Sunday, January 21, 2007

MIDTERM MAYHEM...RIGHT ON TARGET


For those true old-time powderhounds of the Foot's Forecast community, this weekend hold special meaning for us in several regards. Number 1..it is the Dundalk Adventure Club's traditional weekend ski & snowboard trip to the fabulous mountain resort of Seven Springs in Somerset County, PA. That's the reason behind no posts since last week, so for all those who felt dissed or ignored, it's not you, I was simply busy skiing with students on fresh powder. Sorry, when duty calls, I have to respond, no matter how challenging or unpleasant the job may be (sike.) Now in all fairness to my frequent readers, I owe you an apology for the last post. Some had asked what happened to the storm update that was supposed to follow the maps I displayed 1/18. I can tell you it existed for a short time on my computer. During breakfast that morning as I am trying to feed my two little angels, and get the forecast uploaded, and make my wife's coffee, I must have erroneously hit some key and shazam! update deleted! It's been a maelstrom since this is my first time on a keyboard since Thurs AM. Sorry that got lost, but at least it wasn't for a real big storm.


Number 2...it is the second Anniversary of the Great New England Blizzard of January 2005, which I bet will always live in the memory of Mr. EH Boston as the best snowstorm of all time for his family.


Number 3...if measureable snowfall occurs at BWI airport in the next 24 hours, it will be my first forecast victory of the season. January 13 I targetedthe time period of the 22nd to the 25th for the first snow, and sure enough, here it comes.


A SPECIAL REPORT FOR BALTIMORE METRO AREA READERS

For those school districts with high schools scheduled to hold midterms this week, it appears the Monday 1/22 exam program will be disrupted in some manner. Before I depart Seven Springs this afternoon, I will post an overview of my projections for this minor but noticeable winter weather event. For all those outside the Baltimore Metro area, please excuse my lack of attentiveness to your weather situation, but time constraints prevent me from going into extensive detail on this storm. I can tell you that the eastern third of the country will reall go into the deep freeze following this storm and stay that way from the 23rd right on through to the 6th of February.


CAREER PROTECTION DISCLAIMER: Since my wife and I are blessed with wonderful jobs that truly we enjoy (I am not being sarcastic), in no way should any forecast, comment or statement about my employer (Baltimore County Schools) be misconstrued as critical in nature. I am merely providing analysis to educate readers in the affected areas of a weather event as to how difficult the decision making process can be for school officials. This is so when someone wants to complain about why school was open or closed due to the weather, we can give them reasonable answers grounded in scientific fact.

THAT HAVING BEEN SAID: The challenge of this forecast for those in the Baltimore Metro Schools and surrounding counties is that the northern fringe of this storm SHOULD be mostly snow. A light coating of snow up to perhaps 1.5" south of Towson will be easier to deal with than if freezing rain and sleet mix in, glaze over secondaries and sidewalks, then a light dusting of snow on top of that. From Towson on north, expect only light snow and flurries. Anyone north of Philly, sorry. You'll wait out this one.

The tricky part is going to be when the precip arrives and how long it stays. If it ends prior to 1AM, that gives road crews a few hours to prep main roads and start working on secondaries. If by 4AM, the snow is continuing, albeit light in nature, and temperatures in the mid 20's, the morning commute will be difficult and I would anticipate a delay. We have most of the elements in place..cold ground, a moistening atmosphere and a slow moving system that will graze the DC-Baltimore areas. The general rule is, farther south you are, the more you will receive. The unknown is if your precip will be mostly snow, or a mix of frozen fun that cuts down on snow accumulation but increases the mayhem. We are departing Seven Springs now as it is already snowing lightly so we are going to head out early. The next update this evening once I am home safely.

19 comments:

E.H. Boston said...

Oh was that a good snowstorm! Thats when I made it into Foot's Hall of Fame and was officially accepted as part of your forecast zone.

Was that a fun time or what!

2 years fly by like nothing.

E.H. Boston said...

Time flies when your having fun! I love this site.

Julee said...

SN*WING in Pikesville!!!!!!!!!!!
AT LAST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

bell86 said...

3:00 - Snowing in White Marsh & my father called from Dundalk that it is snowing there too! Finally, first snow that I have seen this winter.

kristine said...

We have ground cover here... YAHOOO!!!

Anonymous said...

I am so happy for all of you that are getting snow, I am north of Philly so I won't be seeing any this time round, but for you, may it continue during the night!!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

About 1/2 an inch of snow here. Just enough to cover the roads and sidewalks but not enough to cover the grass. A broom is all that you need to clean off the sidewalk. Still nice to see some snow although jst barely a measurable snow. Hope the next 2 weeks bring some "REAL" snow. Don't think there is much of a chance this week as Thursday potential looks like nada.

chip said...

CHIP -- I believe Baltimore County can count on a regular day tomorrow, don't you all think?

Mr. Foot said...

Thank you for posting your observations, I was just about to make a suggestion that everyone do that but I can see you are ahead of the game. (Alas, so now are the Colts)

I do want to point out to my Baltimore ara friends that in order for there to be snow on the ground here, my Adventure Club students had to go get it from Seven Springs and bring it back with us. It was tough hauling all that back on the bus I'll have you know.

Still snowing lightly in Dundalk with perhaps 1.25 inches. What's weird is that it looked like this storm was over, all the precip had moved to the East. Yet the radar shows it continuing to redevelop to our south and west. I don't know Chip..I'm going with a delay. I think the secondaries and sidewalks will be the reason, especially if this light icing continues through the night.

And to think that last Sunday I was transplanting bushes in my yard at 68 F

Anonymous said...

if it isnt bad enough that the Indy team won... we have to trudge through very little SNOW tomorrow to school.. Please Mr. Foot... give a gal some hope.... I needasnowday!!!

Julee said...

Mr. Foot,

Many thanks to you and your superb skiing students for the snowy Seven Springs sacrifice. Imported snow is better than no snow at all.
Hope the freezy mix I'm seeing here in Pikesville gets us an extra hour of sleep!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Freezy mix is the only hope. Snow totals are anemic at best. Here's to some Feb. snow,becaue as far as this 50 square mile metro area is concerned snow wise for the month of January, we are DONE! There is no snow in sight. The Thursday chance is almost off the table. LET'S HOPE FOR A SNOWY FEB.!

chip said...

Two hour delay for Baltimore County! Good call, Mr. Foot! Now, back to sleep...

E.H. Boston said...

Good for you guys down there.

And to think you guys have spent much of your winter in the 60's and 70's and with a flick of a switch, most of you have already passed Boston's winter snowfall of 0.8"

Now I need some snow.

Anonymous said...

Ok.. that was barely enough to whet the appetite.. I would like to shovel.. Bring on the white stuff in inches!! :)

Mr. Foot said...

Your welcome! The timing could not have been better. Now I can polish up my midterms and make them EXTRA special good. I'm sure my students will appreciate it greatly, don't you think?

By the way, that means I'll be off to school, reminding everyone that I am unable to post comments or read the site while there.

As for the next storm, there's some misgivings in the models for a Thursday-Friday event, but I remain skeptical about that. The problem now will be increasing amounts of cold which will overwhelm the pattern for next two weeks. But that's a good thing, because it will set the stage for the first real snowstorm in early to mid February. Ta ta for now.

Mr.B said...

.5" here ZZZZZZZ.... boaring, I want some real snow!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

No real snow for at least the next 3 weeks. Looks very cold and dry.

E.H. Boston said...

This winter season is surely getting more and more depressing by the day. Boston got a whopping 0.6" of snow yesterday and that nearly doubled our seasonal snowfall for the year.

Boston stands at 1.4" for the entire winter. Normally, we should be around 19" by now. (Jan 24)

This equals about 7% of average. To date. Say we continue this meager trend through the rest of the winter and we will see a whopping 2.8" of snow for the entire winter. This is totally unscientific.

However, I pretty much agree with it and am going to say that BOS will see 5-10" of snow during this winter.

NYC - 3-8" for the winter

PHI - 2-7" for the winter

DC - 3-8" for the winter

Hopefully I am wrong, but this is what it looks like to me.

Most places will not see more than 25% than normal snowfall. BOS usually gets about 41". 25% is about 10". Less than 10" is ~5" in my book and thats how I got it.

If we see over a foot (12") seasonal snowfall this winter. All you guys can personally attack me and say whatever.

I just don't think this is our year.

I have been posting on this site for 3 years now and I haven't encountered a more depressing 4 month period like this one weatherwise since I started posting. This cold and dry pattern is absolute MURDER.