Monday, March 4, 2013

"Just When You Thought It Was Safe..."
- Jaws



8:00 PM EST 3/4 (Winter Stormcast Team) While many readers in the Mid-Atlantic this winter have sad watching in either dismay or glee as snowstorms affect other regions, this time, the sharks have come back to feed. If you want a snow-fueled frenzy, we have good news, and if falling back into winter's clutches is your worst fear, then prepare for bad news. 

major winter storm is expected to bear down on much of the mid-Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. Many areas from Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey could experience heavy snow from this system. Our preliminary snowfall map for the region as follows:




SNOW FACTORS: Given that it is late in the season there are many factors that could affect accumulations. 
  • SUN ANGLE: Since we are nearing the start of Spring, the angle of direct sunlight is increasing with each passing day. This could limit snowfall accumulations during the day. Areas that see higher snow rates however should not see this as an issue as the snow rates will overcome any melting from the sun. Additionally, sun angle also influences road temperatures (believe it or not) as solar radiation passes through the cloud layer.


  • TIMING: The time of day is also an issue as it is easier for the snow to start accumulation overnight than during the day. The current forecast puts this system starting Tuesday night so that should not be an issue, but the timing is not set in stone and snow could start as soon as Tuesday afternoon in some locations. 

PRELIMINARY AMOUNTS: The snow could come down heavy at times, especially across central Maryland where snowfall rates could reach 2-3” per hour at times. Many metro areas shown on our map could see anywhere from 4 to 8 inches with higher amounts along I-81. Below is a list of snowfall accumulations expected per city:

Washington D.C.: 4-8” | Baltimore, MD: 4-8” | Annapolis, MD: 4-8”
Hagerstown, MD: 8-12” | Martinsburg, WV: 8-12” | Pittsburgh, PA: 4-6”
Harrisburg, PA: 4-8” | Philadelphia, PA: 4-8”
Atlantic City, NJ: 2-4" | Dover, DE: 2-4” | Ocean City, MD: Mainly rain

SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITY: If your company or organization would like to benefit from being prominently featured on our pages, especially ones that routinely reach over 80,000 people across the region, consider being a team sponsor during this storm! Details at this link to the previous story or contact us directly at winter@footsforecast.org

Winter Stormcast Team
(Winter Stormcast Director Zachary F., Michael N., Advisor Rich F., Connor M., Meteorologist Alex D., Greg J., Jason M.)

9 comments:

ravensbbr said...

Duh nuh, Dun nuh, Duh nuh nuh nuh nuh nuh...

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Got 2 feet of snow? Latest NAM does for Central MD to the PA border

kklovestheravens said...

Is the NAM accurate now that we are 24 hrs out? How is harford county shaping up in your opinion?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

NAM is just one model but it is in it's "wheelhouse". It does have support from the GFS to some extent from 18Z. If I were to forecast for Harford County based on the NAM alone I would say 15-20 inches. Let's see what the rest of the runs do, but if they are anything like the NAM this will be a 1-2 foot storm regionwide west of the Bay.

ravensbbr said...

Justin Berk is of the opinion that the GFS model is wrong , coming in just too warm and that dynamic cooling will be in full effect... thoughts?

kklovestheravens said...

Thanks for the info! Seems like all of the media outlets are now at a consensus of 4-8inches, but that just seems awful low to me. Sounds like, from what you are saying, that everything is coming together to make this "one to remember".

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

SREFs came in at 16 inches area wide. NAM is epic at 18-24 inches. GFS 10-15 generally. Blend them all together and 12-18 inches area-wide is the most reasonable call based on the current data.

Unknown said...

What about Baltimore City?

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

8-12 inches in Baltimore City. Warm pavement, more compaction. Light rain changing to heavy snow.