Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Bring on Spring?

Submitted by a reader to our Central Maryland Team
6:00 AM EST 2/22/12 After a stormy winter of severe weather thus far in the South, at least we have calm conditions for much of the U.S. on this Ash Wednesday. Readers and flowers alike in the North are befuddled as to what climate patterns behold heading into March. As recent snowcover retreats North, pre-Spring temperatures in the 60s and 70s return for much of the eastern U.S.  

Severe storms along the coast? Our Severe Weather Team has been closely watching outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center suggesting an increasing risk of dangerous thunderstorm activity Thursday into Friday along the southeast coast. We encourage you to check back each day this week for additional details in the event this potential becomes more serious.    

Although Hope Springs Eternal, the appearances of winter in an early demise can be deceiving, in a La Nina-influenced pattern. A fast moving cold front sweeping across the country on Thursday and to the east coast by Friday will shock many of us back into a winter reality. Already, the next system in the Pacific Northwest is producing High Wind Warnings in Washington State as observed noted by Forecaster Mark in a post on his Tri-Cities Weather page.

Long range signals So we ask, how do you deal with this "weather whip-lash" of warm then cold and wintry conditions followed by warmth again? Perhaps some advance information about March would help you cope, from our Long Range Team:
  • Late February to early MarchWe see ridging over the Southern Plains, and troughing over the Pacific Northwest and Northeast coasts. This would support a drier pattern in Texas and the south into next week as shown above.
  • Early to mid-March: Long range climate teleconnections and the 6-10 day NOAA outlook suggest a deeper western U.S. trough, which should lead to a ridge in the central and eastern U.S. This arrangement would produce a series of storms ejecting toward the east, mixed in between periods of warmth. 
Chances for snow? As we like to say on the team, those in the Mid-Atlantic may be looking for snow in all the wrong places. If you want the "best chance" for powder, you have to visit the "traditional places" nowadays, such as Dallas, Atlanta or Richmond. You want a blizzard in Baltimore? Sorry, that's so 2010. ;-)

(Forecaster Foot and Long Range Coordinator Nic Roberson)   

1 comment:

ravensbbr said...

barring anything crazy, see ya'll next November, hopefully. Or in the event of anything tropical, i'll pop back in.

Here's to next year!!! :-P