whose enterprise is impacted by winter weather conditions, here are some early numbers we find significant as you plan toward your "peak season."
- ARCTIC SEA ICE: Although the 30-year trend of sea ice concentration and thickness is understandably much lower in the 2010's than it was in the 1980's, the key is to know where things stand at END of the summer melt-off period. First, Sea Ice up yonder is at least 700,000 square kilometers GREATER than it was in September 2013. Second, the levels are nearly EQUAL to where data was observed in September 2009.
- OCEAN TEMPS / EL NINO / HURRICANES: How about that amazing hurricane season eh? Why you can count all the named storms on, er... one hand. Have you heard about the jellyfish and warm coastal waters in places like Virginia Beach and Ocean City, MD? What's the connection here?
The counterintuitive reality is: If coastal waters are WARMER heading into winter, this provides a more easily accessible evaporation source for "Nor'easters" to tap as they develop along the coast. If the hurricane season is weak, waters along the coast are not "stirred up" by passing storms and thus, can continue warming unabated until the calendar clicks to winter.
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN? The fast, clean version of our early projection:
- A much wetter, snowier winter for the Mid-Atlantic, resembling 2009-2010.
- A cooler summer in the Arctic, Canada and eastern US could signal an earlier start to winter weather - with the first significant accumulation of snow for the Mid-Atlantic by mid November.
- In contrast to 2013-14, the eastern U.S. should see less ice storms and major cold blasts, courtesy of a slightly warmer influence from El Nino.
WE'RE READY WHEN YOU ARE If your business, agency or organization would like to stay well-advised and prepared for the winter ahead, consider contacting our team for a on-site consultation or entertaining Q &A this Fall: email@example.com or call 443-220-6863