Thursday, September 2, 2004

evening revised update: (as of 11 pm)

HURRICANE WARNINGS POSTED FROM FLORIDA CITY (near Miami) to FLAGLER BEACH (north of Daytona) has a sobering and very blunt analysis of the impacts of Frances on Florida. If you need to convince friends or family down there... show them the links at

What we know:
Frances has stabilized around 130 mph, but re-strengthening to near Cat 5 is possible.
Landfall in Florida is almost certain, save for a sudden shift to the north on Friday or Sat.
Forward speed has slowed to 10 mph. Westward motion is approx WNW.
Pressure is down to 939 mb, and the lower it goes, the higher the sustained winds will climb.
Storm surge of 15-18 feet is likely along a 100-mile swath of coastline.
Evacuations have been ordered in all coastal counties from Cape Canaveral on south to Miami

The Mid-Atlantic from North Carolina on northward will be likely be spared the worst effects from this storm. There remains a significant flood threat if the storm recurves into the Appalachians.

What we don't know:
The exact location of landfall, but it appears the computers are projecting south of Cape Canaveral... in thge Melbourne area. Any shift farther south is better as the inland counties west of Fort Pierce are much less densely populated than the Melbourne-Orlando area.

How the storm will interact with a high and front to possibly create equally devastating floods in the Appalachians.

How much rain would fall over Virginia and Maryland, but suffice to say that Sunday through Wednesday will be very rainy and somewhat windy in the Mid-Atlantic.

The next update will not be until Friday early morning as I am on a brief trip during Thursday late afternoon and evening.

And we are keeping our eye on what might become... IVAN THE TERRIBLE building off the African Coast. This is the storm I projected would form and head for the western Gulf... from New Orleans on west to Galveston.

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