Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Thursday, 27 October
11:15 AM EDT

Rina is now a Tropical Storm, with a path that will steer it away from the U.S.

Snow will fall from Pennsylvania into Maine today and tonight. This system will move quickly northeast, with precipitation coming to an end pre-dawn Friday morning.

A second storm system will move into New Mexico bringing moderate snow before turning into a rain/thunderstorm event later today across the Southern Plains.

The system then moves eastward through the Deep South before running into the cold air mass bringing the possibility of light snows to parts of the Central Appalachians Friday evening.

Rains will spread into the Pacific Northwest on Friday.

Wednesday, 26 October
3:05 PM EDT

Rina has weakened to a Cat 1, and several disturbances are moving across the country. The most northern will move through the Mid-Mississippi Valley today, and quickly race off into the upper Mid-Atlantic by Thursday evening. The southernmost aspect of this of this upper trough is already bringing impacts to the Central Rockies with moderate to heavy snow.
As the system heads South into the southern High Plains, it will change to rain.

No confusion in Cozumel

7:00 PM EDT 10/25/11 | Tourists and residents in places like Cozumel, Mexico are now facing what could be by Thursday morning a full-on assault from nearly-Category 3 Hurricane Rina. Within 36 hours, the storm may be generating sustained winds of 120 mph or greater. If you have family or colleagues along the Mexico's Yucatan coast, we urge serious consideration of an early evacuation based on current projections. Several cruise lines have already made significant route changes due to the hurricane. There's simply no good reason to jeopardize your life and family to squeeze in one more day, catch the surf or "get a front row seat."

In addition to Rina, a new disturbance heading west near Venezuela will make for an interesting forecast situation by weeks' end. The new disturbance, denoted as 97L, is noted with a 30% chance of development. The challenge facing forecasters and Caribbean residents alike is sorting out what may happen if both storms begin to interact come Friday as they approach each other from opposite directions. (link: track guidance from CSU)

WHAT IS NEXT? The press of a cold front from the Southeast on Thursday will likely confound the forecast situation further, as shown in this NOAA map from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Hurricane Rina is expected to travel north-northwest and may strike or barely graze the Yucatan peninsula, then curve east toward the tip of Cuba. Invest 97L in the next 5 days is expected to curve northwest toward Jamaica. It is not unreasonable to expect some interaction between the two storms. This unusual circumstance by itself is not cause for alarm, both forecasters and computer models may have difficulty discerning an outcome.

WHO IS AT RISK? Interests and those traveling in the area, including the Belize - Mexico coast, Jamaica, Cuba, the Island of Hispaniola and South Florida, should closely monitor this variable situation over the next several days. If governments outside the U.S. issue watches or warnings, we will repost that information here for our readers. (Forecasters Foot, Jason M. and the Tropical Team)


Julie Ray Smith said...

Did someone mention a snowflake :-D

Mark Issac said...

Your titles are boring