Sunday, January 27, 2013


"When Will 'Then' Be 'Now' ??  "Soon..."
- Rick Moranis in a 1987 science fiction comedy.

DISRUPTIVE ICE EVENT DEVELOPING ACROSS 
MID-ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF MONDAY 

Readers in our Forecast Zones experiencing winter weather impacts: 

11:30 PM EST 1/27 | Is It Coming Early? Forecaster Andrew Barney, Foot's Forecast | Central Pennsylvania & Winter Stormcast Team.




OVERVIEW: Our current winter storm, associated with a charging warm front pushing up through the Mid-Atlantic, could potentially arrive an hour or two early. Current radar images suggest the precipitation moving more quickly than anticipated, with ground observations still not depicting a clear picture of what is happening at the surface. 


TEMPS: Temperatures across the region should stay cold enough to have the potential impacts of a quicker moving storm affect our region. With colder air still locked in place overnight, there is the chance for a bit more frozen precipitation to fall before the anticipated changeover on Monday morning. 


TIMING: Check the attached image, courtesy of Penn State's "E-Wall" - it shows radar current as of 11:15pm EST. It clearly shows a rapidly advancing system, a few hours ahead of its forecast - most regions that are now under radar-indicated precipitation were not forecasted to receive anything before midnight! 

It is likely that the leading edges of this storm will have its precipitation evaporate before reaching the surface - a phenomenon called "virga". Due to this, we are looking for local reports from our readers - please post them in the comments section below as always! 

(Forecaster & PA State Team Leader Andrew B.)


A February 2007 ice storm crippled the Mid-Atlantic for several days.
It is hoped this situation will not be as significant.

1:30 PM EST 1/27/13 | Mid-Atlantic Team: Will it get THIS bad? Those who have fond memories of the Feb 2007 Ice Storm know that event crept up on us like a thief in the night. Are we heading into a repeat of those nerve-wracking days? The current NWS watches and warnings as shown below can be viewed via this link to the NWS Eastern Regional Headquarters. Our Southeast Team, led by the Metro Atlanta page on Facebook, is preparing for a similarly disruptive winter weather AND severe weather situation for the week ahead. Additional updates for the Mid-Atlantic situation will be posted on our Winter Stormcast page.





In February 2007, computer models began showing in the long range a heavy snow event for the metro areas, and lesser impacts north and west. Then as the event unfolded -- the I-95 corridor was smacked with a multi-day ice storm, while PA and the Blue Ridge region was inundated by unexpected heavy snow. You can check our forecasts from the week of 2/12/2007 for comparison to this event.




Our Long Range Team has been suspecting for some time we would be heading into an icy pattern come February, as noted on this page. This looks to become a reality as we approach this upcoming situation. The next possibility for this will present by Monday morning in portions of the Mid-Atlantic, followed by a brief warm-up going into the next few days.

Check back late this afternoon for additional updates on this increasing potential for both the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast.

(Forecasters Foot, Isaacs, Jackson, Fasnacht, Mitchell, Meehan) 

6 comments:

NeedaSnowday said...

Andy... lil help..

Going to RAVENS pep rally tomorrow morning... rain? ice?

BioPat said...

Ohhh, that could be a close call. My daughter wants to go as well, but we have her on hold until we see the AM weather. 21 year old's don't get it; on ice you don't move anywhere safely.

ravensbbr said...

Ice sucks. Waiting to hear list of closings, DC feds have already packed it in...

Mike Cheuvront said...

Really depressed after looking at the 6pm runs of the GFS and then looked at the outlook for the (NAO). Not looking good at all for a nice snow storm.If GFS is right,we will not have a nice snow thru almost Mid FEB! Time is running out!

ravensbbr said...

Unfortunately, I agree with your assessment, Mike. Does look thataway...

Andy, Need, Pat, concurrence?

Raisa Costa said...

Really? Then it will be tough for me to stay there for a temporary period. My internship project needs to be complete from there. Okay, I will be using weather shop for life then.