Thursday, March 24, 2005


Early Spring 1

Heading into the long Easter Holiday Weekend, a few items for discussion:

1. EAGER BEAVERS at the Boston and New York City NWS are cleaning the wood from their teeth and using the branches to paddle each other as they bit off a great big storm which turned into the KaNOna of the year. TV and Internet outlets alike all were calling for 5-10" or 6-12" of snow throughout southern New England. "Well, the models said this or that." Is what forecasters will say. "The storm headed farther south than we expected." They'll say. If you look at the satellite loops and radar animation, you'll notice nothing of the sort. The storm simply DID NOT materialize in the way THEY FORECASTED it would. I've been down this road before, I know. The easier answer is... WE MADE A MISTAKE. The computer models over-estimated the amount of cold air available, and surface temperatures in Boston never got below 34 F. Moisture from the ocean was not wrapped into the storm as extensively as the computers indicated. The mistake came when forecasters trusted the computers more than their own intuition, which I have also done before.

2. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. I will allow the storm to finish before grading it, but I'm confident that Mr. E.H., Our trusty Director of the Northeast Observatory in Boston, will take care of that for me. Here's an updated look at what actually fell where.

3. MORE RAIN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY, CLEARNING SATURDAY. It will be a changeable weekend with fast moving systems bringing rain to the south of I-80, with snow/rain mixed to the north.

4. EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A TOTAL WASHOUT for most of the Northeast. The European model above shows a Low Pressure that will track over the Mid-Atlantic. You all know well enough that means rain for almost everyone. Better hold that Easter Egg Hunt inside, and put a poncho over the Sunday dress. The good news is it should be seasonal temperatures or even a few degrees above normal, around 60 F in Philly, low 60's Baltimore, mid 50's NYC and Boston, with 50's in Interior Pennsylvania.


Lee said...

The local weathermen actually underestimated this storm (for a change). A "little slushy accumulation on grassy areas" turned into 2 inches of solid snow in Altoona, PA with no warning (and lots of car wrecks).

Frank said...

We had about an inch of snow and ice in central NJ.

E.H. Boston said...

Well, ain't I wearing a grocery bag over my head right now...


Boston: Officially 0.5", but I did not see that so NOTHING!!!
Mr. Foots Grade: 0"/6" = E
E.H.'s Grade: 0"/10" = E---

Woburn: 1.5" (melted away now)
Mr. Foots Grade: 1.5"/6" = E
My Grade: 1.5"/11" = E---

Providence: 3.3"/4" = A-


E.H. Boston said...

Looking over the maps, most of them are depicting a rainstorm here post Easter, around Monday through Tuesday.

However, MOST of the models are showing the storm moving south of MA. Could there be snow? MRF shows a 996 mb. storm near the Benchmark here early next week, bringing us strong NE winds. Could this be a surprise Nor'Easter, or just another cruel joke by Mother Nature?

MY GUESS: Rain & Street Flooding/Snow confined to Northern New England and Mountains.


As I look over the sandy barren Boston ground this eve of Good Friday, I say good night.

Good night.

Terpboy said...

Well, the GFS has moisture in Maryland at 12Z Saturday, and the 540 line is down in DC....another gummed up average, or will we see some white stuff??

Belated Happy Vernal Equinox, and early Happy Bunny Day to all.....