Friday, February 24, 2017

1 comment:
"She Drives Me Crazy." - Part 2
-Fine Young Cannibals, 1989
  • La Nina: The main source of your weather frustration due to inconsistency of patterns this season. Why? Lack of a strong signal from multiple factors (Weak polar air, limited moisture transport from oceans, reduced snow cover) produces the type of erratic outcomes we have seen in 2016-17.
  • Are we done? Probably not. Potential is rising for a resurgent period of significantly colder air in the eastern U.S. from March 3 through 15. Several clippers in this period would have favorable conditions to produce snowfall, including ample moisture and overnight freezing temperatures enabling accumulation.
  • Hope for the future: NOAA Climate models are pointing to rising  chance of a weak El Nino by this coming Fall, with some similarities to the 2002-03 episode that produced a snowy winter in the East. Until then, the temperature trends are one reason why the current La Nina pattern drives us crazy -- see below for the flip flop that's coming in the next 2 weeks.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH FRI 3/3
(Red is above normal, Blue is below normal)


TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH FRI 3/10


Tuesday, February 7, 2017

13 comments:
"So you're telling me there's a chance?"
-Jim Carrey in 1994's Dumb & Dumber

Rising potential for a brief, heavy accumulating snow event 
in the eastern Mid-Atlantic starting early Thursday morning.

CURRENT NWS WINTER STORM WATCHES & WARNINGS 


  • Yes, we know it's warm, that's the issue: Air and road temperatures on Wednesday in the 50s or 60s will be accompanied by considerable moisture from a system crossing  the Southeast and heading to the coast. See the projected surface map for 7 AM Thursday. 
  • By Wed evening, an influx of much colder air into the mid-Atlantic states from Arctic High pressure moving into the Great Lakes may convert the moist environment above the region to heavy, wet snow. 
  • This event will be all about THE LINE. Not the freezing line, but the temperature line at 5000 feet as shown above. With 0.50" of liquid yet to move through by 1 AM Thu, upper level temperatures of -4 C to - 8 C from the 95 corridor to interior PA, WV and northern VA would allow rapid development of heavy, wet snow across many metro areas. This could result in low visibility and roads becoming slippery under several hours of snow bursts over many metro and interior areas. 

  • Yearning for a glimmer of hope for just a teensy bit of snow? Your wish is about to be granted. To be fully in the know, we invite you to lock in a full experience in winter intelligence, by becoming an Insider. They knew about this storm two weeks ago, and it's time you should be in on that, right? 


- The FF Winter Stormcast Team

Saturday, January 28, 2017

11 comments:
"And That's The Way It Is...?"

FORECASTER CELINE MAY THINK SNOW THIS WINTER IS DONE. 
WE BELIEVE FANTASTIC SNOW IS STILL LURKING IN THE LONG RANGE. 
(Joining the Insiders will help you know where to find it.)



10:00 AM 1/28 - Long time Powderhounds can tell when we're reading their mind, and we know what you're going through in winters like this. Then again, Spring-a-lings and Coastals are probably candy happy with the way it is so far. For the rest of us...
  • When you want it to snow...there's no easy way out. When you're ready for Pow, but the forecast's in doubt,
  • Don't give up on your sky, because we have a solution if you're willing to try.
  • It's plain to see if we stick together, weather will find a way. 
  • Just don't surrender, because you can win in this thing called snow.

The simple answer? Join the Insiders and receive exclusive access to our inside reports via app email and text updates. Please see our previous report on 1/21 regarding La Nina and it's influence on this winter, and let Forecaster Celine know you aren't willing to accept this season as the way it is.

Short version of what we see? 
  • Temperatures: Surface and upper level conditions over North America are cooling at the right time as we head into February. The ground is becoming refrozen over night to the point that once precipitation occurs, it can easily stick.
  • Precipitation: The southern jet stream is slowly being reactivated as increased moisture transport will begin occuring from the east Pacific into the U.S. in the next 2 weeks. 
  • Snow cover: As clippers cross the Great Lakes, more and more snow squalls are helping rebuild lost snow cover in the Northeast. 
What it all means: Allow this process to continue another 5-10 days, and it's easy to predict much of the Mid-Atlantic will be primed to go powder. Even better, it would be right on schedule during a period in the February calendar already well-known for memorable snow events. 


And THAT'S the way we think it is...


The FF Winter Stormcast Team