Monday, October 24, 2011

A River Runs Through It
- 1992 film starring Brad Pitt and Craig Sheiffer

8:00 PM EDT 10/24/11 Those along the Florida coast and the interior Southeast should closely monitor the developments with Hurricane Rina. 
On-going updates and analysis of NHC statements are posted in our Tropical  Zone. The National Hurricance Center expects Rina to reach Category 3 status by TuesdayWere Rina to make a run for Florida, our forecast zones to be impacted would include Central Florida, led by Forecaster Matt Bolton, as well as South Florida & The Keys, led by Meteorologist Randall J. and Forecaster Amanda Brioche.  

(EARLIER UPDATE AS OF 10:00 AM EDT 10/24/11) Storms developing in this region of the Caribbean have a history of rapid intensification due to high oceanic heat content and favorable upper level conditions. In the past 20 years, several notable storms have intensified their way into the history books, and have had their named expunged from lists of future hurricanes. Examples include:

Hurricane Wilma, Oct. 2005
In late October 2005, Wilma exploded from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in 24 hours before charging across southwestern Florida as Category 3 hurricane on October 24. (NOAA National Climate Data Center Report). In September 1988, before making landfall in the Yucatan, Gilbert produced what some data indicates was the highest ever recorded sustained winds in an Atlantic basin hurricane: Clocked at 185 mph with gusts above 200 mph. (Source: NOAA / HPC and NCEP)

THE LA NINA / "ATMOSPHERIC RIVER" CONNECTION As members of our team learned in a Friday 10/21/11 visit with NOAA scientists at University of Maryland-College Park, there are occasional "river channels" of moisture that set up in the mid-levels of the atmosphere from time to time. (NOAA Research Report) A good couple dozen million folks in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast need no more reminders of what these atmospheric rivers wreaked on their lives in August and September 2011. It is interesting to note that Wilma, Gilbert and the Irene-Lee period occurred when La Nina readings from the Pacific were observed to be in similar range over a three-month period.

A WINTER STORM CONNECTION Some readers are "seasoned" enough to remember the January 6-9, 1996 blizzard on the East Coast (wikipedia). Despite this being among the few high-impact winter weather events of that season, it also occurred in a time period of rapid transition in the Pacific from the previous year's El Nino to the strengthening La Nina of the winter that followed. (See NOAA CPC Special Report) Hmmm...sounds a whole lot like 2011 to us. Should you run through the halls and burst into the Principal's office screaming, "Foot's calling for a blizzard!!" Um, no. Please stay calm, it is only October. Perhaps you can consider scientific alteratives:

THE LONG RANGE DATA SOLUTION: We are saying those with interest in understanding how to follow NOAA data about La Nina, Atmospheric Rivers, should begin familiarizing with parameters that our team and many climate scientists use to identify possible patterns: The Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific-North American Index, (our usual group) and new data points including Total Precipitable Water.

That is, unless you would rather learn about atmospheric rivers up close and personal from the front seat of your car... (Youtube video from Irene in Vermont).

(Forecast Advisors Foot, Lear and Krichinsky)

1 comment:

Mark Issac said...

Wait so the Northern Light's can create cold and snowy weather??