Tuesday, August 3, 2004


You heard it here first. This forecast site projected that the longer the hurricane season progressed without a tropical system, the more likely that one which did finally form would be strong. Look at how Alex blew up from a minor tropical depression only three days ago to a CAT 2 hurricane.

This is a lesson to all of us...never underestimate the power of the Gulf Stream. With abundant 83 degree waters near the coast, we should not be surprised that it strengthened so quickly. It is interesting to note that the computer models predicted Alex would be a hurricane, but the human forecasters downplayed that.

Now with sustained winds at 100 mph and gusts to 120mph, Alex is as strong today as Isabel was when she made landfall. It should give you pause to think that if the Bermuda High shows signs of shifting west, the next round of tropical systems will get shoved right into the East Coast.


By Thursday, Tropical Storm Bonnie will have formed near the Lesser Antilles and continue on a track towards Puerto Rico. Then she is projected to turn north, and right now the computer models show this storm to start curving away from the coast earlier. Hmmm... we shall see.

Wind speed projections bring this storm to hurricane strength by Saturday. However... the water is much warmer way down there... close to 90 F. And conditions are very favorable for rapid development.

Bonnie bears watching. We'll know by Saturday is this storm will send us all running to Home Desperate for plywood, or is we can just watch video of the surfers and swells along the coast.

And there's ANOTHER system behind Bonnie... O what a month this will be.

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