Tuesday, February 17, 2004


2/17 MORNING UPDATE:
"When all is said and done, more will have been said, than done."

- Attributed to Dana Foot, although she says that was a quote from someone else

8:45 AM - Snow has begun in Raleigh, NC, a full 5 hours earlier than anticipated. And the storm is forming off the GA/FLA coast. I want to reiterate that this could resemble the Feb 1967 or Feb 1979 storms.. where you went to bed expecting 1-3" (4-6" on eastern shore) and woke up to 6 inches in the city and 1-2 feet on the eastern shore. This would be because today's storm changed it's developmental characteristics in the early morning hours after you turned off the news. Otherwise, all the Baltimore TV forecasters are justified in their non-chalance and I am the one eating (wearing) eggs for breakfast tomorrow.

5:30 AM - Last night while looking at the computer models and reviewing NWS forecast discussions from throughout the east coast, I munched on the only appropriate type of ice cream I could think of for this storm situation...Rocky Road. The I-95 corridor is on a rocky road with this storm and could end up with an inch, or 6+ inches depending on which forecaster you believe the most.

Only three things to say this morning as we prepare to see who wins the accumulation challenge posed last night:
1. I have no changes to the amounts and timing as listed in earlier posts.

2. NWS forecasters are having a justifiably hard time sticking to their "most of the precip will be along the shore" call as they recognize there are many factors lining up to shove the Low closer to the coast later tonight. This would result in all the Winter Storm Warning areas being shifted inland 75 miles...right over the big cities of the I-95 corridor.

3. This storm is a battle between those who believe solely in what the computer says, and those who are taking their own experience into account and using the computer model as a guide. I place myself among the latter. This could very well end up being a whiteout in the major cities, and you are hearing the TV forecasters this morning starting to hedge a little on their "eastern Maryland" calls. However, if they are right and I am wrong...Baltimore Metro schools may not even see a delay Wednesday morning.

Last statement for the morning... I need an alert observer from the Baltimore metro area to provide updates on what Marty Bass says. He cracks me up and I am never fast enough in the morning to switch back to CBS and see what he is saying. Marty has a tendency to either way overcook or way undercook the storm. If someone out there could post in the comments what Marty says, that would be a big help.

So a word to teachers... take work home tonight but be planned for Wednesday just in case.

Now the waiting game begins...

No comments: