Monday, February 15, 2010

PRESIDENTS' DAY POWDER!



8:20 PM MONDAY 2.15.2010  The Forecast Team is pleased to present our readers with the "Storm Data Zone." This contains specific before and after data regarding our snowfall forecasts, as well as links to use for independently verifying our results. Results from the Maryland western shore are posted for the February 9-10 Blizzard. Reports for the 4 previous storms as well as all other regions for which we forecasted will be posted this evening and tomorrow.

4:00 PM MONDAY 2.15.2010 We have good news for skiers and schools alike: If  shredding at your favorite local ski resort, then it is definitely a "big pow" day. If cringing in advance of the latest forecasts, no longer a need for that. We figured most of you would be pleased to hear that.

Despite the ominous spiral of surface and upper level low pressure, the dynamics of this approaching system are unique enough to spare much of the Mid-Atlantic from the high amounts of significant snow we projected in earlier forecasts. Accumulating snow is still on the docket into the evening, which may aggravate exhausted road & grounds crews. The silver lining? Potential for surprise a  "Big Kahuna" is diminished, finally. Only the Ohio Valley should see amounts near 6 inches. (Insert group sigh here)

FEATURED ZONE FORECASTS
Georgia-North Florida | Central Maryland | Eastern OhioCentral PA
Southeast PA (coming soon!)
(links to NWS Watch/Warning/Advisories inside each zone)

TIMING & IMPACTS
ARRIVAL As of 3:45 PM, light snow was reported across central Maryland and northern Virginia. Earlier update: Bands of moderate snow are moving through Virginia, and will reach the Mid-Atlantic by 3 PM today, and New York metro by 9 PM.

INTENSITY  Intermittent and increasing into the evening hours, then tapering by 10:00 PM when the trailing edge of several shortwaves should sweep through Maryland and Virginia. Moderate to heavy snow will continue in Pennsylvania and Ohio into early morning.

THE MID-ATLANTIC Precip has arrived as mostly snow, and after ending late tonight, strong winds will gust up to 30 mph across the region as the low centers depart northeast.

3:00 PM FINAL Storm Grade Totals (once published are not changed)
WV 3.5 Martinsburg | 1.5 Washington, DC | 2.25 BWI airport
MD 2.1 Maryland Science Center | 3.2 Towson | 1.5 Easton
PA 3.3 Lancaster | 4.0 Harrisburg | 4.6 State College| 3.7 Philadelphia

WILL IT BE RIGHT OR BUST? The team is assembling a quick overview of ideas on what would cause the forecast to verify, or what would cause it to fail. This will be posted in the Winter Stormcast Zone at 3:00 PM. This will be used to support or reject our forecast hypothesis. Let the chips fall where they may.

THE SOUTHERN STATES Details on storm impacts for the Mid-South is being provided by our new team member Daniel Ross, a meteorology student at Georgia Tech, and Lead Forecaster for the Georgia-North Florida Zone. Welcome Daniel to the team!

SEND THE SNOW TO VANCOUVER! Well we certainly are trying. The strength of a high pressure ridge in the West is keeping the storm track, and a subsequent warm moisture flow off the Pacific right along the Coast Range of British Columbia. We're watching the Pacific North American Index for signs of when the ridge will weaken and allow a colder flow to improve ski conditions at Whistler, Grouse and Cypress mountains. Until then, enjoy our daily updates and media features in the Vancouver 2010 Zone, including a daily medal count, the real story behind Whistler-Blackcomb and inspirational video spots.

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