Wednesday, February 25, 2004


2/25 MORNING UPDATE:
"You can please some of the people some of the time, but you can't please all the people all of the time."
- Author unknown

TIME FOR A REALITY CHECK:

1. How did the forecast for yesterday's event verify?
- Central PA: 2-4" predicted, Result: State College and Altoona reported 3-4"
- Philadelphia: 1-2" predicted in north/west suburbs. Result: Paoli reported 1" on grassy areas
- Baltimore on north: up to an inch predicted for Frederick, Carroll, Cecil, N Baltimore and Harford.
Result: many areas reported less than an inch, only on grassy areas.
- Baltimore on south: mostly rain and snow mixed predicted, no accumulation. Result: Perhaps one hour when snow was observed mixed with rain, otherwise rain throughout the area.

If you are disappointed there was no delay this morning, remember the adage:
"Storms from the west don't bring extra rest." And yes, the fruit cup was right again.

2. What about the previous long term forecast?
This was the week projected to deliver a snowstorm which would give us the 8th week in a row of less than 5 school days. The storm did take place, but not in the way we expected. Parts of it stayed south, parts came from the north. Overall, this forecast came up short as the elements did not come together at the right time. Virginia on south through the Carolinas are going to see the storm we thought was coming up this way. So with Mardi Gras winding down, many of you in the Baltimore Metro area can celebrate your
first FULL week of school since January 12. Man it's going to be tough.

3. Where do we go from here?
Right now, there's two camps out there. First, I know there are many loyal readers who want to see a stop to the seemingly empty promises of "winter's not over yet" business. Those folks feel jilted and rightly so. This crowd is ready for a full scale shift to spring. Hence, their title is: "Spring-a-lings."

However, I also know there is still a solid block of powderhounds who will take any snow they can get, even in March after blooming has begun. The best I can tell you is that I have something to offer for everyone in the next 30 days or so. But let me address the issue on most people's mind:

IS WINTER DONE OR WHAT?

There is not likely to be a big storm the rest of this season. However, I do think we are going to limp to the finish line of Spring. Last winter February went out with a bang (5" storm on the 27th), March came in like a lion (upper 20's for highs the first couple days), and then the cold just kept hanging tough through most of March and into April. I remember well because I was one of the spring track coaches at my school.

The next 5 days is a good preview of what you'll see the next 30 days. A couple days of mild to warm weather, followed by rain, followed by a cool down, then a few brief glances of snow or ice, followed by another warming trend. Rinse, lather, repeat. So enjoy this preview of spring... it will get increasingly glorious Wednesday through Sunday.

HOW ABOUT THE FIRST WEEK OF PRACTICE? (for Baltimore and Philly)

Monday: Cloudy, relatively warm. High around 60. Run them outside.
Tuesday: Still mild but showers, getting heavier as the day progresses. Might have to run practice inside, as there could be some scattered thunderstorms from DC north to New Jersey.
Wednesday: Some clouds, cooler, windy. Fields will dry. Bring a hat to practice. Highs mid 40's
Thursday: Clouds hang in, cooler, high around 40. Some wind. Dry fields.
Friday: Another storm moves in, will be a cold, driving rain. High upper 30's to 40.

The next likelihood of even just some flurries or light snow is not until Sunday the 7th, but not enough to disrupt school on Monday.

The week after that promises to remain cooler and unsettled, with rain every other day followed by below normal temperatures throughout. Because it is going to get warm this coming weekend, that portends a big pay-back down the road. If the atmosphere gets out of balance too early, it will over-correct and retaliate with colder than normal later on. Remember how nice it got at Christmas and then January we went into the deep freeze?

No comments: