Sunday, December 2, 2012

What About Winter?
An overview of our season forecast the Winter Stormcast Team 

Current US / Canadian snowcover. 


SYNOPSIS OF OUR WINTER FORECAST 
as of DEC 2, 2012

12:15 PM EST 12/2/12 Our earlier statements from November 2, 2012: 
"We expect November temperatures to end how they started: Below normal heading into December. This shift back to cold by Thanksgiving should be accompanied by a period of potentially high impact winter weather in the Eastern U.S. by mid December, followed by a warmup into January for those same areas." 
"The cancellation of an expected El Nino this season in the central Equatorial Pacific should lead to significantly above-normal temperatures in January 2013 for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. In short, if you are going to plan a ski trip east of the Mississippi, schedule it for the next 30 days. 
If your company or organization wants to avoid any surprises this season, we invite you to consider our winter weather intelligence services."

SUMMARY OF EXPECTED WEATHER
WINTER 2012-2013 as of December 1, 2012

  • Storms As a result of the influence Hurricane Sandy and the Nov 7-8 Winter Storm had on upper level atmospheric interactions in the Northern Hemisphere, we expect one or more large scale, high impact winter weather events in the Eastern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic between November 25 and December 20.
  • Temps A period of much-below normal temperatures from late November to early January, similar to the Dec 1989 cold wave, followed by a significant warm period in the East for January 2013, ending with a brief return to cold, stormy weather by mid-February.*
  • Snow  Near- to below-normal snowfall east and south of I-81, above normal snowfall for the Great Lakes, Midwest, Ohio Valley and New England.
  • Ice  One or more significant storms in the eastern U.S. in Dec 2012 & Feb 2013.
  • Rain A wetter winter than in 2011-12 for much of the eastern U.S., and more arid for the western U.S.
CONCLUSION & WHY THE CONCERN?


The recent atmospheric influence of Hurricane Sandy suggests a continuation of  50-60 day "Long Range Cycle" which has been hypothesized by others as the driver for the 2-years running frequency of high impact events across North America. The significant build-up of snow cover in Canada this early in the season also increases probability of one major inland-to-coastal event in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast similar to the January 26, 2011 "snow monsoon" storm. 

For storm-weary residents, companies and municipalities alike on the U.S. East coast, we believe there will be a 10-day period of calm to allow for regrouping and planning for winter from November 8 to 18. However, following that time, we urge you to consider preparing for a period that for some, may deliver 80% of your winter weather in a 2-3 week time frame. 

*Temperature projections derived from our interpretation of NOAA monthly forecasts for Dec-Jan-Feb by the Climate Forecast System 2. 

Review our earlier "Featured Articles" which led up to this official statement.

FEATURED ARTICLES 

Why some areas of the Eastern U.S. face a potentially high impact period of winter weather in a short time frame between Thanksgiving and Christmas.  
- By CEO & Lead Advisor Rich Foot, Dundalk, Maryland

"Heading Beyond Halloween" - October 24, 2012
While snow is possible for some areas in aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, we are focusing more on the long range pattern heading toward Halloween, and into November, as outlined in our look ahead to early next month. 
-By Long Range Coordinator Nic Roberson of High Point, North Carolina

"But Your Kids Are Gonna Love It." - October 12, 2012
How tracking changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation can have a major impact on the direction, intensity and precipitation type of winter storms in the Eastern U.S. 
By Science Teacher / Forecaster Jason Isaacs of our Metro Atlanta & North Georgia Team. 

An assessment of current and projected trends with El Nino as compared to previous years and what thay may portend for the Eastern U.S. this winter, now available in this special report. By Forecaster Mike Natoli at the University of Maryland, College Park.

RECENT ARTICLES


AFFILIATE CONTENT 



WHAT WE (AND THEY) SAID WHEN... IN 2011

"Significant banding will occur with this second system, 
with snowfall reaching a rate up to 3, or more, inches per hour
 Timing of this event will put snowfall during the major metro rush hour."
 12:00 PM 1/26/2011 in "Weather whiplash has arrived."

"After an unexpected blast of snow hit the Baltimore area Wednesday AM, 
residents who had to shovel out a few inches brace for round two."
6:45 PM 1/26/2011 WJZ-13: "Wintry Mix Blasts Through Maryland" 



Synopsis: We predicted more than a few days ahead that our readers 
would get "slightly more" than what others were forecasting at the time. 

3 comments:

NeedaSnowday said...

Downright lovely December day... balmy and depressing!

Ravens choked and any threat of snow in area just seems bleak......

::sigh::

ravensbbr said...

I hear ya, Needy.

Not sure if everyone has moved on from FF or if there's just nothing weather-wise to talk about, hence the lack of everyone else (Andy, BioPat, Julee, Terpguy, etc.)

Tiggerkat said...

WOULD LOVE TO SEE THIS UPDATED!

=P