A Pattern For The Powderhound In You?

PART ONE: WEATHER SUMMARY NEXT 7 DAYS
As of 2:00 PM EST THU 1/28

• No significant winter precipitation expected in the Mid-Atlantic or Southeast through Wednesday 2/3.  A passing frontal boundary on Friday may bring occasional snow showers from central Virginia northward to central Pennsylvania;
• A vigorous Low off the Pacific coast will move to the Four Corners on Saturday, toward the central Plains by Monday and into the Great Lakes Tuesday. See map below for 7 PM EST Sunday 1/31. View short range loop here.
• 5 day NOAA liquid forecasts show the potential for 0.50" to 1.25" of rain is possible throughout the eastern third of the U.S. next Tue to Wed. If in areas where snow has blocked storm drains, if safely possible, it would be wise to clear the drains.

PART TWO: GHOSTS OF WINTERS PAST?

Long range indications show the next 30 days may be the 

most interesting many of us have seen in a long, long time.

Snowcover on January 24, 2016 - NOAA National Ice Center

Now let's compare to snowcover on January 24, 2010 as shown below.

What differences do you see? How might this affect the pattern going forward?

A Sight You Seldom See

ALTHOUGH NOT ALL ROADS LOOK THIS GOOD, 

MUCH PROGRESS IS UNDERWAY BY AN ARMY OF CREWS.

9:30 AM 1/25 - In midst of the snow recovery, we wish to take a moment and recognize road those AWESOME and HEROIC road crews: At the state level, in counties, cities, municipalities and the many many contractors large and small. They are the "stabilizer" in the recovery fuel of our region.  Need evidence? View Maryland Traffic Cameras here. 

FROM ALABAMA TO ALLENTOWN, thousands of snow removal workers and managers have been up 36-48 hours straight or more, with just an hour or two of sleep in between. The proof is in the powder, or lack of it, on major roadways. This storm dumped snow from Alabama to Maine! Take a look at the latest NOAA Storm Summary Report with snowfall totals. The scope, intensity and duration of this event is why it's east to call this a Historic Event. 
WHAT ABOUT MY STREET?!? Agreed. No doubt that many secondaries and many side streets still have a lot more to be cleared. But when you have 30" of snow in 24 hours, that's not a surprise. We all are human, and unless Optimus Prime and his crew are available, equipment does break occasionally. If you have the chance to safely bring a snack or drink to a road crew worker, they sure would appreciate it.
OFFICIAL NEWS: It was the snow of this life for BWI Airport, officially 29.2" as presented in this article by Baltimore Sun Reporter Scott Dance, to whom we send our thanks for including FF in the interviews. How much fell elsehwhere? Below is a preliminary estimate from NOAA:

For Maryland & Mid-Atlantic Readers

TODAY: Temps in most areas with snowcover not rising above 30 F until around 1 PM, but dropping after 5 PM. Your last good chance to get the kiddos out for sledding if you have the good fortune to be home with them. 

TONIGHT Temps hold in mid to upper 20s on south winds.
TUE 1/26 AM temps near 30 F will rise to 40 F by early afternoon. Light rain is expected from mid AM onward. We can't rule out rain arriving earlier and if so, it could easily become light freezing rain due to snowpack. We'll keep watch on it for you.
WED & BEYOND Rain from Tue is likely to refreeze in colder areas, making the AM commute still icy at times. Wednesday looks to be the most "normal" day of the week temp wise, highs in the mid to upper 30s, light NW winds and no daytime precip.
NEXT STORM? There remains some concern for a coastal system on Thursday, but updated indications as of 2 PM today show a more offshore solution. In our previous report from earlier today, we noted these points:

• The trend with many East coast systems this winter has been for some computer models to show the storms "just offshore" a few days out. The result was a tad more onshore than originally thought. 
• That is atmospheric variability for you, it is inexact and Earth has yet to produce a human being who can nail down exactly where a storm will be down to the mile even at 1 day out, let alone 4.
• Snow on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic is not a lock by far, but it is not ruled out either. The most probable call we can make at this stage is a 20-40% chance of some light snow in the eastern Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. Need some indication from others? Here is the NOAA Day 4-7 Experimental Winter Weather Outlook.

RESOURCES: You can explore this insightful suite of winter weather resources at the NOAA Weather Prediction Center in College Park, MD.

Finally, here's a sight mostly seen by those with snow.

From Maryland reader Ms Liz. A in Brunswick, MD: 32"

Sunday Snowfall Rollcall!

Photo from Ms. Rochel Schnur in central MD.

5:30 AM EST 1/24 - Ready for some good news? The Blizzard Warning for many areas of the 95 corridor has been canceled! The map is no longer red, now it's down to only your toes and finger tips!  

While the adrenaline coffee is brewing, let's start the Sunday Snowfall Rollcall! Let us know: 

1)   How much; 

2)   Location; 

3) How long you think it will take to clear that walkway/driveway/lot?

Remember the road crews and lot workers. Some have been on this straight since Friday afternoon with a few hours sleep if any at all. Consider offering them something-- cocoa, bottled water, a snack, or the most meaningful thing right now: Appreciation.

The FF Powderhounds

The Snow of your Life

4:30 AM EST 1/23 Winter Hurricane? Snow-nado? What's your one or two words to describe the scene outside?

One of the wildest radar reflectivities we've ever seen from earlier this morning shows the incredible intensity of this Big... er, ULTRA Kahuna now ripping across the region.

Believe it or not, snow rates and wind speeds may continue INCREASING the next few hours by daybreak, making 2010 seem Iike a flurry compared to the amazing strength of this storm. After sunrise, get ready to cue the thundersnow if you live anywhere east of I-81.

Tell us about the monster at work at your house, or you can share your pics to our Facebook page where there are a "few' readers. Just take it that photo safely from the window of course!)

THE COLORS ABOVE? The red/green in that top image shows how high a velocity the energy is moving toward and away from the Sterling NWS radar site, simultaneously. It's also something you normally see in tornadic radars, not snowstorms! There is no such thing as a snow-nado but in Hollywood that's what they would call it. Here in Maryland, they just call it normal-- about every 6 years or so.

The FF Powderhounds

A Storm of the First Order

THE EMPEROR WOULD BE PROUD

WINTER STORM WARNINGS FROM LOUISIANA TO PENNSYLVANIA 

• BLIZZARD WARNINGS FROM WASHINGTON TO NEW YORK
• UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS, SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT AM.
• WINDS OF 35 MPH+ FOR 12 HOURS OR MORE & THUNDERSNOW.
• DO NOT TRAVEL AFTER 7 PM IF POSSIBLE

TIMING & IMPACTS

• SNOWFALL & RATES. 2-3" an hour will be common from 11 PM Friday to 7 AM Saturday throughout the region from the middle and northern Eastern shore west to the DC/Baltimore region. If you anywhere between Richmond, VA and I-76 in PA, including the Eastern Shore of MD, 12-18" is possible on your doorstep by daybreak Saturday. Expect thundersnow tomorrow through Noon in areas bordering the Chesapeake Bay. Then the snow gets heavy. We are not making this up, honestly. See the impact timeline below.

• BLIZZARD CONDITIONS with winds sustained at 35 mph+ for up to 12 hours in some locations. Do not go outside. Get all your outdoor prep done today, yes even after you get home following a full day of work. Tell the kids to hunker down with a Tolstoy novel or a 5000 piece puzzle, and a flashlight. They'll have a blast. We're not trying to be cavalier, we're trying to make a point: No one under this storm will be going anywhere for a couple days. 

IMPACT TIMELINE

This is an example of advance reports available through our Insider Service. 

This one was issued with our update last night at 7:15

What Can You Do?

Stay calm. Be Patient With Others. Prepare. Communicate. Get Rest.

EXCELLENT WINTER STORM SAFETY CHECKLIST VIA THE CDC

11:30 AM EST 1/21  STORM TIMING & IMPACT SUMMARY

• BLIZZARD WARNINGS posted for the I-95 CORRIDOR FROM WASHINGTON TO PHILADELPHIA AND THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE for 12-18" of snow near and along the Chesapeake Bay. 18-24" for inland areas north and west of I-95.
• Higher amounts are possible in areas where the heaviest snow bands develop.
• This will be an extremely dangerous and life threatening storm. 
• Please make the necessary preparations to protect your family and property.

FORECAST OVERVIEW: ALONG & WEST OF I-95 TO THE BLUE RIDGE & NORTHERN VIRGINIA & SOUTHERN PA. AREAS OF THE EASTERN SHORE IN NEXT SECTION.

Please consult your NWS point and click forecasts for the latest official statements.

This is not a drill.

This is not a drill.

DANGEROUS AND HIGH IMPACT STORM TO AFFECT

ENTIRE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CORRIDOR 
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW & STRONG WINDS

BLIZZARD WATCH POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF BALTIMORE / 
WASHINGTON METRO - NORTHERN VIRGINIA & SOUTHERN MD

• SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OVER A 12-HOUR PERIOD OR MORE WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT POWER OUTAGES AND LOW VISIBILITY, MAKING TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE IN AFFECTED AREAS.

• MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SHORE, STORM SURGES OF 3-5 FEET PROJECTED FOR COASTAL MD - DE - NJ. 

• BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW IN NORTHERN AREAS OF THE WATCH WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER DUE TO COLDER TEMPS.

• TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S DURING AND AFTER THE STORM WILL CREATE REFREEZING OF ANY AREAS CLEARED OF SNOW.

WINTER STORM SAFETY RESOURCES

Visit NOAA Winter Storm Safety Page for more details

You knew this day would come, again.

You knew this day would come, again.

FROM THE NOAA WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER:

• "HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A MAJOR WINTER STORM INCLUDING HEAVY SNOWS FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON DC TO NEW YORK AND BOSTON FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...
• THE LOW'S ANTICIPATED TRACK AND SWATH OF HIGH LIQUID EQUIVALENTS SUPPORTING 1 TO 2 FEET NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-95. 
• FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST ARE ALSO LIKELY. COASTAL FLOODING AND OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO MARINE INTERESTS."

5:00 PM EST 1/19 - Our revised Storm Impact Scenarios & Map will be posted with the next update around 8:00 PM this evening. 


9:35 AM EST 1/19 (Forecaster Connor & the Winter Stormcast Team) There's no easy way to break the news. A potentially major storm may affect the entire region starting Friday into Sunday. Below we have prepared our most current scenarios based on the best available information at present. Our analysis is presented in three categories: Track, Liquid, Wind. 

Word is getting around.

Word is getting around.

SIGNIFICANT TO HIGH IMPACT COASTAL STORM BECOMING MORE 
PROBABLE FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC 

LAST TIME OUR TEAM SAW WHAT IS ON CURRENT COMPUTER 
MODELS WAS ABOUT ... 6 YEARS AGO. YOU DO THE MATH.

6:30 PM EST 1/18 - Preliminary Scenario Map for Friday 1/22 into Saturday 1/23.  

"Where you stand depends on where you sit."

- Business maxim # 1 of Miles' Law by Rufus Miles, Jr.

• CHANGES COMING: First of several fast-moving cold fronts sweep in Sunday then Tuesday, ushering in a sharp temperature drop for the Mid-Atlantic into next Friday.

• NEXT STORM? Computer models beginning to show a potentially significant coastal event for Friday 1/22 into Saturday 1/23. The map below pertains to a southern coastal on Sunday 1/17 to remain south of the Mid-Atlantic. 

7:00 AM EST 1/17 - Big Changes On The Way This Week:

1) The first of several fast-moving cold fronts sweep through on Sunday then Tuesday, ushering in sharp temperature drop for the entire region through next Thursday.

2) Sunday night may feature passing snow squalls that could douse us with a dusting, especially for areas bordering the Chesapeake Bay and the Eastern Shore.

3) Overnight into Monday, Arctic High pressure takes control. Highs by Monday don't break 25 F, with AM lows in the teens through Wednesday. Toss in winds of 25 mph for a day and a half, it'll feel like a real-life version of a Shakespearean quote about the ilk of a nasty winter's vengeance.

4) The Next Storm? Computer models project rising potential for a coastal winter weather event starting next Friday 1/22.  What we can say thus far is guided by current long range indicators, depending on where you sit - may be a bonus or a bane. Details below:

A Promise of Future Powder?

Improving Opportunity For Accumulating Snow Late Next Week

Full Details Today via the Insider Weekly. Register To Join The Journey.

Fluffs of cloud-like snow on a wood grained "sky"
Photo by central Maryland reader Jeff Perkins

6:24 AM 1/14 - If you managed to capture falling fractals Tuesday night (or any other time), we welcome your photos for future posts. 

What's interesting to note in the photo is how the snowflakes have a fair amount of fluff and substance, not tiny ice crystals. 

It's an indication that despite dry air and marginal moisture, the right ingredients assembled in this brief time period to produce a snow type that can clump together, aiding in accumulation.


Photos may be submitted via a post on the Facebook forecast page for central Maryland or by email to team@footsforecast.org.

• TODAY - Sunrise temps in the mid 20s across the area will be cooled by winds of 10 mph at times, but at least highs will climb to the low and mid 40s across the region. 

• FRIDAY into SUNDAY - The pattern that can't win for losing looks to score another win for someone else. A cold rain arrives late Friday and continues into Sunday. Some areas of northwest Maryland and central PA could see gloppy wet snow, but us metro dwellers will have to contend with just cold and damp.

• NEXT WEEK - Passage of the weekend system will usher in below normal temperatures once again. An Arctic front arrives on Sunday, bringing very cold conditions for Monday through Thursday. The next best opportunity for accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic comes Thursday night 1/21 into Friday 1/22. Updated details on this rising potential will be issued in today's Weekly Insider. To become a subscriber and be in the know before the snow, preview the advantages at our Insider's registry page. 

Hope ahead for wintry wonderers. Take note that each passing event has been bringing the long range pattern into closer alignment for a significant coastal event. This may just have to be a case of "good things come to those who can wait."

The FF Winter Stormcast Team

The winds of Winter hasten their return.

4:30 PM MON 1/11 - Surely you felt the vengeance of that wicked wind from Sunday night. By the time you read this, those sword-freezing wisps of cold will be hastening their return to the land on Tuesday. 

This front of cold heralds arrival of another major turning point in our seasonal plot toward a stormy pattern ahead.

TUESDAY into WEDNESDAY 
A clipper crosses through on Tuesday in daytime, granting the Night Watch a reprieve. Rumors of snow on this day to befall the region may come true, albeit not enough to satisfy eager young lads and lasses seeking a respite from the books (or we gather, their masters.) 

• Still, squalls of snow are expected before twilight on Tuesday, which may confound evening travelers from central Pennsylvania on south to the DC metro region.
• Winds expected to gust above 30 mph at times Tuesday night into Wednesday

BEYOND THE WALL - Chill continues to grip the land for nights ahead, and before long the spectre of new storms brewing from afar may challenge the plans of many. Fear not, fellow Powderhounds, we are certain this winter will bring more than dry harsh weather and trees without leaves. If you are not afraid of what lies beyond the Wall, we will relay the foreknowledge in due time.

Fan art for Game of Thrones. Image credit

"I can be as contrary as I want..."

-Lady Violet Crawley, Countess Dowager of Grantham in Downton Abbey
(clean Video highlights of Lady Violet's linguistic moments)

6:00 AM 1/7 - For Downton Abbey watchers, we cannot help but see a bit of Lady Grantham in the recent doings of Mother Nature. Surely you would not jest.

Consider how stoic and uncooperative she has been of late: In two weeks, those of us in the Mid-Atlantic will have seen a temperature transference from the 70s on Christmas Day, with occasional tropical deluges at times, to recent readings in the New Year uncomfortably close to the calendar date (such as near 10 F in parts of Frederick County Tue AM). 

If you seek temperature consistency to avoid the colds and flus that follow such Yo-Yo weather, we agree it is quite the horrid and contrarian pattern in present times. Is there any hope for stability? 

THE WEEKEND & AFTER

• Temperatures Thursday into Sunday climb from the 40s for most into the mid 50s and perhaps 60 F along the coast. This mild surge will of course be accompanied by rain, and lots of it, arriving Friday afternoon continuing into Sunday.

• The roller ride resumes early next week, with an Arctic front crossing Sunday afternoon, dropping temperatures 25 degrees or more to the low 30s by Monday morning. Then overnight lows return to their proper place in the 20s. 

ALAS, DEAR POWDERHOUNDS, we know your heart pumps more than just blood.

If snow is what you seek, the truth of the matter is you will have to remain patient a scant longer for it, unfortunately. 

Soon follow is a report for outlining the types of storm and conditions required to deliver the powder of your pleasure. We call it "the Four C's of Real Snow" for the Mid-Atlantic. 

Do check back today for the next part, it will be an important guide to resolving uncertainty on when the pattern can make good on it's winter promise. 


DIRECT WINTER INTELLIGENCE. If you have trusted our reports and seek efficient, direct notification by text & email for long range and imminent winter hazards, we recommend the Insiders service. 

If you have a moment, preview the details at the Insiders portal. We look forward to welcoming you aboard for the journey ahead.

The Insiders Team of Foot's Forecast 

Winter's Chill Strikes Back

• Northwest flow today of 10 mph will keep conditions feeling much colder;

• AM lows Tue-Thu in the teens region-wide, daytime highs 30-35 F most areas;

• Rain approaching the DC-Baltimore-northern Virginia region Friday may start as light freezing precip early Friday morning, before turning to all rain. 

• A pattern change toward more stormy conditions is in the offing after this weekend, with factors becoming more favorable for snow next week.

Need direct access to winter intelligence?

This season, we invite you to consider becoming an Insider with us. 

Advance reports direct to text and email hours or days before public updates, dispense with wading through social media for critical details, and retain civility in the conversation. 

Preview the details at our Insider's portal. 

We look forward to welcoming you for the winter journey ahead. 

"Oh the times, they are a-changing." - Bob Dylan

Advance reports to text & email: This year, be an Insider

8:00 AM EST 1/1 - As we ring in the New Year, eastern U.S. weather watchers know big changes in the pattern are looming on the horizon. A new change this month will be the option to access our reports through custom apps for clients, Insiders and readers alike.

For now, if you enjoyed the BBQ-like weather featured at Thanksgiving and Christmas in the east, but are ready for a return to cold, your wish is about to be granted. 

Although snow cover in Canada and across the northern U.S. has severely hampered winter-dependent industries, long range indications show a series of Arctic Highs will begin moving southward in the next 2 weeks. These initial Highs will usher in seasonal temperatures, and for those yearning to see snow on slopes or streets, reintroduce one of several critical pre-requisites for accumulation: Frozen ground surfaces. 

Want Snow? First, Freeze The Surface. Given the long period of above-normal temperatures, this process will take many overnights of sub-32 F conditions to refreeze the ground. 

• However, the U.S. Hazards Map from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center as shown above indicate the pattern is reaching a crucial turning point for winter.
• Once snow cover can appreciably build in traditional regions such as the Great Lakes regions, southern Ontario, Pennsylvania, New York and New England.
• Consistent snow cover increases capacity of Arctic Highs to position for longer periods of time in "storm-favorable" locations. 

As the old-school meteorologist saying goes, "Predict the High and you predict the storm." Yet, some need more details than that, and it's time for new options.

This Year, Advance Your Access To Our Reports: 

Become an Insider

As technology increases the pace of life, we know readers wish to retain authentic connections to reliable, uncomplicated information.

Ever notice when automated apps couldn't portray rapid weather changes? Many times, the careful analysis you need only trained human eyes can deliver. 

If you have trusted us all these years to do just that, we recommend gently advancing your access to the next level. 


New World Problem, Authentic Solution. We offer a resource that retains your connection to real forecasters seeing the same weather you are. Automated data is a useful resource, but programs that operate your apps don't permit the level of customization that's central to our approach. As an Insider, you're being advised by real people who can interpret what's coming in a way computers were not designed to do.

We cordially invite you to join the many readers who are Insiders with us. Read further to see if this service would be of value to you.