Monday, September 5, 2005

KATRINA II ?

Katrina II

I am just flabbergasted at the possibility that the GFDL projects a tropical disturbance east of Florida to grow into a Category 3 or 4 hurricane and once again, threaten Southeast Louisiana. I am not making this up for the sake of ratings, I was shocked and stunned at this animation of the GFDL model for the next 120 hours. I hope this is model mayhem and not the real thing. Compare how the GFDL did on Katrina's projected path with this animation. I am starting to read that other models are beginning to show some kind of hurricane in the northern Gulf by late this upcoming week. Below is the current model projections, and granted there is huge variance this far out, but if you think about it, this is not all that far away since a week ago today the Gulf Coast was still under Katrina's wrath. Gulf sea surface temperatures weren't disrupted much by Katrina's path, as indicated on this recent temp map. I'll post more on this developing storm as information becomes available. For now, keep an eye on it with this IR satellite loop.

Katrina IIA



A NATIONAL TRAGEDY

Tragedy 2

Pictures from FOX News on Katrina's aftermath

Tragedy 1

NOAA satellite image of public school buses flooded in the storm that could have been used for evacuation of residents less able to do so on their own. This is just one of many examples of the inexcusable and collosal failure at all levels of government to properly coordinate this disaster. The full text of the article accompanying this photo is found on wikipedia.org

In the coming week, there is concern for tropical development both near the U.S. coast and far out to sea in the Cape Verde Islands off the African coast. These two trouble spots will have to be watched closely as we cannot take another major hurricane strike on the U.S. mainland this season. If we do, I believe the economic stability we’ve enjoyed since the mid 1980’s will be in jeopardy. I will continue with hurricane forecasting shortly.

Atlantic 9-4-05

Image from a weather blog published by Steve Gregory on wunderground.com It encapsules the current thinking on Atlantic activity: some concerns but no major threats right now.


I am temporarily redirecting the scope of this website to focus squarely on the fallout of Hurricane Katrina. This discussion is central to why I have created this site in the first place, and that was to provide viewers with a different perspective on storm analysis and preparation that is not being presented by mainstream weather or media sources. The other catalyst that spawned this site was the poor lack of planning by local and state officials in dealing with Hurricane Isabel in September 2003. While that situation is microscopic in comparison to this, the same themes have been repeated. The government and media did not heed their own warnings about storm surge and evacuation logistics.

I have been gathering notes and observations all week regarding the overall Katrina Catastrophe of 2005. Some of my commentary is based on my own observations, some of it is from other blogs, internet media, written reports and the TV. As you know there is so much information out there to process, so I am trying to get a grasp like many peope of what really happened and why. My aim is to analyze the reasons this catastrophe was so huge, the problems behind the relief efforts, the enormous post-storm consequences for the country and the areas dealing with refugees, as well as the long term implications for New Orleans, the Gulf Coast and the nation as a whole. I also have blame to issue for the major of the city, the governor, and the federal government. I am not simply jumping on the blame bandwagon like everyone else, I believe there are sound and scientifically verifiable reasons why failure at all levels of government are responsible for the horrific tragedy that is still unfolding before our eyes. Dr. Jeff Masters offers a poignant essay on his weather blog from a meteorologist's perspective.

You will have to forgive some of my discussions that follow, because I believe that especially in New Orleans itself, the blood of those people is on the hands of the mayor, the governor, Congress and the President. I personally have studied and followed the “New Orleans Nightmare scenario” for years, and have conducted a number of lessons in my Earth Science classes on the same. That the President said, “No one could have anticipated the levees would break.” Is the worst-possible one sentence excuse for this disaster when it is clear the Army Corps of Engineers, and anyone else involved in hurricane planning with N.O. knew those levees were designed for Category 3 storms and no more. In actuality, it is a miracle that more levees did not break, but that even one of them did was catastrophic enough.


LOOKING BACK ON KATRINA

How amazing it is that in less than in less than a week, a world-reknown international city has descended into total chaos, anarchy and pseudo-tribalism and the government seems incapable of restoring order. This sounds more like Liberia, or Haiti or Baghdad than the United States. We now have American citizens who are refugees in their own country. We have mothers who lost their babies from heat exhaustion because American bureaucracy got in the way of getting the help to those who need it most. We have seen a hurricane expose deep and disturbing problems in how our society conducts itself, as discussed in a thought-provoking lead article in the UK's Independent.


THE GOVERNMENT DID NOT TAKE THE STORM THREAT SERIOUSLY

Evidence that the federal government did not take the possibility of a major hurricane strike on New Orlean that seriously, although they knew it could happen any year:

- The White House continually cut funding for further New Orleans levee improvements in the past 4 years, and some of that money was diverted to Iraq this year. Previous requests for New Orleans levee projects were rejected or scaled-down, and New Orleans officials were very worried that further cuts would endanger the city's future.


- In July 2004, FEMA hosted it's very own hurricane conference at the Louisiana State Emergency Operations center. Dubbed the “Hurricane Pam” Exercise, there were a chorus of findings that all pointed to the need for a large-scale over-powering response system needed were this storm to ever strike. However the follow-up study which might have implemented some of those findings was never completed, according to CNN. Plenty of people at all levels of government knew this disaster was predicted years in advance.

- Numerous press articles and reports have been written about the "New Orleans Nightmare Scenario" over the past 10 years, starting with a National Geographic Video special titled, "Cyclone" which I have shown in my Earth Science classes for the past 6 years. More recently, Nat'l Geo did an October 2004 Cover Story that spells out in eerie detail what would happen with a major storm strike, as did also the Times-Picayune in a June 2002 special report titled "Washing Away" and the Scientific American in October 2001. Ironically enough, Popular Mechanics also published a short article on this, but it was lost in the more important news of the day, for the issue date was September 11, 2001.

- Considering that billions of dollors have been pumped into the levee system over past 40 years, it was assumed that the levees and pumps were adequate for a Category 3, and that the probability of a Category 4 making a direct hit was low enough to warrant less funding in present day. Or so the government assumed.

- Government statisticians may have believed that given the frequency of hits in and around N.O within the past 3-4 years (Georges 1998, Isidore in 2002, Ivan 2004, Dennis a miss, Bret and Cindy in 2005) that it was now stastically less likely for a Category 5 storm to make a direct or even near direct hit, especially this season.) The Corps believed that on any given year, the chance of a Cat 5 strike on the city was low, possibly 300 to 1. So the recommendation would be that it is not as necessary to have a full-scale plan in place ready to activate when the probability of needing such a plan in the near future is low. The cost of implementing this plan, which I recently learned was still in draft form by August 2005, would be prohibitive if preparation for other disasters were deemed more important, such as planning for another terrorist attack. This concept of "more dollars for terrorism, less dollars for everything else" was probably lurking below the surface, it just took a major event like Katrina to bring it to light, as discussed in an article by MSNBC.


- MSNBC uncovered a Homeland Security disaster planning document, similar to the "National Response Plan" which listed the most likely disaster scenarios requiring a national response. There were apparently over 100 different kind of disasters described, but it was reported that only 2 situations involved the federal response to a hurricane strike, and even those were in the context of if a terrorist attack was followed by or preceded by a hurricane.

- Apparently, the U.S. government knew of the flooding risks in New Orleans over many years, but had no problem appropriating $10 billion dollars over a period of many years on the “Big Dig” in Boston which did alleviate traffic but did not ‘cost’ any lives. By the same token, the government could not "find enough money" to fund a $2.5 billion levee improvement system in New Orleans that could have saved hundreds or possibly thousands of lives. I do not fault taxpayers for this in the sense that it is not their fault money was not spent on levee improvement. But I ask this: If a flood killed thousands in Boston, or New York, or Chicago...and thousands of Caucasians were among the dead, would there be a nationwide riot against the government and demands for accountability?

WHY IT TOOK SO LONG FOR SERIOUS AID AND RELIEF TO ARRIVE

Plain and simple: There was an across-the-board failure to do any large-scale contingency planning, or to take seriously the importance of doing so. I can cite a variety of sources for this I uncovered today. I'm sure FEMA officials probably did do a lot of planning and preparation, but by what we see on the ground, it obviously was not enough. The New Orleans Times-Picayune summed up their solution in once sentence: "Fire everyone at FEMA." My contentions are based on partly on what I have observed, on my gut feeling, and what I've known about natural disaster planning over the years. If you have found a more credible source that refutes or supports what I am saying, please post your source in the comments. A link from CNN has a transcript of the "Big Disconnect" between statements of government managers and reality on the ground.


In the fall of 2004, I recall hearing the FEMA director explain how they already had supplies in place ready to assist victims once the storm passed. Many of you know that I watch the storm and preparations for it like a hawk… from a week before it happens, right through every minute of the storm, to the end. The following statements are fictional, because during all the cable network around-the-clock coverage, I did not hear the following spoken:

I did not hear FEMA discuss in depth the usual pre-storm arrangements being made, such aswe have stockpile of food and water already in place outside where we think the storm will hit.” OR "Since the hurricane center has given us a general idea where this storm is going to make landfall, hundreds of FEMA officials are already in place ready to respond outside the storm's path."

I did not hear FEMA say,Once the storm began affecting the coast, and it was clear that New Orleans, the Mississippi and Alabama coasts were going to be devastated, we directed our staff to begin loading onto trucks massive amounts of supplies, including food, water, medicine, baby formula and more." Note: While the pre-landfall disaster declaration by the President did enable FEMA to pre-position supplies, it is still unfathomable why all those supplies took so long to reach those who need them most.


I did not hear FEMA say,
It is ironic this storm is occuring when it is, because last year at about this time, we conducted a very in-depth training exercise on what to do if a major storm were to strike New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana. We have implemented many of the recommendations from that study in preparing for this storm. I can tell you that as soon as the storm passes, you will see a large convoy of relief trucks heading toward the affected areas. In advance of those trucks are going to be heavy equipment vehicles loaded with bulldozers, and other heavy machinery to clear roads of debris so we can get through.”

I did not hear FEMA or Louisiana officials say, Given the damage inflicted by Hurricane Ivan last year on bridges such as I-10 in the Pensacola area, we have already made contigency plans in the event that similar type bridges fail during the storm surge. Since Ivan was also a Category 4 at landfall, it is quite possible that the twin-span going across toward Mississippi could be heavily damaged. To prevent this from interfering with relief efforts we have enlisted the help of the Navy and have already dispatched 4 large ships to the region which will arrive shortly after the storm clears the area."

IF YOU HEARD STATEMENTS TO THE CONTRARY, PLEASE POST IN THE COMMENTS. I AM FREELY WILLING TO ADMIT IF MY SUPPOSITIONS ABOUT THIS ARE WRONG.

LOOKING INTO THE POST-KATRINA ERA

Whether we are willing to acknowledge now or later, this storm will be a defining moment in American History as much as 9/11 was. More attention will be paid to how storms can disrupt our national infrastructure, and deeper than that, that this one storm may reshape American society forever, opening a discussion on the future of race, class, oil, politics, the environment and the role of government. Our life has changed dramatically, though it may be a while before the changes catch up to everyone, eventually you'll know this one storm was, "The One" for all of us, and not just in the price at the pump.

- Though minor to the public, a major event in the forecasting industry will be a total re-evaluation within the Commerce Department, NOAA and NWS as to the effectiveness of the public warning system, and what changes need to be made. Obviously a "hurricane warning" with dire predictions from the NWS were enough to get people out of harm's way.

- Will the NWS be willing to modify it’s 24 hour rule on hurricane warnings, given than 72 hours was not enough. Storm preparation and evacuation costs state and local governments $1 million for every mile of coastline included in a hurricane warning. The weather service would contend they don’t want to issue a warning that covers too large an area for fear that if it did not strike inside that zone, people would not take the next warning seriously. So the question is, looking back, was that policy effective in saving lives? Apparently not. While 1 million people did leave, hundreds of thousands did not, and now tens of thousands may be dead. That does not seem like an effective warning system.

- The government and FEMA will re-evaluate how to adjust airport closures and flight cancellations in the 24-48 hour period before a storm’s landfall. Some airlines, including Delta, stopped outbound flights from Armstrong Airport at least 36 hours before landfall, and had there been better contingency planning and wider coordination with the airlines, more people would have been able to leave the city safely, especially the old and infirm.

NEW ORLEANS IS NO LONGER NEW, BUT OLD

(Please note I mean no disrespect to those who may have resided in N.O. I am merely stating my scientific observations and theories about the recovery.)

- The actual "New Orleans" will become a much smaller city, shrinking to a fifth of it’s original size...the "Old Orleans" we knew on August 28.

- with the French Quarter, part of Garden District and some historical areas intact, in perhaps 5 years , the city will become more of a novelty tourist destination and more of an industrial port city than the major residential city it once was. The mind-blogging challenges facing the rebuilding of this city will dominate the nation for years to come.

- will become an EPA Superfund site, as chemicals, sewage, petroleum products, decomposition of plants, animals and bodies have created the "toxic cesspool" talked about extensively before the storm.

- Whether there is 2 feet or 20 feet of water in the city and surrounding area, the “toxic cesspool” the media and other agencies explained before the storm has now happened. The depth of standing water does not matter, it is the fact that any heavy chemicals in that water are going to settle to the ground and seep in, becoming intertwined in the subsurface. Under normal EPA guidelines in a situation like this, when there is a potential long term health hazard, the top 3 to 6 feet of topsoil has to be removed and disposed.

- Instead of being bulldozed, the EPA will have to constructed several remediation sites in the city, and remediate all the soil and water through specially designed incinerators, evaporation ponds and fume stacks that you see at Superfund sites.

- The Army Corps of Engineers will have to overhaul their process of determining how to best manage large infrastructure projects like the Louisiana Levee system. A 50 year effort resulted in thousands dead. A spokesperson for the Corps said he felt the levee system was a “success” because it did not fail initially at the height of the storm.

WE ARE MORE VULNERABLE

I contend we are now more vulnerable than at any other time in our history, including in the days following 9/11. Why?

- We have massive military resources tied up in Afghanistan and Iraq.

- We have hundreds of thousands of other military personnel scattered at bases around the world, and for good reasons, but the fact remains it takes resources on the U.S. mainland to support those troops elsewhere.

- FEMA is already mitigating dozens of other on-going regional and local disasters, including the continuing cleanup from Dennis, Ivan, Frances, Jeanne and Charley. There are still thousands of families in Florida living in temporary housing, and thousands of homes with blue tarps for roofs. Another hurricane strike would make rapid response much more difficult because resources are stretch so thin, despite what the President says about both running a war and helping those at home.

- Heart of the hurricane season is arriving now. September and October are climatologically the most active months. Among the worst U.S. landfalling storms in September include the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, The Great New England Hurricane of 1938, and more recenty Hurricanes Gloria in 1985, Floyd in 1999 and Isabel in 2003). If we have another hurricane strike anywhere in the country, even in a sparsely populated area, it will outstrip the government’s ability to respond.

- I think back to 1989, when we had Hurricane Hugo devastate Charleston and South Carolina, then it was followed by the San Francisco Earthquake. Then just 3 years later was Hurricane Andrew in 1992. I think you’d agreed from what you’ve seen on the news about our current state of affairs, that there had better not be ANY incidents of any kind anywhere in the world.

- God forbid there is a major earthquake in California, another hurricane, unrest in some part of the world that supplies oil, a terrorist attack, North Korea tests a tactical nuclear weapon. Any major event of this kind would put a long term surcharge on the world economy, and put a crippling influence on the U.S. economy.

This report is incomplete, and I will be adding more material as I refine it and add sources for some of the discussion. If you come across analysis that supports OR refutes my findings, please post in the comments. Do not be scared off by blogger.com's request for you to create a blogsite, that is just a formality. Just create a "fake site" but giving it a bogus name using your initials or some other innocuous title, you do not have to actually "create a site" in any way shape or form. Many readers would be encouraged to hear the thoughts of those who read this site from the Gulf Coast and elsewhere across the country. And every day since this nightmare began, out family continues to pray several times a day that God will give the people in this storm the strength and resources to go on.

19 comments:

Julee said...

I just saw a piece by Tom Foreman on CNN where he showed video clips of Mike Brown, head of FEMA, addressing the people of New Orleans three days before Katrina, warning them that a dangerous Cat 4 hurricane was headed their way and that they should evacuate the area, then showed a video of Mike Brown after Katrina saying that no one had had any idea what was about to happen.
He also showed a press conference with Chertoff after Katrina. Foreman refuted with video and written documentation every excuse Chertoff was putting forth for their lack of respone.
Foreman asked why they hadn't been removed from their positions -- not for political reasons, but practical reasons since they obviously weren't capable.
I HOPE they show it again later today so that more people have access to it.

Terpboy said...

Chertoff said (this AM?) that the National Guard has rscued over 10,000 people.

Spin?

Or did I miss something?

Someone (Brown or Chertoff) said that the residents of the Gulf were "told to get out", and that those who "chose to stay, made a mistake..."

Like everyone in NO was supposed to pop a few cases of Evian from their garage in their SUV, and make tracks to the summer home. (apologies to Bill Maher)

E.H. Boston said...

Its extremely sad to think that the United States of America, in the 21st century, LOST a major city to the unrelenting force of mother nature.

No matter what people say, New Orleans will never be the same. It is now just another victim to mother nature and something for all of us to learn from and never have this happen again.

New Orleans...a city lost to nature.

Julee said...

Terpy,
Yes, Chertoff DID say 10,000 -- another thing Foreman questioned this morning on CNN.
Spin?
LIE! Trying to dig themselves out of a morass of ineptitude. Do they think no one is paying attention?
The only other explanation for the lag time is if FEMA, et al, had to wait for presidential permission to move. If THAT is the case, we will never know it. How horrible would THAT scenario be to explain?
We need a political hurricane to get those squirrels out of Washington.

Terpboy said...

Oh, by the way, Mr. F-

I agree with almost everything you said. My only question lies with the culpability of the NO mayor. Was his sin that of complacency?

I want to say that the Feds drop the ball, but to drop the ball, you have to be in the game.

They weren't in the game.

They weren't AT the game.

They were pretending that there WASN'T a game...

Mr. Foot said...

Terp:

I have a source I am trying to confirm that the director of the hurricane center, Max Mayfield, apparently called the mayor and pleaded with him to begin the evacuations. Even my colleagues at school were wondering "What took so long?" in getting the initial round of evacuations going. There was a voluntary evac on Friday, then mandatory on Saturday, and that was by all measures... 24 hours too late. We all knew it would take 72 hours to evac and there were only 60 hours left before landfall when the mandatory was issued. I also take issue with the evac itself. Is the mayor not responsible for coordinating or putting someone in charge of coordinating the HOSPITAL evac? Why on God's earth were those critical care people the FIRST ones out, not the LAST ONES? Totally unacceptable. Why was there not triage coordination with the airport FIRST before the storm to set up a makeshift transport center to get the ICU people and infant ICU out before the airport closed?

The mayor does not get off scott free. He and everyone else knew by at least Friday morning it was the worse case...a slow moving Cat 5 coming from the south. The deaths of those critical care people are on his hands. I would tell him myself if I could.

Each life is precious, but the scope of the failure does lie more with the state and federal government. If they botched this so bad, makes you wonder how prepared we really are if there was a TERRORIST attack.

I agree with e.h... the score is:

NATURE 3, MAN 0

(3 is for the states hit)

Terpboy said...

Mr. F-

Thanks.

If I can find the Monday 0430 or 0500 weather statement fron Baton Rouge, I'll post it tomorrow. It pulled absolutely no punches.

To all:

I just watched a Parish President breakdown on Meet the Press...I assume it was today's re-run.

He said-
FEMA turned back several Wal-Mart trucks filled with water on Tuesday saying the area did not need them.

FEMA told a Coast Guard ship NOT to give the Parish diesel fuel after the CG offered already it.

FEMA came in and physically disconnected the Parish emergency radio links. The Sheriff re-established it, and it is now under armed guard.

The Parish President then broke down completely as he relayed the story of the emergency management chair's mother who called every day asking for assistance from her nursing home...until she drowned Friday.

Terpboy said...

Belay that last post that I was going to make...Mr. F linked it earlier this week...I just remembered.

Sorry...

Mr. Foot said...

Yes Terp I also read that transcript. God it is just beyond comprehension. How Bush and Congress both do not have hell to pay for this would be incalculable. This is like Dante's Inferno except it's not on fire... yet.

Julee said...

I'm with you Mr. Foot, I can't begin to imagine this possibility.
I saw the WNBC weatherman kind of sidestepping the disturbance earlier this morning, so I didn't think it was at all possible that it would follow Katrina's path.
How soon before the path is more defined?

E.H. Boston said...

WHOA!!!

E.H. Boston said...

Didn't Hurricane Katrina cool down the Gulf of Mexico waters even a little bit to not allow such another storm to develop again.

Wishful thinking I guess, water temps were around 85 to 90. Now they are probably like 82 to 87. Still "JET FUEL."

Hoping this doesn't come true.

Mr. Foot said...

I was thinking the same thing E.H, and was going to look into those SST's. I heard 82-84 after K left because the storm sped up and did not disrupt temps as much as it would have if stayed slow. This storm would be coming in on a different angle, similar to Betsy or 1947 storm, so would not hit the same areas of water K did. Although rigs damaged and repaired after Ivan and Dennis would be blasted again, sending us into a worldwide energy crisis.

The GFDL posted 124 kt winds at 950 mb, so at ground level (1000 mb) we'd have to knock off 10 mph for a 133 mph storm, still a Cat 4 tho.

Mr. Foot said...

Yep, overall temps still 85-87. And SE of Florida they are 87-89, so conditions are ripe once again. The high sitting over us will act as a conveyor belt sending storms into the Gulf willy-nilly.

Terpboy said...

wow

Bob said...

I'm hoping the BAMM track is the most west this one might take. One of the funkier "out into the Atlantic" ones would work too!

Mr. Foot said...

E.H. I posted a link for current G.O.M. SST's, seems they are still plenty warm despite K.

I am getting that sinking foreboding feeling that we are in for a rough September.

E.H. Boston said...

Yikes, TD 15 has already developed off the southeast coast.

PS...For some strange reason, I have a similar foreboding feeling that this is going to be a rough/snowy/very cold winter too, and its not wishful thinking either.

No more landfalls...

Frank said...

Looks like another depression off of Florida. Not good.