Tuesday, August 31, 2004

early Tue morning update:
SOMETHING IS ROTTEN IN DENMARK WITH THE COMPUTER MODELS

Quick post this morning to let you know that the computer modeling for Frances' track have started to flip-flop around. That is usually an indication that a change is forthcoming in what we previously thought was the case... and a direct hit on Florida into Sunday... may not be the case after all. So tell your friends and family on the Carolina coast that it's just like Hugo...again.

There are about 5 major super-powerful computer programs that run a projection about every 6 hours. Until last night, the concensus was sending Frances right into Kennedy Space Center. But now one of the programs that was leaning way left (into Florida) is now leaning way right (toward the Carolinas). Accuweather is also starting to smell something amiss with the models, and has stayed conservative with the Florida hit on Sunday.

We'll know for sure by Thursday if the high to our east will be weakening, but it appears the models may already by anticipating that. This means a landfall along the Carolina coast... and big trouble for Virginia, the Bay and Maryland.

See the current projections:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_model.html

The "red line" which is the model of choice for many forecasters, is now taking aim on the SC/NC border. It is not a stretch of the imagination to see the storm curving north and northeast after landfall. Only time will tell.

Next update Tuesday night after dinner.

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