Sunday, February 1, 2015

Kahuna Bachata?

Kahuna Bachata?

  • WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, WATCHES AND WARNINGS STRETCH NEARLY 2,000 MILES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
  • NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES RETURN IN STORM'S WAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT - AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT


KAHUNA = In Hawaiian culture, a medicine man, sorcerer, priest or person of preeminence. On this site, a term first used in 2004 to describe a potentially significant winter storm that could produce 6-12" or more of snow over a large area.

BACHATA =  A form of music and dance with origins in the neighborhoods of the Dominican Republic. The genre is usually romantic and prevalent with tales of heartbreak and sadness.  In the FF Team, Bachata refers to a winter storm not delivering the expected outcome for an area, in contrast to a bust for a large scale under-performing storm. 

7:31 AM 2/1 – FINAL MAP & PROJECTIONS (Forecaster Mike Natoli, Advisor Foot and the Winter Stormcast Team) 

Saturday sure felt like winter, and now right on schedule, the next winter weather event is charging across the country. Haven't seen the NWS national advisory map? Better take a look. It's a sight to behold. Although sections of the Mid-Atlantic may not seem significant impact, many other areas of the country most definitely will, affecting inter-state commerce, schools, airlines and transportation.






CURRENTLY 
Winter Storm Watches and Warnings now stretch almost 2,000 miles from Owls Head Island in Down East Maine clear across to Hog country in Oshkosh, Nebraska! But unfortunately for the Mid-Atlantic Powderhounds, the "Kahuna" scenario is very unlikely at this point. It would also not be accurate to deem the system "a bust" 24 hours in advance seeing that it has not yet arrived. Please see our "bust scenarios" below for reference.




With consensus in the computer guidance and the storm moving through the Central Plains, by tonight, we expect a Low pressure center to move north of the I-95 corridor and usher warm air into the southern and central mid-Atlantic. For those hosting SuperBowl events and for students and teachers alike: Best not to stay up real late watching the radar then mosey home thinking you'll get Monday off to rest up.

SYNOPSIS & TIMING – A low pressure will move into the region from the west, but most likely take a track just north of us. Some wintry precipitation is possible for locations closer to the Mason-Dixon Line. South of BWI, we generally expect mainly rain.






  • Overnight into Sunday, precipitation will extend through the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys before reaching the Mid-Atlantic and eastern metro areas around Noon
  • Rain is expected in the South with mixed snow, sleet, and ice for the northern counties late Sunday evening between 9 PM and 2 AM. 
  • By 3 AM Monday, we expect much of the southern I-95 corridor region will have warmed enough to see plain rain, with that continuing until noon. 
  • Monday afternoon, the cold front plows through and temperatures drop rapidly Some flakes could fly in a quick burst Monday mid afternoon., which might be an early treat for the Spring-a-lings, but Winter warriors will be pounding their fist in defiance.
BUST SCENARIOS – There is still some uncertainty with this system, as with every large scale weather system that covers thousands of square mile. If we pretended there wasn’t uncertainty with this, we would be lying. Here is what could go wrong with the forecast: 
  • "Circle of Ice" (25%): If we get a slightly southerly track of the system, and a fresh feed of cold air on subfreezing ground temperatures, we could have a snowy and icy travel disaster Monday morning. Remember Sunday morning the 18th? Add in an inch or two of snow, and travel could become very hazardous.  
  • "Blame it on the Rain" (25%): Conversely, a slightly northerly track of the low from what we expect would surge most of the region well above freezing before the precipitation arrives, and keep us as all rain with little to no freezing precipitation anywhere in Maryland.
  • "Hakuna Matata" (0.01%): For those gaming to see "Scenario D" as in no storm at all or zero impact to the area, it is highly improbable areas with at least a winter weather advisory will escape effects from this system.


IS THAT IT? Do we just say goodbye to winter now? Hardly our fellow fractual friends! The snowiest month of the year starts tomorrow. Need we go on and on about how many of the most notable and memorable snowstorms occurred in February? If you need a trip down a powder-filled memory lane, be sure to revisit Forecaster Dakota's famous on site video in the raging blizzard from our February 2010 days of lore. Yes that was 5 years ago. No, you are not getting older, just better! 

But, will there be another storm? 

Like Captain Picard said in that famous scene of Star Trek: First Contact, "Plenty of letters left in the Alphabet."

(Forecasters Mike Natoli, Connor M., Jason M., Troy A., Jolene W., Tyler R., Mintong N., Advisors Keith K,, R. Foot, Pete W.)


47 comments:

kristia35 said...

2/5-6 and 2/10 look interesting. Lets hope for a Kahunaversary!

Westsidehideaway said...

Starting to cloud up here in West Bmore. I got a roaster chicken marinating in spices and planning on cooking it in the terra cotta pot. Making home made bread to. What does this have to do with the weather? Nothing except I am looking forward to a quiet day, looking out the window while cooking it up and waiting to see what falls out of the sky. Go Seahawks.

BioPat said...

Sounds good Westside! I'm still battling the remnants of a cold now with laryngitis to boot. I'm going to be sucking down Chinese ginger tea to try and push this thing out of my system.
Weather today definitely suggesting stay indoors don't venture out, at least yesterday we had sun which enabled me to say good bye to a good friend at his Memorial Mass and Irish Wake.
Still unsure about the backside snow just depends on how far south this will come and will the cold be in place. The rest of the week bears watching but I'm still betting on the possibilities for next week.

NeedaSnowday said...

Kristia! Yea, been watching the 5/6th for a while now ....and I had a storm penciled in for the 10th since it is the annual Orlando field trip... How we lookin'? 👍

I am thinking the appropriate song for this morning is ZZ Top's CHEAP SUNGLASSES,... Sunshine streaming down making it lovely and bright outside!😎

kristia35 said...

Signal is there and has been for a while. Don't worry, plenty of time for it to skunk us again. I cant let myself get too excited anymore. Maybe if I'm negative about it, then it will happen!

kyleZ said...

Why there's a winter weather advisory I'll never know it's 40 degrees and bright sunny in harford really stupid to put out these things for rain.

Unknown said...

Try spending 15,000 on a kubota plow and have it sit around. Now that's disappointing!

Westsidehideaway said...

It's 37 degrees here in West Bmore. Radar shows it coming and starting as snow. But not so sure about that with it being that warm.

Unknown said...

Okay people, time for a little forecast update. The kahuna all you MD powderhounds have been craving is BACK ON! A secondary low is developing over the Kentucky/Tennessee area, just as the models were predicting would happen a few days ago, before abandoning the idea. Dry air is in place stalling the primary low, which should allow for a southern shift thanks to the aforementioned low trying to form over TN. This will allow more cold air to flow in, putting MD right back in the sweet spot! If this were to happen, you can take that 6-12" swath over Pennsylvania and shove it about 200 miles south! Faith in the flakes people!

Unknown said...

Foot's, is Tom's comment legit? Talk about a hail mary!

Unknown said...

Justin Berk, Meteorologist:" the original Low might be weakening and if a secondary tries to form it could shift the overall track south/colder." I might be crazy, but maybe my wishcast will come true!

kyleZ said...

It's sunny and 40 so I don't think your wish will come true but I hope it does we need a good storm.

Unknown said...

It's cloudy and 35 here

Westsidehideaway said...

40 and partly sunny in West Baltimore at 2:45pm Sunday. We are a long way from any snow here it seems.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Rain boots have been pulled out of the closet and snow blower stashed behind some boxes. This storm has nothing going for it at our latitude if you like snow.

While I crave white powder more than Gary Busey at a Charlie Sheen going away to rehab party,I also understand that I am currently sitting at the table with a bunch of monks during the annual fast at a remote mountain abbey. I ain't getting any. After not getting any for an extended period of time one gets lonely and dreams.

Dreams can come true if you are a hopeless romantic like me. I had a vision of the most beautiful woman I have ever seen, and that is the 600lb bearded lady in a thong!

Where did I see her, or a least catch a whiff of that sweet sweet temptress? Where do you ask? Just where or when? The answer my friends is in the NAO. Not the weak transient nonsense that was popping up around this rainstorm, but the best we have seen in a long time.

Sunday February 9th just in time for Valentines Day! Will we be kissed by a mountain of WHITE LOVE, TIME WILL TELL! If the big gal sets up the block, get ready for some fun!

Westsidehideaway said...

I'll have what Andy is on right now. Whatever it is it has got to be better that that bottle of Chianti I am about to uncork.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

TOM: NO, JUSTIN CURTIS: I WISH
I took sometime today to look at the lay of the land. Time I have not had lately. This week will be cold. Chance of a flash refreeze Monday night and snow showers that could cause some problems, another nuisance 1-3 possible Thursday, and all eyes on next Sunday.

NeedaSnowday said...

Tom ::: in a calm voice ::: step away from the ledge ....

Unknown said...

ITS GONNA HAPPEN

kristia35 said...

Hopefully she has enough room in her thong to squeeze in the right trough

Unknown said...

Andy- any possibility of wraparound snow Monday night?

Flame said...

Winter of shattered dreams. Everytime something looks great, and then boom, track away from us. Fairly certain that a footer will dump on us when we expect it the least.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Tom,

I HOPE it does. I see no evidence of that happening. That goes agasint the entire universe of reliable weatehr data and analysis. Anything can happen in the world of weather as we are all aware. I only focus on climatology and data that is supported by evidence. To this point I see no evidence of that outcome or any reliable data to support it. Since the support for that outcome is lacking I cannot say with the same conviction that you have that it's gonna happen. I can say with conviction that it is not impossible, but highly improbable and extremely unlikely. BUT, if you are right I get my snow so I am cheering for YOU! It may be akin to rooting for a team of Walmart Greeters going against a team of active duty Navy SEALS in a triathlon and mixed marshal arts tournament, but if the underdog pulls the upset I won't be disappointed and extremely impressed.

Westsidehideaway said...

Andy is On Fire with the analogies tonight.

Foot's Forecast said...

Mr. Curtis: The team has an old rule that has served us well for many years.

It goes back to the bad old pre-internet days of hanging those giant facsimile chart printouts on the walls of the Penn State Weather Center at 6th floor Walker Bldg at 4:30 AM on a cold Monday in winter.

Back when the NAM was the ETA, and the model printout were NAFAX/DIFAX.

Back when we had to hang up all the charts in order by day and atmospheric level, SFC, 850, 700, 500, 300, 200. Then analyze, then get out an little known technique that was once the staple of forecasters:

Pencil and Paper.

And actually write (like with our hand) a forecast. Even had to draw little L's and things on the map.

Got quiet colorful at times. And it was in those down-to-earth authentic moments we came face to face with the reality of situations like these.

"The Primary Low Stays Stronger Longer." In doing so it reduces the ability of a secondary to form when all the surface and mid-level flow is ripping from SE to NW.

Pressure falls bear out this reality: A broad area of Low pressure encompasses the Southeast as is customary in areas to the east of a large, developing mid-latitude cyclone. The rapid south to north flow is not conducive to permit secondary low formation, no matter how much all us Powderhounds want to wish it into being.



Foot's Forecast said...

Link to 2-hour pressure falls:
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getanalysis.cgi?region=us&time=current&field=pres2h

Unknown said...

Thanks for the good info foot's team. You guys are great.

ravensbbr said...

Doubles of whatever Tom is having all around, barkeep! Love it! :-)

I was there yesterday. Then had my powderhound dreams lose power and run into the mountainside, pick themselves up and reassemble, only to crash it into the cliff again.

So here's to reverse psychology. Next week will suck. It will be 45 and rainy. And hunting is over. That last part is mostly true, but we'll see how the first part turns out.

Oh, and go Seahawks! Kick Brady's whiny tail back to Uggville!




ravensbbr said...

Oh, and Mike Chev, as a Carroll County lifer, I hate to admit it over Deere's...but Kubota really does make good stuff. :-)

NeedaSnowday said...

#puppybowl!!!

With you on that BBR! Go Seahawks!

Westsidehideaway said...

Radar shows precip here. But nothing coming down. Settling in with the game and a Tito's martini, dry, and stirred, not shaken.

Unknown said...

Thanks Ravensbbr on the Kubota! GO Seattle !

ravensbbr said...

Westy, Agent 007 would be proud. And by Bond I mean Connery or Craig, all the others were posers...

ravensbbr said...

Mike, we should start an FFA chapter up here. Foot's Forecast of America (Carroll Chapter) :-)

BioPat said...

Seems as though we're all getting a little antsy for snow. I've given up any hopes for precip through Monday. I remain hopeful that next week we'll begin to see a pattern change. However, this is one of those years where the pattern has been tracking fairly consistently for several months now. Apparently Mother Nature has found a new groove and we are just about 50 miles too far south to join in the fun.

Westsidehideaway said...

Thanks BBR.

Still no precip here in West Bmore. Anybody seeing anything?

Lynch truly is....A Beast!!!

Westsidehideaway said...

Hmmm. Still no precip at 7:35 in West Bmore. At least the Seahawks are waking up. In my view, the halftime show should be Kenny Kravitz with a side of Katie. Not the other way around. Lenny Rocks. Maybe he can make it start snowing in Bmore.

ravensbbr said...

Zilch here in the highlands. Virga.

How the $*&%! do the 'Hawks put only a LB on Gronk?!? That alone should make it snow...

Foot's Forecast said...

Hey all, our questions about the SuperBowl commercials:

1. The JFK quote about salt concentration in our blood equal to the ocean? That is a new stat we never heard before.

2. Did the race car driver in the Nissan finally give up his fast life to spend time with the family...? Or was it just a cool Dad cameo thing for the weekend...

(Slow weather day in Baltimore...)

Adam Herb said...

Nissan commercial - I think the former (giving it up to come home...) Like the crash scared him into remembering what is important. At least that is what I remember from the one viewing!

Westsidehideaway said...

10:09 in West Baltimore. Wilson throws the game away and at almost the same time, it starts to snow. Hmmm. I'm going to try and forget the game now. I am much more interested in looking out the window and watching the radar!!

Flame said...

10:15 and snowing in Greenbelt. Surprised heck out me since it had gotten up to 40 earlier in the day, much to a kid's delight. Was expecting rain, based on what i saw on radar.

ravensbbr said...

Nissan: unsure. Mixed messages, did not impress me.

JFK: Like most things smug New Englanders say; wrong. Pretty sure ocean is around 3%, give or take dependant on location, while our blood is about .9%, ocean has higher sodium ratio as well.

Oh, and an inch or so of fresh and bucketing down here at 31 degrees and 1000 feet ASL. Waiting for rain to wash it away, hate shoveling small amounts of snow, can't use the John Deere for those...

NeedaSnowday said...

Yup, sidewalk and car covered..... Coincided with Seattle meltdown!

Anonymous said...

Not much could make this Pats win sweeter, but a 2 hour delay tomorrow would be a good start!

ravensbbr said...

I do believe Liam Neeson wins the 2015 SB Ads...

kyleZ said...

Pats nation baby plus it's snowing really hard what a great night