Friday, August 24, 2012

All Lottery Numbers Look Good,
Until The Drawing.

Compilation of images from the Tropical Zone on Facebook
7:30 PM EDT 8/24 (Tropical Advisor Ed Q.) Confidence is growing where Isaac might make landfall but uncertainty still remains due to interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. It's a safe bet at this time the eventual specific points of landfall are still up on the air until Isaac crosses these areas. Forecast modeling continues to flip flop at this time and will continue to do so for the next day or so. 

AT LAST REPORT: Isaac has strengthened a little more at this hour. Winds are now 65 mph and his central pressure is 994 mb. Currently Isaac is positioned about 100 miles south-southeast of Port-au-Prince Haiti and about 300 miles southeast of Guantanamo Cuba. Currently located at 17.2 North 71.9 West he continues heading Northwest now at 16 mph. Looks like Haiti is going to see some strong winds and heavy rains as the night goes on as the center will make landfall there.

Do you recall the exploits of Tropical Storm Debby back in June this year? It was a perfect example of just how difficult it is to forecast a tropical system. 
  • Modeling on June 23 2012 had Debby making landfall in Texas. On June 24 Debby was forecast to impact Louisiana, and later the same day forecast took her to the western Panhandle of Florida. 
  • On June 25 the forecast track shifted once again this time taking Debby to the West coast of Florida's upper peninsula where she finally made landfall near Steinhatchee. 
  • My point here is, even though we have good ideas of where a storm may go, until it makes landfall anything can happen. It's kind of like the lottery; all the numbers are good until the drawing.
In commemoration of the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew's 1992 landfall in South Florida, a video summary with statistics and other interesting information can be found at this link to the National Weather Service Southern Region. At least we're not facing that kind of a situation this go around. 

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