Saturday, October 25, 2014

No comments:
Winter of the Black Swan?
EARLY PROJECTIONS ON FIRST ARRIVAL OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IN THE EASTERN US

(Forecaster Foot & the Long Range Team) While relative calm has been the general rule this Fall for a good portion of the eastern U.S., those of us who follow long term trends in seasonal climate data are increasingly concerned that a period of major upheaval in weather is fast approaching. 

In this second of our annual three part "What about winter" we will discuss the Black Swan theory and its implications for the winter ahead.

We will also revisit our overview of climate indicators as first posted on 9/22/2014 to determine what changes or anomalies have developed since.

From that assessment, the objective of this report is to present evidence in the data we believe points to the following for this winter:


  • In extrapolating this pattern forward, we suggest storms this winter, enhanced by an El Nino signal, will produce at times, highly disruptive conditions, such as heavy wet snow combined with strong winds in coastal cities and paralyzing ice storms in interior areas followed by brief but intense periods of below normal temperatures;
  • Several long range indicators such higher than normal Siberian snow cover, changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that may introduce cooler temperatures sooner, as well as new bouts of higher precipitation hinted by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)  we are targeting the period from November 15 to 25 for arrival of the Mid-Atlantic's first significant winter storm.  To have a "White Thanksgiving" but miss a White Christmas would most certainly qualify as a rare and unexpected "Black Swan."

Monday, October 6, 2014

1 comment:
A Team Built By Trust
"My staff tells me that Foot's Forecast is the most accurate around." 
- Former Baltimore County Executive James Smith, in a June 2010 Emergency Operations Center exercise with the Maryland Team.
In our company, earning trust is as important as delivering an accurate forecast
From tens of thousands of daily readers, to professionals in emergency management and the entertainment industry, we are a trusted go-to source for the weather intelligence they need. Consider what over 70,000 readers in Facebook are getting that would benefit you.

Photo: Members of the central Maryland team pause with then-Emergency Manager Steve Welzant of Baltimore County during a September 2012 briefing at the County Operations center in Towson, MD.


Foot's Forecast LLC is a collaborative weather forecastingclient consulting and opportunity-building company headquartered a few miles from Baltimore, Maryland's Inner Harbor. Harnessing the experience and talent of over 50 social-media savvy forecasters and meteorologists across 13 U.S. states. With affiliates stretching from Oregon to Northern Ireland we deliver to clients an unmatched local advantage in authentic weather services.


Surprising Facts About Us