Foot's Forecast | Weather Intelligence

AN EARLY CHRISTMAS PRESENT:

A NORMAL WEEK AHEAD

THE QUICK FORECAST..

1. No big storms next week, just cold weather

2. Xmas week...mix of cold/warm, some rain/snow

3. January disappoints with above-normal temps

For those of you who did not get the delay or closing you hoped, at least it is a "payday Friday" for many of us. Considering that the holiday vacation time is fast approaching, it is comforting to know that the Northeast will have a quiet week coming up. With people making travel and shopping plans, kids off the wall, parents getting frazzled, teachers ready for a break...at least the weather will not throw a monkey wrench in the calendar between now and next Friday. The GFS (Global Forecast System) map shown above is usually the forecast model of choice for the NWS, and the next storm progged for Sunday afternoon looks to skirt along the southern Mid-Atlantic. Following that, a period of below normal temperatures will set in for remainder of next week leading up to Christmas.

SO WHAT HAPPENED TO THE STORM?

Blame the big time changeover to rain on simple physics. Counter-clockwise air rotating around the Low pressure center as it moved north along the I-95 corridor pulled in much warmer, moist air from the Atlantic. In fact, water temperatures along the NJ coast, Long Island and New England are above normal, while coastal areas along the DelMarVa and the Carolinas are below normal. This may be a factor behind the sharp temperature contrast shown above as the storm pulled north...southern and central Jersey had a nearly a 30 degree rise in temperature over 24 hours! I did not forecast for the I-95 cities in this storm because it looked clear from the beginning they would get more rain than snow. Philadelphia was the exception as they received snow where rain was expected first. My call for schools was off somewhat or at least reversed as I expected some closings and instead we had early dismissals. The graphic below from Accuweather.com illustrates the second phase of our storm as it heads north, giving Boston a taste of Baltimore weather... snow, then a period sleet and freezing rain, then rain.